Let’s look at how the Patriots match up against the other playoff teams in the AFC.
Buffalo Bills
Beat them in Buffalo this year and almost beat them last year with Cam as QB. Orchard Park conditions suit the Patriots way more than the pass happy Bills. If the game was in Foxboro the Patriots would be at a major disadvantage as the Bills can beat them with their passing attack, but the Bills pretty much won the division so the Patriots will be the road team if they are to face Buffalo.
Tennessee Titans
Crushed them a few weeks ago. Even with Julio Jones and Derrick Henry back, the Patriots should still be able to win as they have one of the best defences in the league. Patriots can stack the box on Henry and force Ryan Tannehill to beat them with his arm, and I don’t think he’s capable of doing that.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patriots always play them tough and in fact could’ve won in Arrowhead last year if Cam Newton wasn’t out with COVID.
Patrick Mahomes has struggled against Bill Belichick in the past. A much better ground and pass game this year combined with the fact that the Chiefs aren’t as good as last season should give the Patriots a good chance to win.
Cincinnati Bengals
QBs facing Belicheck for the first time always struggle. Joe Burrow has not yet faced the Patriots in his career. Plus, the Bengals haven’t won a playoff game in forever.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots beat them earlier this year and shut them out last year. Justin Herbert struggled against Belichick both times. Also, Herbert is not used to playing in freezing cold weather so if Patriots host the Chargers for a playoff game that should be a big advantage for New England.
Las Vegas Raiders
Don’t think they’ll make the playoffs, but they have never fared well against Belichick, and there’s no reason to think they will this time around as they’ve had a lacklustre end to the season.
The only team that scares me is the Colts. Frank Reich is 2-0 against Belichick, and after a slow start, they have been one of the best teams in the league. Also, Colts have one of the most underrated defences in the league and the Patriots can’t rely on their run game to beat them, meaning Mac Jones is going to have to throw the ball a lot.
Plus, the Indianapolis offence is perfectly suited to beat the Patriots’ defence. The Patriots have to pick their poison – either stop Jonathan Taylor, or the Colts’ passing attack.
Carson Wentz is more than capable of beating the Patriots with his arm. If the Patriots play the Colts at home, they should have a chance to win due to the weather factor, but going on the road and beating the Colts will be a very tough ask.
So, as long as the Patriots can avoid playing Indianapolis, they should have a good chance to make Super Bowl LVI.
Sheikh
Roar Rookie
Well, the Patriots got in as #6 and will be meeting #3 Buffalo; so if your reasoning is correct, they can beat Buffalo away. Then, as #6 seed (unless Pittsburgh can beat Kansas at Arrowhead - let's say not) the Patriots will travel to Tennessee (#1 seed) who appear to have Derrick Henry back. You think they can beat them (I'm not convinced!) If the Patriots do beat Tennessee, then they'll meet either Kansas or the winner of Cincinnati and the Raiders (I refuse to call them Las Vegas!) I think the Bengals might win their 1st post-season game in 30 years, but their 2nd will be tougher (at Arrowhead). Either way, the Patriots will have to travel to Arrowhead or Paul Brown Stadium. Your argument against Kansas has some merits (but at Arrowhead I think they're probably too tough a side). I can spot a hole in your argument for beating the Bengals, though. QBs facing Belichek for the first time might struggle, but Burrow isn't playing like normal QB; 2nd year QBs don't generally play like he is. Although possibly a better argument against the Bengals here is that they'd have to win 3 games in a row to win this match-up, and they've only done that one this season, when playing severely under-manned Broncos and Ravens sides!
E-Meter
Roar Rookie
Jones is still too raw. I hope they go all the way but really can’t see it happening.
Kanggas2
Roar Rookie
Patriots won the Super Bowl slightly less then 3 seasons ago . But unlikely this year. They could certainly win a wildcard game.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Not the way the TB defense has been playing
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Most likely Chargers in the WC, then road games at Tennessee and KC Defenses will just stack the box and force Jones to beat them. Not even the NE coaches trust Jones They haven't won a playoff game in 3 seasons
JGK
Roar Guru
So the real Super Bowl will Bucs v Packers in the NFC Championship game?
Ayian
Roar Rookie
I’m not a Patriots fan either and in fact I’d love to see them lose (as I support the Jets), but from an unbiased perspective facing them in the playoffs will be tough for most teams. I’m confident that the Colts will be able to handle them though. Good luck to you guys in the playoffs
Pete Samu's Tucked Shirt
Roar Rookie
As a Colts fan I'm very happy to have beaten Belichick twice, though I'm still not entirely comfortable with Wentz. If the opposition takes away Taylor's running game Wentz usually struggles... I'm a big fan of Mac Jones and his maturity to slot in and do his job. Belching is doing a fine role of nurturing Jones. It would be incredible to see them push for a Superbowl berth, only to fall to the Colts in the AFC championship game hehe ;)