The easy way to frame Manly’s chances of success in 2022 stretch as far as Tom Trbojevic’s hamstrings can carry them.
It’s clear there’s a strong link between the troublesome muscles that put the Turbo in Tom and the Sea Eagles’ winning record but their rejuvenation under Des Hasler has been deeper than that.
Without going down the well-trodden path of Hasler being the mad scientist, the underlying formula to Manly’s success last season was the emergence of some top-quality prospects coupled with career-best years for a few journeymen.
The main element in the Sea Eagles finishing just one game shy of the grand final was of course the astonishing form of Trbojevic, who is easily the most influential player in the NRL in terms of one player’s impact on their team.
Second-rowers Josh Schuster and Haumole Olakauatu are representative stars of the not-too-distant future, if Jason Saab doesn’t become the quickest winger in the NRL he could definitely be one of the most dangerous while centre Morgan Harper’s rise meant a potential match-winner in Moses Suli was deemed surplus to requirements.
Going back to the Hasler lab cliche, Schuster would be the kind of player Professor Des would create if he could go full Dr Frankenstein.
As a former five-eighth, he has the skills of a playmaker with the new-found size of a forward. Going back to his first dual premiership-winning stint at Manly and during his time at the Dogs over six largely successful seasons, Hasler has loved having big guys who could pass skilfully before the line – Glenn Stewart, George Rose, James Graham, Sam Kasiano and Jake Trbojevic.
Schuster fits that mould and at 20 with his first full season under his belt, he is set to take another step in his rapid development, giving another point of attack to take the load off the Trbojevic brothers and captain Daly Cherry-Evans.
Olakau’atu relies less on skill and more on a combination of raw speed and strength to be more of a prototypical modern-day edge forward.
If you were asked which player had the best winning percentage with Manly last season, you’d be mad not to immediately think of Tom Trbojevic, the Dally M Medal winner who had one of the greatest individual years in recent memory.
But the correct answer is Olakau’atu. Manly won 13 of 18 games with Turbo in their team but their record with the now 23-year-old forward was 16 victories from 21 outings.
Manly have been plotting Olakauatu’s ascension to first grade for a few years and last season he proved their planning was spot on.
(Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)
After missing the opening month with an elbow injury, he timed his return perfectly to coincide with their star fullback’s delayed start and was integral to their surge from the cellar into the playoffs, which ended at the preliminary final stage by South Sydney.
While young guns like Saab and Harper also fired out wide, Manly’s cast of journeymen and supposed has-beens were also part of their drive into premiership contention.
Kieran Foran filled his role at five-eighth as he was finally able to string together his first season of 20 games or more since 2014 – he ended up with 25. Dylan Walker accepted a role as a bench utility and despite still only being 27, he seems to have lost speed off the mark but has adapted to now be most suited as a lock in the loose forward style which is now back in vogue.
Throw in improvements from centre Brad Parker, winger Reuben Garrick, Lachlan Croker settling in at hooker and the Sea Eagles will roll into the new season with pretty much the same squad.
They should be genuine contenders for the title again but they can’t, and won’t, rely solely on Trbojevic – even if he is somehow able to recreate his stunning 2021 success, ideally over a full season, Manly’s chances of qualifying for their first grand final since 2013 depend on so much more than their No.1 gun.
What’s new
Manly have been among the least active clubs on the market for the past couple of years and have only added Broncos forward Ethan Bullemor to their squad for 2022. They’ve lost some forward depth with Jack Gosiewski signing with the Dragons and Curtis Sironen heading to St Helens after an injury-interrupted end to his time at Manly. Centre Moses Suli has also gone to St George Illawarra and utility Cade Cust joined Wigan but neither player was in Des Hasler’s top 17 by season’s end in 2020.
Star on the rise
The third Trbojevic boy rolled off the production line into the Manly NRL side in 2021, with Ben getting four games midway through the season. A NSW representative at under-16 and under-18 level, the 20-year-old centre should get more opportunities this season now that Moses Suli has left for the Dragons.
Who’s under the pump
Josh Aloiai was at the centre of all kinds of drama when he engineered an early exit last year from the Wests Tigers to sign a three-year deal with Manly, who had high hopes of him filling the gigantic void left by Addin Fonua-Blake’s switch to the Warriors. His season was disrupted by a hand injury but when he was available, the prop started in only nine of his 16 appearances. Aloiai’s go-forward with fellow Samoan international Martin Taupau will be crucial to Manly’s chances of going further in 2022.
Best-case scenario
If you squint you could see Manly holding up the trophy on grand final night but for that to happen they would not only need Tom Trbojevic to replicate his Dally M season and Daly Cherry-Evans to continue his impressive late-career form, they’d need a rising star like Josh Schuster to take another leap and become an elite player in this competition.
Worst-case scenario
The obvious answer here is that Trbojevic is again hampered by hamstring injuries and recent history shows, when he is out of the line-up, Manly struggle. With a top-heavy salary cap with DCE and the Turbo brothers chewing up a large chunk, coach Des Hasler needs to keep getting value for money out of the lesser lights on this roster.
Round 1 predicted team
1. Tom Trbojevic
2. Jason Saab
3. Brad Parker
4. Morgan Harper
5. Reuben Garrick
6. Kieran Foran
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Josh Aloiai
9. Lachlan Croker
10. Martin Taupau
11. Josh Schuster
12. Haumole Olakau’atu
13. Jake Trbojevic
14. Dylan Walker
15. Taniela Paseka
16. Ethan Bullemor
17. Sean Keppie
Others: Morgan Boyle, Andrew Davey, Sione Fainu, Tolutau Koula, Toff Sipley, Jorge Taufua, Karl Lawton, Ben Trbojevic, Christian Tuipulotu, Alec Tu’itavake
Dave
Guest
If Manlys older players can hold on for another couple of years till Fainu, Koula & Weeks get some games under their belt they’ll be sitting pretty good for a spell at the top of the competition. Worry is both DCE and Foran getting older and roughly the same age
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I'd like to give Madge a lot of praise as well, thanks for rejecting Manly's advances and going to the Tigers.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
All reserve grade standard at best. Please don't put them on the same level as Turbo
souvalis
Roar Rookie
OK, all fair opinion. Basing things purely on last season; As good as we know David F. can be I'd be very surprised if many agreed that he and Proctor had better consistent seasons than the Manly backrow who both had breakouts. By R14 the coach had benched Dave, rare that an edge doesn't play 80, where he remained and Kevin had his worst ever season with the last 6 games or so given miserable minutes. I wasn't aware I was blaming injuries for anything. Just making the point that in Round 4, not just 1 but 3 key players returned simultaneously. My main argument for Cleary is Tom basically belted up weaker opponents and turned what would have been 10 or 15 point wins into 20 or 30 point differentials rather than actually winning games alone. But had Nathan not played they wouldn't have beaten Melbourne in the Final and without doubt, wouldn't have beaten Souths to win the Premiership among minor victories along the way. That's far greater impact than ripping up the Dogs, Cowboys, Titans and a Ravaged Rooster.
mushi
Roar Guru
Apologies for the snarkiness. The injuries thing is that you keep referring to others being injured (generally the next tier of player) as a reason for team performance when those injuries are wide spread their relative impact is mitigated. The core issue here being is Turbo more influential in that manly side than any other player. You referenced the edges as part of the reason and them being injured. Hence I referenced the secondary injuries of other clubs after taking out a key player. On the Manly edge forwards I don't buy it. They don’t even combine for Fifita’s line breaks despite defences keying turbo. Fifita plus a random bench back rower off the street is a more dangerous combination of edge forwards. On numbers they’re overweight “hockey assists” versus other edges which to me suggests they’re probably being over credited with Tom’s season. That married the naked eye watching was that Turbo created metaphorical paddocks of space for which ever edge he ran down. Also in the games at the start of the year that he missed the inability to start sets or have any sweeping punch seemed like reasons 1 through 10 that they were struggling. Now could Shuster develop - sure - but looking like he could be graham and being Graham are different. Even if he does develop I still see no credible argument against removing 2021 Tom from a team has to have more impact than any other player.
mushi
Roar Guru
Apologies I attributed the wrong comment to you on the Eels Souvalis.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
'I must admit though with Newcastle having the equal #1 pack and best centres and Manly the most dangerous edge, and your upbeat view on the eels. the Storm and Panthers are going to struggle to make the top 4.' As opposed to you picking up the stat sheet and kicking every team in the teeth solely based on it. I'm just saying they're not that bad and look for positives and potential from what week in week out game observation tells me. Tommy was great, but, ok using the sheet, he scored more than 50% of his tries in just 5 games, had 44 tackle breaks and 10 try assists in just 3 games. It happens when you belt sides 66-0. 56-10 and a handful of plus 40's. Against the weak teams he was God like... Cherry's stat sheet is overall better than half of the year J. Hughes' and made Saab resemble something of a rugby league finisher. His role wasn't appreciated as much as it deserved. When I say 'arguable' it means pretty much it was the best in league of those who played there over the full course of the '21 season. So, not sure how that injury list grays the back row ranking or whatever its purpose is. Storm, Penrith like 'em a lot.
mushi
Roar Guru
He was great previously, but his production last year was off the charts. His numbers last year were closer to the prior two years per games combined so like you were getting 160 minutes a game of "Great" instead of 80 (though adjusting for the scoring rate more like 130-140 minutes) If you replace what he did last year with James Tedesco (including the health) and Manly's try scoring suddenly looks like the Titans
mushi
Roar Guru
Not sure turbo had the equivalent year in 2017. Last year he was ridiculous. No team had one player account for anything near what he did for the attack in terms of line breaks per game and tries per game, weather it be a percentage of the team's out put or just raw per game numbers.
mushi
Roar Guru
For starters basic logic says tom G’s premise doesn’t work. Turbo had clearly the most influential season last year right. That seems to be consistent with the plaudits he (deservedly) received. So even in a vacuum him not being available likewise has to have the most impact Especially if doing a comparison to the best player on teams with similar or better seasons. For instance Comparing his influence last year to Teddy – in roughly ~20% less games he still had more than a quarter more of an involvement rate in tries for the entire season and above a third in line breaks! On a game adjusted basis it becomes above half and shade under two thirds. That’s before thinking that surely teddy would have had to do more given 2/3 of the rest of his first choice spine didn’t play. How can anyone say removing just both of those players has anything approaching an equitable effect on their teams. Even after accounting for “intangibles” (which would be harsh on TT) I’ll take the 50% more linebreaks thanks. The only possible way you could get there is to say there will be huge mean reversion, and last year was partially a fluke for turbo. But then has the same effect as they’re taking some of 2021 turbo out with some other injury or other malady. On the vs Cleary assessment that tom G made - I think he only played one more regular season game than turbo and I think we’ve able to say Penrith probably had the better year? The injury thing is a red herring, everyone had players out. As explained previously last year was the highest injury rate year Souths– Mitchell played fewer games that TT with Murray Tatola same or fewer than the “most dangerous edge” (arguably anything is arguable if your threshold is low enough) Storm – Pap played fewer and grant, finucane, munster, welch, bromwich and NAS around the same or fewer as the “most dangerous edge” Roosters – Teddy played more (with less effect) but Collins, Morris, Keary, Friend combined played less along with Radley, Crichton, individually less. I must admit though with Newcastle having the equal #1 pack and best centres and Manly the most dangerous edge, and your upbeat view on the eels. the Storm and Panthers are going to struggle to make the top 4.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Manly looked second rate WITH Turbo playing at the start of 2017 and then flogged the Cows in QLD with Turbo in the team as well. The team is clearly much better with Turbo around but it's possible we would have started poorly in 2021 even if he was playing, it's happened before.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
But it wasn't just Tom missing. Manly played thru those losses with Davy, Sironen and Jack Gos. in the backrow. Schuster and Haumole , who began their seasons the same week as Tom in the Round 6 Titan demolition, went on to become arguably the most dangerous edge coupling in the league .
Chris
Guest
People seem to forget that Tommy was incredible before last season also. He just didn't play anywhere neat enough footy.
mushi
Roar Guru
Not sure that’s entirely true though. The Eagles looked second rate without Tom. Do we think the panthers lose by 20+ points to the Dragons missing just cleary? Or the roosters in last spot with just tedesco out (but keary, Collins etal back) I think they’re definitely “more” than those examples
Choppy Zezers
Roar Rookie
Just keep Turbo fit and ready for origin. He can sacrifice say 20 + games for his club. His older brother though is turning into a bit of a plodder. A gun tackler but sheesh he's a bit Aidan Tolman taking a hit-up. Sorry, Aidan.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
Fair point it would be interesting to see the win loss ratio for those teams without their star. I think Turbo's absence is more noticeable because of how he scores so many tries too. Tedesco is more of a running fullback and Cleary sets up tries.
keep it real
Roar Rookie
Des gets a lot of praise, but it really should go to Tom. Without Tom, Des is left mumbling at the after game media as to why they lost.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The rest of the squad is a lot more inspiring than the rest of the squad in 2011 in my opinion Paul. That's the last year won the title. Koula is the fastest player in the comp allegedly.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Wade Graham is setting the breadcrumbs to follow down his path as a half transitioned to international, club captain, ball playing left edge. Needs a short kicking game to get there.
Tony
Roar Guru
:laughing: