Newcastle are possibly the hardest team to predict in 2022 with their halves quandary, Kalyn Ponga’s fluctuations and their inconsistency over the past two seasons adding up to a side whose results could vary wildly.
If all goes right on the Knights, they could challenge for the top four but an injury or two and they could not only miss the top eight but end up way down near the bottom of the ladder.
Their hopes have already been dealt a massive blow with co-captain Jayden Brailey out long term after suffering an Achilles tear in pre-season training, meaning Chris Randell or perhaps utility Kurt Mann will take over at hooker.
Mitchell Pearce’s exit midway through the off-season for Catalans leaves a hole in the halves and apart from Dragons recruit Adam Clune, they have not yet bolstered their playmaking options.
Clune is an interesting proposition – a late bloomer who made his NRL debut two seasons ago at 24, he racked up 25 games without ever consolidating a spot at St George Illawarra.
Unless the Knights make a late signing, he is likely to suit up alongside Jake Clifford in a new-look halves combo. Both players have potential and are strong across areas like organising, game management, passing and kicking, but for the Knights to rise up the ladder, their fullback can’t take a back seat.
Jake Clifford. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
For all his supreme natural talent, Ponga still doesn’t seem to get involved enough in the on-field action.
By no means should he become a primary playmaker but his involvement in attacking raids needs to rise in quantity to match the unquestionable quality.
Entering his sixth year with 83 NRL appearances under his belt, Ponga is no longer a player of great potential – the 23-year-old is entering the prime of his career.
Last season was another injury-interrupted one but his line breaks were down, his running metres dropped nearly 30 metres on average, and he came up with a couple fewer passes per game.
If these numbers don’t trend upwards, Newcastle’s ladder position will head downwards.
After a painful rebuild over four years, the Knights have made the first round of the finals the past two seasons without ever really threatening to become legitimate title contenders.
For coach Adam O’Brien, the prospect of getting the best out of Ponga relates to their main problem – scoring points.
Only wooden spooners Canterbury registered fewer points than Newcastle last season with the Knights ranked 11th in line break assists, 12th in line breaks, 13th in tackle breaks, 14th in try assists and 15th in decoy runs.
They were too safe. Their defence was more than solid and they gave away the lowest number of penalties in the league but that kind of approach can only get you so far – an even win-loss record and scraping into the playoffs.
Dane Gagai’s return after a four-year stint at South Sydney should give the Knights more strike power out wide but their other centre, Bradman Best, is likely to produce more points.
Both he and Ponga have had their development stifled by injuries but if they can string a run of games together and throw in a noted hole-runner in second-rower Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Newcastle’s left edge will provide the potency they’ve been sadly lacking.
What’s new
Dane Gagai has returned after four seasons with South Sydney, instantly ending their search to find a centre partner for Bradman Best. Clune has also headed north from St George Illawarra to replace Pearce after he opted to end his career in the south of France. With no other new recruits and Connor Watson (Roosters), Josh King (Storm), Gehamat Shibasaki (Japanese rugby) and Blake Green (retired) no longer at the club, O’Brien will lean on Newcastle’s famed production line to provide depth.
Star on the rise
Jake Clifford has been tipped for big things since starting for the Junior Kangaroos in 2018, the year he made his NRL debut for the Cowboys. After moving to the Hunter midway through last season, he played second fiddle to Pearce in the halves but now it’s his time to become Newcastle’s chief playmaker. His Australian youth teammates like Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Zac Lomax have become established stars, Clifford needs to do the same for Newcastle to succeed in 2022.
Who’s under the pump
David Klemmer was undoubtedly the best prop in the game a couple of years ago but he has fallen back in the pack behind Payne Haas, Storm veteran Jesse Bromwich, Raiders enforcer Josh Papalii and Newcastle teammate Jacob Saifiti.
Best-case scenario
After making first-round finals exits the past two years, it’s hard to see the Knights going any higher next year unless Ponga is healthy all season and produces quality performances pretty much every week. Their pack is one of the best in the NRL and Gagai solves a problem area at centre.
Worst-case scenario
The halves are a problem area and with Pearce finishing his career in France, it means Newcastle head into the season with Clifford and Clune as their likely starting playmakers. Generating points was a major issue for the Knights last season and these two aren’t renowned as attacking dynamos so they could drop out of the finals equation unless Ponga can conjure up plenty of line breaks.
Round 1 predicted team
1. Kalyn Ponga
2. Enari Tuala
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Hymel Hunt
6. Jake Clifford
7. Adam Clune
8. David Klemmer
9. Chris Randall
10. Daniel Saifiti
11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon
12. Tyson Frizell
13. Mitchell Barnett
14. Kurt Mann
15. Jacob Saifiti
16. Sauaso Sue
17. Brodie Jones
Others: Phoenix Crossland, Bailey Hodgson, Jack Johns, Jacob Kiraz, Jirah Momoisea, Brayden Musgrove, Simi Sasagi, Pasami Saulo, Starford To’a, Dominic Young, Jayden Brailey
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Interesting article Paul. And obviously sparked some spicy debate :silly: I know it's a minor point in your article, but I did a bit of a double take when you said David Klemmer had fallen behind Jessie Bromwich. Klem is not the dominant force he was a few years back, but his stats still trample all over Bromwich. I think the only relevant area where Bromwich outpoints him is offloads. From less starts Klemmer made more run meters (1,000 more!) more tackle breaks and tackles and less errors and missed tackles. If I was AOB and I had to choose between them, I'd stick with Klemmer 100%.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
When you say influence on his side's performance are you referring to the fact the Knights haven't finished higher than 7th on the last 4 years? Just wanted to clarify. I think he is ok, but a bit overrated as in my opinion he doesn't deliver consistently. Player of the year awards and Dally M votes don't reflect much. The Dally Ms is heavily flawed system. But as you say everyone has a different opinion and this is the perfect forum to express them
Don
Roar Rookie
Paul, Your example of what is on Wikipedia about Tedesco and your comments about Trbojevic are exactly what is happening with Ponga. People are discussing and have an opinion about him being overrated, not involved, overpriced etc. But outside of internet fan forums you’ll see scant criticism of him from those in the game. Andrew Johns commented in 2020 that he needs to evolve his game… It’s all online and keyboard experts who bag him. Same as when Tedesco was going to Canberra years ago and some commenters were saying he was overrated. Most experts say that Newcastle has an over reliance on Ponga and that there’s a coaching game style problem and talent issue in other positions.
Don
Roar Rookie
You’ve not hit a nerve. You’re simply bagging a guy who’s clearly a very good player and evidence in stats, player awards, his influence on his side’s performance etc all points to him being top tier. But because you don’t rate him everyone who does rate him must be wrong in their opinion. And because you “can’t remember him dominating a season” (he was consistently outstanding in 2018 and 2020) he’s branded as “overrated.” Everyone is entitled to an opinion so knock yourself out and bag whoever you want. That’s the outlet these forums provide. Good chat.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
I’d ask the same question of Tom T. in ‘21.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
Yes I know what I wrote. The Knights have finished 7th twice and 11th twice in the last 4 seasons. My point is valid. He's their best attacking weapon but is vastly overrated. When he guides the Knights to a top 4 finish I'll rate him
Don
Roar Rookie
He’s easily their best attacking weapon. You realise you've previously said he "Has one or two outstanding games a year and goes missing for too long." This is in a side where Mitchell Pearce has played some of his best footy and would have won the Dally M by a mile in 2018 had he not been injured and also has Klemmer & Saifiti playing great footy. So what is it? Because everything points to him being very involved in every game and being a serious positive influence on whether the Knights are competitive or not.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
And he gave a puerile response. The guy is paid to be a star, is hyped like a star, and the example of him being star is a single game against a bottom 8 team. Where is the game against the Storm, Roosters or Souths?
mushi
Roar Guru
Okay – yep I think I agree it did work out in the end at 700k but at 700k initially it was overs. But much of it depends on what the other options for the cap space were in that given year. Though he’s reportedly now on 1m for whatever those reports are worth (players seem to have very round numbered contracts in the NRL…) I was more just assuming away the production discussion (given he thinks he’s similar to luke brooks.. who’s on 850k by the same rubbery zero tackle numbers) and trying to focus on why is it the player’s fault for being offered money and not the front office.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Papenhuyzen and Latrell..going forward these 2 with Ponga are furthest away from reaching their optimal, you’d think.
Paul
Roar Guru
totally agree Adam. My point is that it's not because of a lack of talent on Ponga's part but because he doesn't commit as these other guys do. They play top class football just about every week across a full season. Ponga on his best days can easily match them, but he only has his best days occasionally, not every week
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Well, if the ball park figure of $700k/ season is close to reality which even after a handful of games in the top grade at the Cowboys, was clearly a very special playmaker, to the team with consecutive spoons ,making a spine with Brock Lamb and Slade Griffin, team running 11th, but straight into the Qld SOO team…sounds very, very reasonable to me. Compare to the next big thing Suaali, straight out of school to a hot club, $500k ..a center/winger no less. Still a long way from anything. The Knights didn’t come out of it that badly. I’ve got a lot of faith in him for this season.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
The Knights have finished 7th twice and 11th twice in the last 4 seasons. He's easily their best attacking weapon. Individual awards are nice but team success is more significant.
mushi
Roar Guru
Agree it’s irrational tosh and nonsense unfortunately you posted it at 10:59: “The guy is the first choice Maroons fullback which makes him an elite player, along with guys like Tommy T and Tedesco.” Um that would be you equating him to Tedesco and Turbo right there, based entirely on being Qld’s first choice fullback. “It’s not unreasonable at all to expect him to turn up and play top level week in, week in, just as they do.” Then for the avoidance of doubt doubling down and saying the reasonable expectation for whomever is first choice fullback is they that they should perform like Teddy and Turbo.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
What other decent QLD fullbacks are running around at the moment? He's the best in a lean period for them at the moment. Not like he's beaten other quality players to get the job.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
Ponga is a long way from both Teddy and Turbo. They have delivered quality for quite a while. Teddy probably the best fullback in the game with Turbo a close second. It's a decent gap to the rest
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
Hayne was hit and miss I'll stand by my comment. He had a good run for a couple of months and won the Dally M which is a flawed system. Seems I've hit a nerve here daring to criticize Ponga. He has some talent for sure but from what I've seen of him so far he's nothing special. He's been an NRL player for 6 years and I can't remember him dominating a season. Good player for sure but probably lacks consistency to go to the next level.
mushi
Roar Guru
I know what you’re assessing him on, it’s just invalid for assessing him personally as player. The variable you are more concerned with is what he is paid. You’re not actually looking at how well he plays but in what the front office of his club paid for that versus the what other front office’s pay for production. The variable you are assessing is the front office valuation. And then blaming Ponga for it when I’m pretty sure the basic premise of free markets is the seller should aim to maximise value. Some players are on “unders” because they see value elsewhere – again that is front office’s job to create not the player’s. You seem to be arguing that a player can only be good if they are under paid for their production.
Paul
Roar Guru
talk about irrational 1. He makes the team because of his play and because there's no one else better in a team that is struggling. He's touted as being the great hope for Qld and has shown glimpses he can play at this level which is why he's picked. 2 "In your mind the Qld #1 should always be as good as the NSW #1?" What? No idea where you came up with this piece of irrationality from. And you reckon your following my logic? That's funny. 3. and this point is a follow on from the last and that made zero sense and so does this.
Paul
Roar Guru
I'm assessing him on what his production should be, based on what he's paid as well as productivity comparisons to other players on similar money. On that basis, he's underperforming.