In addition to an obsession with rugby league, I’m afflicted with a love of association football.
It’s as if being a St George Illawarra supporter doesn’t give me enough frustration and disappointment.
I was recently prompted to recall a couple of my favourite things about Spanish football and the game’s vivid history by Nico’s informative article about the historical significance of rugby league’s City Cup.
First, there’s the historical classification, a record of every La Liga team’s performance since 1929 collated by Madrid-based tabloid Marca, an up-market version of The Daily Telegraph.
Real Unión, a small club from the northern border town of Irun, haven’t played in La Liga for 90 years, but their record is lovingly maintained, even though the chances of them ever resurfacing from the murky depths of the lower leagues are slim at best.
They’re a club of historical significance – founding members of La Liga and four-time King’s Cup winners – and it’s only right they’re recognised.
Second is the story of Levante who, along with sympathetic local politicians and officials, fought for years to have a cup title won during the Spanish Civil War recognised in the game’s official records.
Levante eventually succeeded and Spanish football’s keen sense of history is showing no signs of waning.
Which got me wondering what would a rugby league historical classification look like and how could some of the game’s lesser known and valued achievements be recognised?
Rugby league’s historical classification includes every regular season and finals game from the New South Wales Rugby League (NSWRL), ARL, Super League and NRL.
Between 1912 and 1925, the NSWRL premiership was generally awarded on a first-past-the-post basis, with the occasional final played as a tiebreaker.
The City Cup acted as a quasi-finals series and the tournament’s popularity eventually saw it expand into a league format of its own.
In the early 1920s, winning the City Cup was arguably a more significant achievement than winning the league.
City Cup results between 1912 and 1925 are included, along with the results of the 1937 edition when the premiership was cut short by the Kangaroo tour.
City Cup titles until 1937 are recognised alongside premierships. Given I’m a football supporter, it won’t surprise you to know I value league position highly. Therefore, minor premierships are also recognised.
I’ve recognised a total of 230 titles across 115 seasons. The four tiebreaker finals of 1916 and 1922-24 are included, with Melbourne having vacated four titles won between 2007 and 2009.
A team’s place in the historical classification is not decided by competition points accrued, or on a points-per-game basis.
The former method would mostly be a measure of longevity, while the latter method is prone to over valuing performance in small samples.
Another method is needed, and it comes in the shape of the weighted historical averages metric, or WHAM.
The WHAM method
WHAM is based on four performance measures. The first two, win percentage and percentage of competition points gained, are self-explanatory and carry the heaviest weightings.
The third measure is title percentage. Easts, for example, have won a title of some sort in just under 30 per cent of their seasons played to date.
The fourth measure is expected win percentage. This is a version of points differential but, unlike the traditional measure, it’s points for and against compared to the historical value of point-scoring.
The aggregate data over 115 seasons tells us that scoring more than 35 points in any given game guarantees victory, assuming no wild fluctuations from the mean. Conceding 17 points per game leaves a team with a 50-50 chance of victory. Expected win percentage is based on these markers.
The rugby league historical classification
Unsurprisingly, after winning two thirds of their games since joining the NRL in 1998, claiming ten titles and almost matching their expected win percentage (which is truly scary in the modern era), Melbourne leads the historical classification.
St George rode their extraordinary peak of 1955 to 1967 into second place, with 22 titles, an 80 per cent win percentage and a positive differential of nearly 3000 points over just 13 seasons.
Souths’ extended period of mediocrity between their last two premierships has seen them slip slightly behind their eternal rivals Easts, who’ve been much better on average for the past 50 years.
Everybody’s favourite reclamation project, North Sydney, lost almost 60 per cent of their games and finished behind every team that’s played at least 20 seasons at the top level. I’ve heard bringing them back is imperative. I’m not sure why.
For the sake of simplicity, I’ve combined win and competition points percentage into a single measure as they carry the same weighting.
Team | Win/points % | Expected win % | Title % | WHAM |
---|---|---|---|---|
Melbourne | 66.90 | 68.61 | 41.67 | 62.03 |
St George | 58.98 | 49.71 | 38.46 | 53.95 |
Brisbane | 59.57 | 63.68 | 29.41 | 53.95 |
Manly | 57.44 | 55.62 | 23.61 | 50.49 |
Easts | 54.49 | 50.58 | 29.82 | 49.17 |
Souths | 53.10 | 49.17 | 34.82 | 49.05 |
Glebe | 55.86 | 37.95 | 9.09 | 44.72 |
Balmain | 52.04 | 43.98 | 17.39 | 44.31 |
Canterbury | 51.36 | 48.61 | 17.24 | 44.26 |
Canberra | 51.36 | 61.34 | 10.00 | 44.09 |
St George Illawarra | 49.83 | 59.50 | 13.04 | 43.44 |
Cronulla | 48.86 | 51.76 | 5.45 | 40.47 |
Newcastle Knights | 47.55 | 57.07 | 5.88 | 40.17 |
Parramatta | 46.72 | 49.23 | 12.00 | 40.03 |
Penrith | 45.15 | 52.25 | 10.91 | 39.01 |
Newtown | 45.64 | 40.58 | 13.16 | 38.64 |
New Zealand | 45.34 | 58.35 | 3.70 | 38.32 |
Wests | 44.10 | 41.88 | 13.04 | 37.67 |
Wests Tigers | 42.97 | 58.15 | 4.55 | 36.80 |
Newcastle Rebels | 45.00 | 41.64 | 0.00 | 35.66 |
North Queensland | 41.49 | 57.01 | 3.70 | 35.49 |
Norths | 41.89 | 42.50 | 5.43 | 34.66 |
Northern Eagles | 39.80 | 58.77 | 0.00 | 33.74 |
Gold Coast Titans | 40.40 | 53.70 | 0.00 | 33.65 |
Hunter | 38.89 | 54.90 | 0.00 | 32.71 |
Western Reds | 39.75 | 46.05 | 0.00 | 32.43 |
Illawarra | 39.46 | 47.15 | 0.00 | 32.34 |
Adelaide | 31.55 | 46.79 | 0.00 | 26.76 |
Gold Coast-Tweed | 22.46 | 37.70 | 0.00 | 19.49 |
South Queensland | 20.38 | 36.66 | 0.00 | 17.94 |
University | 21.29 | 28.29 | 0.00 | 17.73 |
Annandale | 16.87 | 19.36 | 0.00 | 13.75 |
Cumberland | 12.50 | 13.41 | 0.00 | 10.09 |
WHAM in the NRL era
Here are the WHAM ratings for all current NRL clubs from 1998 to 2021.
It’s based on the same method as the historical classification, but the markers underpinning expected winning percentage have been adjusted to reflect the value of points in the modern era. Forty-three points should guarantee victory. Twenty-one points conceded is the tipping point in terms of win probability.
The numbers from the NRL era indicate brief booms and extended busts for most clubs. It’s hard to get to the top and it’s almost impossible to stay there for long.
Team | Win/points % | Expected win % | Title % | WHAM |
---|---|---|---|---|
Melbourne | 66.90 | 56.52 | 41.67 | 60.82 |
Easts | 57.78 | 53.97 | 37.50 | 53.35 |
Brisbane | 55.69 | 51.86 | 20.83 | 48.34 |
Manly | 52.92 | 52.10 | 9.52 | 44.16 |
Penrith | 50.75 | 50.93 | 16.67 | 43.95 |
Canterbury | 51.76 | 48.85 | 8.33 | 42.79 |
St George Illawarra | 49.83 | 49.01 | 13.04 | 42.39 |
Parramatta | 50.50 | 48.37 | 8.33 | 41.85 |
Cronulla | 49.04 | 47.54 | 8.33 | 40.75 |
Canberra | 48.25 | 51.22 | 0.00 | 38.89 |
Newcastle | 46.77 | 49.64 | 4.17 | 38.54 |
Souths | 45.60 | 48.73 | 4.55 | 37.71 |
New Zealand | 44.95 | 47.96 | 4.17 | 37.09 |
North Queensland | 43.45 | 48.30 | 4.17 | 36.08 |
Wests Tigers | 42.97 | 47.90 | 4.55 | 35.78 |
Gold Coast | 40.40 | 44.24 | 0.00 | 32.70 |
JennyforPenny
Guest
Exactly why I said what I said.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Ranking of all-time title winners for anybody interested: Souths 39 Easts 34 St George 30 Manly 17 Balmain 16 Canterbury 15 Wests 12 Melbourne 10 Brisbane 10 Newtown 10 Parramatta 9 Penrith 6 Norths 5 Canberra 4 St George-Illawarra 3 Cronulla 3 Glebe 2 Newcastle Knights 2 New Zealand 1 Wests Tigers 1 North Queensland 1
JennyfromPenny
Guest
Wasn’t a Freudian slip. I think life is more often about sharing differing views than it is about holding hands & making daisy chains skipping through the meadow in agreeance with everyone and everything.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Good idea - that would favour the older clubs, but I guess the newer clubs have plenty of time to catch-up.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Thanks Nico.
The Magic Man
Roar Rookie
Fantastic concept AMD. Understand it completely. Actually I think another measure of Club greatness would be how many Hall of Fame type players the club has created or developed. I understand many players played for multiple clubs, however I think the number of legends or international type players that a club develops through its ranks could be recognized within your system.
Randy
Roar Rookie
*early 2010s
Nico
Roar Rookie
Another top article AMD and thanks for the shout out, sterling effort with the wham system, we really don't give enough recognition to minor premiership winners and I think this offers a much more accurate gauge of league success. I can also attest to balancing any sense of inflated expectations that come with following the Broncos from their nineties heyday with also following association football. Actually got a rude shock in seeing Brisbane's title% in relation to win/points as low as it is, although the Raiders take some beating there. Would be interesting to see how BRL sides line up historically against their Sydney comp counterparts
Redcap
Roar Guru
I'm both jealous and feeling slightly woozy, Tim. I don't deal well with heights.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
I was hanging onto the side railing of the Brewongle stand during that game. It was a fair drop to the bitumen.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
1. Yes it was a conspiracy but it made sense. Nobody wanted to see the no hopers {Canterbury, Easts, Newtown, Norths, Parramatta & Souths} play each other. 2. The 2nd Division competition was created to provide the two new teams. Penrith won in 1966 and Wentworthville, who had won the first two years, came second. At the meeting to decide the two teams to be promoted Penrith and Wentworthville were selected based on final position. Parramatta objected arguing they would lose juniors so Cronulla-Caringbah, who came third, were given the twelfth spot.
Redcap
Roar Guru
They sure did – Gary Leo and John Spencer, future premiership players, played for Balmain seconds in ’65. . Dennis Tutty, the litigious international was in the team that day as well, along with Geoff Connell and Norm Henderson. . Warren Ryan played for St George.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
My reply has been delayed.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
1. You made some good points and I was adding their early history in support as it didn't fit into WHAM. 2. The Sutherland Shire was sparsely populated in 1956 but their juniors were graded by St.George. It helped explain why St.George won all three grades in 1963 and two out of three many other times. They won most 3rd grade premierships as well as being club champions. They would've won all three grades in 1965 except Balmain stacked their 2nd grade team.
KenW
Roar Rookie
Not sure what came over me.
Redcap
Roar Guru
I'm glad you came around Ken - I was getting worried when you were defending the Sharkies. :happy:
Redcap
Roar Guru
Hi Tim, Yes, that's right the existence of Cronulla is a conspiracy against the Dragons. :happy: I gave the Sharkies their minor premierships from '88 and '99 - a total of three titles to date. St.George and St. George-Illawarra now have a combined 33 titles.
Redcap
Roar Guru
No, that's right - it's the historical standings. It may well be nonsense, but the methodology is as follows. All 'titles' won since 1908 - premierships, minor premierships and City Cups are included. Win% (35% weighting), points% (35%), title% (20%) and expected win% (10%) make up the final rating (WHAM). Consider Penrith's win% and expected win% since 1967 in the final rating.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Well, those are words - just organised in a way I haven't seen before.
Tony
Roar Guru
Spice is the variety of life. What??