Nerd’s Eye View: History weighing against Titans’ inexperienced spine

If you want to be genuine title contenders in the NRL, you need experience in your key positions.

After returning to the finals last year for the first time since 2016, Gold Coast are hoping to take the next step to challenge the big boys like premiers Penrith, Melbourne, Souths and the Roosters.

But they are gambling on youth in their spine with all four of their likely starters having an average age of 22.25 and a paltry 26 games of NRL experience.

Two of these players – 20-year-old halfback Toby Sexton and fullback Jayden Campbell, 22, – are in the second years of their NRL career with four and seven games respectively on their entry-level resumes.

Five-eighth AJ Brimson, 23 with 63 games under his belt primarily at fullback, and hooker Erin Clark, 24 with 30 matches, round out the talented foursome.

Titans coach Justin Holbrook allowed co-captain Jamal Fogarty to take up a lucrative deal with Canberra in the off-season after being impressed with Fogarty’s assuredness at halfback when he filled in late last season.

Tanah Boyd, ex-Eels veteran Will Smith and Warriors recruit Paul Turner are other options in the mix for the spine spots but they are likely to be fighting it out to be the bench utility for round one against Parramatta on March 13.

The Titans kick off their pre-season with a trial against Brisbane at Cbus Super Stadium on Saturday night.

They got a boost on Monday with Indigenous forward David Fifita cleared of serious injury after he was on the receiving end of a Jordan Rapana shoulder charge and ruled available for selection in the trials. Will Smith’s concussion in the All Stars game will be monitored but he is not likely to be sidelined long.

Pretty much every successful team in NRL history has had experience galore in its spine with the exceptions to the rule the Wests Tigers of 2005, who entered the season with two players – Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall – with a combined 18 games but they were guided by an experienced duo in fullback Brett Hodgson and halfback Scott Prince.

Manly’s 2011 premiership-winning outfit also bucked the trend with rookie halfback Daly Cherry-Evans and five-eighth Kieran Foran, who entered that season after 32 appearances for the Sea Eagles. Again, they had seasoned campaigners to link with either side in the form of fullback Brett Stewart and hooker Matt Ballin.

The only other team in the NRL era which had a relatively inexperienced spine was the Storm side of 1999 which upset St George Illawarra but even then, Robbie Ross was in his sixth season, Brett Kimmorley his fifth, Richard Swain his third and makeshift five-eighth Matt Geyer his second.

Last season, the Titans performed above their eighth-placed finish in attack, sixth-best overall on average for points at 24.2, running metres (fourth at 1509m per game), line breaks (equal fourth at 6.2), tackle breaks (second at 35) and

Their kicking game covered both ends of the spectrum – they were last in the league for metres gained off the boot at an average of 477 but first for attacking kicks (10.8) and third for forced drop-outs (2) per game.

Gold Coast’s defence was seen as a weak point but it wasn’t that bad – they were 10th for average points conceded (24.3) and sixth for running metres allowed (1408) behind only the five top teams on the ladder.

The change to the six-again rule this season, in which infringements in the 40-metre zone for a team coming off its own goal line will result in penalties, should suit the Titans.

They were 14th in tries scored from six-agains last year and the same rank for conceding four-pointers from a set restart.

The building blocks are there for Holbrook to get the Titans close to a long-awaited title but 2022 appears to be a season or two premature for a squad with such inexperienced players in key positions.