AFL 2022 Radar: Will we get another first time flag winner, or are Melbourne too good to fail?

There’s nothing quite like the start of the footy season.

Summer is behind us and the days start cooling down, punctuated by the occasional run of heat. Whether it’s the MCG, SCG, Gabba, Adelaide Oval or Perth Stadium, there’s no place like home.

Sitting on the couch, driving around or working in the garden, the familiar faces and voices that bring us the action are welcomed back.

So, what does season 2022 have in store for us?

We’re in the era of the premiership drought being broken, given it’s happened three times in the last six years.

Who can join the Western Bulldogs, Richmond or Melbourne and bring home a storied yet unexpected flag? Hello, St Kilda.

Jack Higgins (Photo by Cameron Spencer/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Can Fremantle or Greater Western Sydney or Gold Coast win their first? Could Carlton come from nowhere? Is it Essendon’s time? Hope springs eternal.

And what about those that have been knocking on the door? Port and Brisbane have been jostling for position but been unable to get it done. And don’t forget the perennials – Geelong, ever there; Richmond, a popular pick to bounce back; West Coast with their backs to the wall.

Hawthorn and Collingwood have new coaches to try and usher in a new era. North Melbourne and Adelaide are in their second and third year, respectively, of a rebuild. Why can’t they surprise the knockers and play finals football?

Melbourne is the starting point for the new season, as the reigning premier almost always is. What a powerful finals series they produced, playing with a ferocity and intensity of scoring their September opponents simply couldn’t match.

If you were picking a centre-square triumvirate from all the players in the league, Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver would be right in the frame, yet one club has them all. Add in Steven May and Jake Lever down back, plus Ben Brown and Bayley Fritsch up forward, let alone a host of quality among the supporting cast.

They’ll be there on preliminary final weekend, and the only question is whether they’ll do a Richmond in 2018 or not.

And what of the Tigers? Three premierships in the last five seasons means they are always in the conversation somewhere, whether that is predicting one last run at it or a slide down a slippery slope. Hawthorn of 1991 or even, to a much lesser extent, Geelong of 2011 have been raised. They’ve changed some personnel around, which gives them a fresher look and feel.

It’s hard not to bracket Port and Brisbane together. They keep earning home finals, and they also keep losing them. Home-and-away football and finals football are two different things. Respect is hard won but easily lost, and once again they both have to go through six months of slog just to prove they have what it takes at the sharp end. Don’t be surprised if one or both of them drop away if the mental toll of failure is too much to bear.

The Western Bulldogs will be picked by many to be up there once again, and their midfield says they simply have to be. Plenty of teams have gone the other way after being poleaxed in a grand final though. We trust that the goals will come from somewhere, even with Josh Bruce out for a large part of the season with his ACL.

Geelong keep on keeping on, but history says they simply can’t cut it against the best teams over four weeks of finals. It’s hard to see what might change that. Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield looked old when being run ragged by Petracca and Oliver in that prelim. Symbolism has rarely been more obvious.

Patrick Dangerfield (left) and Joel Selwood of the Cats. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

GWS, Sydney and Essendon all played finals last year, with varying degrees of success.

The Giants can be a tough nut to crack when on their game, but their depth has a question mark over it, and their football can be as uninspiring as any when unable to get things on their terms. They are screaming out for a new coach.

The Swans were the surprise packet of last season with a delightful kicking game that opened up opposition defences. They have a lot of young talent, but progress isn’t always linear, so they may well regress.

The Bombers are building towards something, and will take a lot from the momentum gained in the back half of last season. They could be pressing for a top four position or be on the fringes of the eight again.

St Kilda, Fremantle and Carlton are in the band of teams that need to establish some credibility. They all have plenty of people that think they can and should be playing finals this year, but is there going to be room for all of them?

The Dockers hoodwinked a few into thinking they might play finals last season, but it was never going to happen. They’ve got a host of players that love getting injured, so it does mean they are somewhat untapped, but also that they don’t gain much continuity as a team. One more year of waiting for them.

The Saints played finals in 2020, and looked good doing it. Richmond and Melbourne won their 2017 and 2021 flags after playing finals, missing, then jumping right up onto the premiership dais. Why not them? Their midfield is deep enough, their forward-line can be dangerous and their backline solid. They’ll want luck with injuries though.

Carlton looked best placed to achieve the new coach spike, of the three clubs that have a new man at the helm. Michael Voss will demand some defensive steel across the entire ground, and trust they’ve got enough quality through the middle and forward of the ball to kicking winning scores.

Craig McRae couldn’t have developed a better reputation in his various coaching roles over the years, be it in development, line assistant or in charge of a VFL team. His Collingwood might surprise a few.

Sam Mitchell is taking over from a legend at Hawthorn, which can often be a poisoned chalice. It probably helps that he was part of creating history at the Hawks with Alastair Clarkson, and there isn’t a person in the AFL industry with more self-belief, but things will get ugly on-field at times.

Sam Mitchell (Photo by Cameron Grimes/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Adelaide and North are into their rebuilds, so their progress will be measured differently to others. We expect to see progress, and that the nucleus of a contender is being developed. Both clubs will give new talent a chance to shine, which is always exciting.

Stewie Dew at Gold Coast is under the most heat of all coaches, with his cause not helped by star forward Ben King going down with an ACL in the pre-season. He always has the Suns playing well early in the year though, and they can prove a handful.

West Coast has been the horror story of the pre-season. Their list was looking banged up last year, and that’s been reinforced by those same players having an interrupted preparation. Add in Perth going through their COVID spike and it’s hard to forecast anything but doom. Historically, when the Eagles bottom out, they do it quickly, and hard.

Thanks to everyone who has read and commented on the AFL preview series over the last couple of months. As always, we love a roaring good debate. Put your predicted ladders in the comments below, and we’ll come back and compare notes in six months!

Cameron Rose ladder prediction
1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Port Adelaide
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Richmond
6. St Kilda
7. Carlton
8. Geelong
9. GWS
10. Sydney
11. Essendon
12. Fremantle
13. Adelaide
14. Gold Coast
15. Collingwood
16. West Coast
17. North Melbourne
18. Hawthorn