If you’ve paid even the slightest bit of attention to a coach speaking in the last month or so, you’ll be aware that they’re very interested in performances at this time of year.
You’ll have heard variations on “it’s too early to tell” if they’re any good, “we’re still building combinations” if their team has lost and “there’s a long way yet to go” if they won.
While coaches often deal in platitudes, in this case, what they are saying is largely true. Rugby league is fundamentally a game of systems and systems take time to build, and at this stage, performances are arguably more important than points in terms of determining success in the long term.
That said, competition points are worth the same whether they come in Round 1 or Round 15. In fact, winning now, when nobody is at their best, might be worth more because the performance levels required to win in Round 15 might be higher than they are in Round 1.
Think about it like this: if you are a 6/10 now, but your opponent is 5/10, you might win, but the chances of a subpar performance being good enough for two points when everyone is in a groove are lower.
A team can grab points in the early rounds without requiring yourself to play as well, because your opponent can also be assumed to be playing badly, or at least sub-optimally.
This season has seen plenty of low scoring games, especially compared to last season, which you might put down to fewer teams having their attacking combinations sorted – not to mention a change in rule interpretations – that might not exist in 10 rounds’ time as cohesion improves and teams settle into the rules are they exist on the field.
In lower scoring games, there is a much higher potential for result variance because one moment, whether intentional brilliance, opportunism or pure luck, can make all the difference.
This brings us nicely on to Brisbane. Of course, as any fule kno, it’s better to be lucky than good – but is that what we are seeing with the Broncos?
Let’s count the facts. Kevin Walters’ men are 2-0, with victories at home to South Sydney and away to Canterbury Bulldogs. They’ve conceded just three tries.
The defence looks markedly improved on last year, as does the kicking and general level of organisation that comes from having Adam Reynolds in the team.
It’s not a stretch to say that they have improved on 2020 and 2021, though as they finished in last and third last respectively, you might suggest that almost anything would have been an improvement.
To be two wins from two is a good start on face value, and the counterargument requires a bit more delving.
Souths and the Bulldogs sit bottom of the tryscoring charts, suggesting that their attack might have been the issue more than the Broncos newly-improved defence. Is this because the Broncos made their attack look bad, or because their attack is just bad?
Given that Souths were onto their third choice fullback and had a halfback playing his second game of NRL, you could certainly see a world where for that specific game, their attack was simply bad, while I’ve made my thoughts on the poor standard of the Bulldogs attack abundantly clear.
Brisbane has made the most tackles in the comp so far, which also leads towards the idea of having faced opponents that had superiority that they failed to capitalise upon.
On the other side of the ball, the Broncos are way down the list on possession, line breaks, line engagements and total metres made, suggesting that their attack is not yet quite where it could be.
Of their five tries, you might say that three have been ‘constructed’ through good attack – and that’s including the one that Jayden Okunbor entirely missed – and two the result of more fortunate incidents that fell in their favour.
Match situation is also crucial. Both weeks, the Broncos have found themselves in a position where, with the game on the line, they have had something to defend. Were they forced to attack, given the underlying statistics, things might have gone differently.
If you were building a sustainable model of how to win rugby league games, relying on individual brilliance and tackling for your life is not how you would do it. It’s how you might plan an upset victory, but by definition upset victories happen infrequently.
It’s not to say that the Broncos have fluked their way to two wins. They’ve stayed in the game, did the basics right and, in essence, allowed their opponents to beat themselves. Previous Broncos teams of recent memory would not have done that.
But it is worth considering that in the battle of performance, one could easily say that Brisbane has lost the decision two weeks out of two.
Regression is a cold, heartless monster and logic would dictate that two lucky close wins now will be paid back by unlucky defeats later on.
Fortunately for Kevin Walters, this week they run into North Queensland, who showed ample ability to defeat themselves in Round 1 against the Dogs, and then play the Warriors next week, who look like one of the worst teams in the comp this year.
The hope for Walters has to be that his team become good before their luck runs out.
Tony
Roar Guru
Just pos them anywhere GB
PlaymakerProp
Roar Rookie
A
PlaymakerProp
Roar Rookie
Isn't this the exact reason why you don't look to far into these early games? You make that point but then go one to elaborate on the best and worst attacking teams based off 2 rounds and give souths (the runners up last year) against the 2nd from the spoon team the justification that latrell was missing and their 1st choice halfback not having a lot of experience was the difference.. but Brisbane didn't have Reynolds either nor their 1st pick for fullback. And you had players like Carrigan Hass Staggs playing their first games of footy after long stints of injuries etc. Another reason why it's not worth looking deep into things in the early rounds. Souths 14 days later workover the roosters so the 'worst attack in the competition' tag didn't last long. Also it's not always that once the first 6 rounds or so are out of the way the standard is always lifted for every side significantly, maybe with the match fitness side of things but with injuries suspensions origin to contend with then the run into the finals after its pretty hard to say how many significant players are possibly missing in them periods, ususally a handful of sides make it through with momentum but so are some sides depleted and carrying injuries, accepting that the 8 isn't I'm their reach anymore and giving a little less... All that considered, that's why the best insight early is just the general attitude of the team, the effort and defence. I think Brisbane undoubtedly have some quality players and now you add in a champion halfback, a player like Capewell If players like Hass Staggs Cobbo Carrigan Riki stay fit and the squads culture improves I think that can beat a lot of sides and be pressing for top 6 type of finish, I don't think they can threaten to win the comp or hang with the best sides but I think the right players were moved out and brought in, new stability for Kevin and the team, a New Captain who has earnt his stripes over his career and has one of the best kicking games in the comp. Let's see
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
There is only one Pennies player missing .......... apart from all the others.
Max power
Guest
The sharks half is excellent and the Penrith team is well established with only 1 player missing
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
[Wrong thread]
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Exactly GB. Same for ‘guessing’ really 99% of the teams, you can hope you see improvements, conservative weeks of skill. I’d be ‘guessing’ they out off the spoon battle now.
Nat
Roar Guru
Pay it no mind TA, especially from the south of the border crew. NQ will change the narrative with a few wins and most are not paying attention to what is building there. I reckon by 2025, NQ will have 4-5 origin reps.
Nat
Roar Guru
I reckon the last few years have tempered that expectation somewhat BD. They are due some luck and if that's just keeping all the players on the park they will rattle the cages of a few teams this season. No one is saying they are contenders but hopefully above the average, in every sense of the word, teams in the middle.
Danno
Roar Rookie
Too true , it’s called selective refereeing, eels v Penrith in the finals last year eels got duded hard , I remember going back a few years now when cowboys got duded 3 years in a row in finals games by big headed refs
Big Daddy
Roar Rookie
Nat, I think they are good particularly now Reynolds is there and they do need some luck as all teams do but they're going in the right direction . The one burden they have is they are the face of rugby league in Brisbane/Qld and are expected to perform accordingly .
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
Are the Brisbane Broncos good or are they lucky? It's too early to tell after only 2 games. I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the middle in regard to how good they are. They are not as good with Adam Reynolds as Broncos fans had hoped, but they aren't contenders for the wooden spoon either. I certainly can't see them making the top 8 this year.
steveng
Roar Rookie
Teams performances from R1 to R5 is all about fitness, preparedness to have a go at all costs (not just say, oh well get hem next round) and the mongrel and determination that each side has and is instilled into them by the coach and club. It has nothing to do with combinations as these guys have had the preseason and have played RL before. A perfect example of this is last nights game with the Bunnies v Roosters when Joey asked Liam Knight post game, if he was playing for an obstruction penalty when Manu scored after 30sec in the 2nd half, and Liam said and laughed, ohhh ohhh laughing, well I was just too lazy to make that tackle, which is what happens with a team that has players that are not prepared to have a go for 80min and doesn’t consider every point as valuable at this time of the season. That has been one of the Bunnies Achilles' heel for years and also that is why the Bunnies have lost to the Broncs in R1 and lost the first 140min of season 2022. Last weeks loss by 1 point was only because, they had a go for the last 20min only, othrwise they would have lost by 20+++. The bottom line here is that, all fans want is for their teams to have a go for 80min, as that is what the Broncs are doing so far, don’t know how long it will last? But they are having a go, which they didn’t do last year and the year before, where really in 2020 the Broncs won their first two and beat the Cows and the Bunnies until that 2 months Covid break that stopped the season and then they collapsed, will that happen and/or be the same this year?
Dumbo
Roar Rookie
Trev, the article is titled "Are the Brisbane Broncos good or are they lucky?". I would suggest that it is ABOUT the Broncos (not the competition as a whole), and it is an analysis of the first team's performance; not an attack on individual players, the coaching staff, or the front office.
TA
Guest
I`m still amazed at how observers write the Cowboys off with little thought and inaccuracies (it was the Raiders btw) What Justin Holbrook was saying about 50/50 calls is true and always has been, and true of this article. Clubs like the Cowboys will always be reported as an after thought, the disrespect at the end of this article demonstrates that. Instead why not something like `they play NQ this week who played well to defeat the Raiders` Can you imagine a world where Leilua was a Rooster and his try effort was not checked, no you can`t because it would never happen. The `rub of the green` is all the lesser mortals ask but, they will win on Sunday without it.
Trevor.heiniger
Guest
This post is not about the competition but obviously an attack on the Broncos.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The idea that it takes time for combinations to click into gear is a bit of a myth. The Sharks and Panthers looked just fine with a new halfback in the early rounds. Manly has the most settled roster and we looked very average. New combinations are way down the list as to how well teams play in the early rounds.
Nat
Roar Guru
"it’s better to be lucky than good". is the saying from the other side. The winners generally say "the harder you work the luckier you get". Latrell was a big out in round 1, who else were they missing? Brisbane were without their FB, halfback, (essentially) rookie 5/8 and starting prop. Plus they had Tyrone Roberts coming off the bench. He wouldn't get a start in any other club. Then Brisbane leave more tries out there than Souths looked like scoring. Lucky? The Dogs put in a much tougher showing. Check out the stats, they dominated every area of the game. You read those stats without seeing the score and you would expect 20+ victory. They threw more at Brisbane than they've shown in years yet the only time they crossed the line in the last 70mins was a dummy half barge over. In both of those games the best thing you can acknowledge about Brisbane is their defence. Like a lot of other clubs their attack hasn't clicked yet but if they continue to work hard in defence they will keep making the other team look unlucky.