Will a challenger to the might of Melbourne please stand up?
In a not unexpected development, the Demons are the last team standing, the only club left undefeated after four rounds, and with a healthy percentage of 140 to go with it.
They are yet to put in a four quarter performance, have been solid yet not spectacular, their best players have played in fits and starts, and even while coasting are giving every impression that they are miles ahead of the competition.
Three teams, ostensibly the most likely coming into 2022, were embarrassed on the field in the last two weeks of last season.
Port put in the ugliest performance of those three clubs, and they still haven’t recovered. They’re 0-4, forlorn and lost, soon to be forgotten as a finals contender, if they’re not already. Psychological scars often linger after a finals belting, and there is no better example than what the Power are going through right now.
Geelong are Geelong. They’ll look good at times. They’ll look old and slow at times. And they’ll ultimately be found out in finals as they are every year.
Last year’s beaten grand finalist, the Western Bulldogs, are sitting 1-3 and at no stage have looked like having the sort of groove that took them to 9-1 last season, and eventuated in becoming runners-up. They couldn’t hit water from a boat when it comes to their goalkicking. Only time will tell if they can rise again.
None of the three teams above are going to stop Melbourne from winning the premiership.
Brisbane are clearly the team most likely. They’ve finished top four on the ladder three years in a row, they’re second right now and playing well.
The Lions celebrate a goal (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The Lions have the requisite finals experience, defend strongly and attack with purpose, and importantly have guns on every line. The only question left, which must be answered with finals wins, is their ability to be clutch when their season is on the line. They have to win finals. They just have to.
You’ve got to cast the net pretty wide to find another team capable of taking it up to the Dees.
Fremantle are about as ordinary a 3-1 side as we’ve seen, having beaten nothing of consequence in their victories, and losing to the only half-decent opposition they’ve played.
St Kilda were that half-decent opposition, and certainly fit the profile of fairytale teams like Richmond and Melbourne, given they played finals, then missed, and are perhaps ready to contend now. They just look a bit too vanilla across the ground – Max King might be the one that can defy this.
Carlton’s bubble burst against Gold Coast on Sunday night, but they looked electric in the first two rounds. It’s too tough an ask to play at that level for an entire season, including finals, when they have no history of doing it before. They’ll take steps forward this year, but can’t stop the Demons.
Sydney are the maybe. They won the same amount of home and away matches as Brisbane and the Dogs last year, and only two fewer than Melbourne. They’ve got a good blend of experience and youth, but perhaps not enough star power.
It’s not going to happen for this iteration of Greater Western Sydney, even when Toby Greene comes back. West Coast have been torpedoed before leaving the gates. Essendon are a long way off it, and it’s way too early for Collingwood.
That leaves us with Richmond. What to make of the Tiges?
Jack Riewoldt celebrates a goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
They’re middle-of-the-road at 2-2, having beaten two of last year’s finalists in the Bulldogs and GWS, while losing to in-form Carlton and St Kilda. But they’ve been in front at three-quarter time of all four matches.
Richmond’s pressure and ball movement in winning games against the Giants and Dogs looked very much like the ‘Tigers of old’ that delivered three storied premierships. They’re sitting in the top four for points scored, so attack isn’t the issue.
The problem Damien Hardwick must address is the defence, which has conceded large runs of goals. Resilience in the midfield and backline has gone missing too quickly. The Tigers do have new faces like Robbie Tarrant, Josh Gibcus, Daniel Rioli and Hugo Ralphsmith playing down back this season, but will welcome back Nick Vlastuin in the near future.
If this team-within-a-team can gel in quick time, and keep opposition to manageable scores, it might just be that Richmond can rise again. The dynasty might have one more chapter, and if not, perhaps they can at least be more than a speed bump for Melbourne to get over on their way to consecutive flags.
Oh, and they could do with a certain triple Norm Smith medallist in their side as well.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
They have drafted well since 2018 Butters, Duursma, Rozee, Bergmann,Georgiades ,Lachie Jones all first round draft picks,they have talent.Big Sam Hayes just debut,dylan williams pick 23 josh sinn 1st round pick last year,meade pick 25 only played a couple of games between them.Have Ollie Lord as a 198cm forward doing good things in the SANFL he may debut later this year.Dante Visentine is 203cm forward/ruck shows promise.Players like Jase Burgoyne Hugh Jackson playing well in the SANFL the nucleus of a good side is there with Wines Aliir Fantasia Amon Burton etc all got plenty of footy left in them.Think a new coach and some smart free agancy moves will have us back reasonably quickly
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
Essendon in 99, although they hadn't won one then. North in 98. Melbourne in 58; we'll definitely learn from that! :silly:
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
A lot gets made of teams being belted in a final losing confidence the next year, but I think it’s moreso getting beaten that comprehensively on a big stage shows everyone your weaknesses and how to exploit them. I think that is what has happened to the Dogs so far this year; however, in Port’s case, I can’t help but think that there was some confidence lost and I think it’s because of the way they showed up to that preliminary final, they really didn’t give themselves a chance. Why that is, I don’t know. I think the focus from here on in should be how they get something positive out of this season, even if that isn’t making finals, but if they don’t, they might be in wilderness for a while like their hometown rivals have been.
ScottD
Roar Guru
They have explained it well but to be an obvious challenger you need to be consistent, Don. Until Freo consistently kick more goals than points (and by that I mean every match) then I'm not a believer that they are the obvious challenger right now. Having said that I am still a faithful member and believer in Freo. I like where they are going and note they have 18 more games this year to find that consistency.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Think Marshall has been heavily critiqued [from the outside]because we where trying to win a flag the last couple of years,big Charlie needed help.Might subside now that we have dropped out of contention.The list build has been built around Ollie Wines since 2018 Hence drafting and recruits like Aliir and Fantasia both 26,Ollie just turned 27,think we can have another crack in about 2 years with some smart free agency moves and more games into players
BillyW
Roar Rookie
haha...A new coach might get hard on him and bring out his best!...He is so creative I like him in there, I just yearn for 6-8 marks a game 2-3 contested and once every now and then a really hard, high leaping contested ripper! Having said that he times leads well but if we ignore the first he seems lost and ambles around with his hand in the air......Ken needs to go back to being a coach not a father figure......how the rest of the year pans out could well determine his opportunities once he moves on from Port at the end of the year also... I put him in the Dan Mcstay bracket as opposed to the Tall forwards I mentioned above and Dan came out the other week and suggested he only now (26, 144 games) feels like he belongs....and there's talk about his value on the free agency market (although I think a lot of that is over inflated) ....a new coach will definitely work with him until his contract runs out.....
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Yeah,need another tall back for sure.On Marshall,I hear he is dating Hinkley's daughter,this come's from reading something on a port facebook site.As you said Marshall lost both his parents and I believe Hinkley has become a father figure in his life.If Hinkley does leave and coach elsewhere that could be interesting. I agree,get games into players and set our sights for next year.
Boo
Guest
Dalhause hasn't been much good but her your scraping the bottom of the barrel if he's your ammunition . More pressure on dogs than just about any other team 2016 good as it was may be a flash in the pan last year's fold in the gf worst I have seen .
Valentino
Roar Rookie
Is a 34 round H&A series gonna work? Why not give it a go? Because that one day in September is about the suspense of a two-horse race. Who’d have backed the tortoise to beat the hare ??
Valentino
Roar Rookie
Agreed: head to head - one game - best team on the day wins. Carnage otherwise. BTW stand the mark on the mark - if it ain't broke...
BillyW
Roar Rookie
It was definitely a hard game to cop, the attitude smacked of complacency and that was the most disappointing thing for me from a group that had yet to achieve anything. We were also bullied by their deep pool of more experience mids.......and then we rocked up this year with coaches telling us we're going to expand our mids but they kept dropping the names of and putting that pressure on our promising kids We have struggled up forward not just due to the omissions but also the fact we didn't change how we moved it forward to suit the players there.....in the end we stopped moving it forward at all! I'm sure Dixon would appreciate we implemented an offensive game plan that moved the footy quickly, recognised, used and encouraged taught leading patterns as opposed to banging it on his head and hoping he marks it or brings it to ground....might prolong his career. Marshall is an interesting case and before I show him some leeway I will mention my patience is also running out! But he is 24 this year, most top 10 KPF break out around year 3 or 4, although he is first round it was late and how much development is missed whilst grieving the loss of parents? Lets say 2 years, he's contracted until the end of 2024 I think he adds value as a 2nd KPF but if he hasn't developed to a point where he can cover as the #1........because at this point Ollie will be ready (hopefully have a few games under the belt....I'm a fan of his) and Dixon will be gone , maybe (I'm not including Finlayson as I think he's a sook and until I see something I like I'll consider him depth, yes even behind Marshall!)....Dante I really like, you are right about the mongrel and 93kegs already suggests he could put on size easier than the other two but I expect he will be around the 2024 mark to hit his straps...that should mean Hayes has had a year or two with Lycett and potentially one as the #1..... Our midfield going forward should be ok for a while even without Boaky....although we have loaded up on flankers that can get clearances, it's an easy area to trade for in the future.... I get nervous looking at our backs, we have been so well served by Jonas and Clurey we drafted Pasini who's under sized and got Skinner who is a better size but injuries have seemed to leave him slow and immobile.....we need to draft someone soon who can stand the Kings, Blakey, L Mcdonald, De Koning(x2), Thrillthorpe and I think Freo got a tall kid with mobility to burn this year....and I'm sure there's more (I think over the least 5 years we have upped the steroids' in milk and produced a glut of 200cm rubber men!) I share your optimism (I'm as bad as Ken when it comes to Marshall and would add him to your mix though!) and possibly we needed a year like this (although it's very early) No finals, long preseason, new coach....and players fired up for 2023.....this year we need to get games into a few second third year kids for a look and their development, and not rush back Dixon, Fantasia etc....let's get them absolutely right....... The future should always look good.....
Maxy
Roar Rookie
I really lost confidence in our group after the preliminary final last year.Then seeing how much we struggled this year up forward without Dixon Gray and Fantasia [always injured] and Marhall and Finlayson [[still hold hope] lack of impact,really had me concerned for the future. Been hearing good things about Ollie Lord,by all reports he had a very good game against Norwood last night,only kicked 1 goal but was crashing packs and taking contested marks.Dante Visentini is 202cm ruck/forward and has mongrel in him,[good starting point]which marshall and Finlayson dont,and Charlie is closer to the end. Can see Lord at full forward at 198cm and going forward I would play 2 rucks Hayes and Visentini starting forward with Georgiades the other tall option.If these 3 talls continue to improve think we just need another high quality midfielder around Ollies age to bounce back quite quickly.Add a new coach and new gameplan the future won't look so bad
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Yeah,unfortunately injuries happen,just part of the game.This will help Sam Hayes,I don't expect him do dominate and he might struggle for a while but he will get plenty of gametime for the rest of the year,play 15 odd games this year put on a few more kilos this year,think he is 205cm 103kg.He should be cherry ripe next year after another preseason
BillyW
Roar Rookie
This is not how I wanted his debut to go (as you know) but I'm sure he'll take it! Any chance of rain (lots of rain) in Melb Sunday arvo?
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Well,there you go,just read Lycett goes in for surgery,out for 3 months.Lets go Sammy Hayes :boxing:
Maxy
Roar Rookie
yeah,I have no idea.Not confident at all.To many things going wrong atm .Next month of footy will tell us a bit I think
BillyW
Roar Rookie
Yeh I think from what I've seen of selection so far he is in, we definitely need another tall down there against the Blues.......personally I would throw Finlayson back as he is more mobile (or at least appears to be), Lycett, if he plays, goes forward (for muscle and to stretch the blues) and Hayes has to come in and ruck (surely....), that leaves Skinner out.... The Blues aren't just tall they are all mobile and ready to go also Hewitt from what I've seen is a ripper.......I just don't see how we win this game, hopefully I'm wrong!
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Do you think Skinner plays v carlton,see he named in the squad,bit of extra height down back perhaps
BillyW
Roar Rookie
So who are we handing the April flag to , Dees or Cams Tigers! haha..... The Dees are out in front at the moment no doubt there, Lions are main challenger at this stage for mine
BillyW
Roar Rookie
So who are we handing the April flag to , Dees or Cams Tigers! haha..... The Dees are out in front at the moment no doubt there, Lions are main challenger at this stage for mine