With a Tasmanian AFL licence a foregone conclusion, the battle for the 20th AFL licence is heating up.
Several areas have been touted for the coveted spot, with former AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou stating, “The most logical places could only be Northern Queensland, somewhere in WA, but most logically in the NT”.
But one city continues to be unfairly ignored – Canberra.
Canberra is the only unrepresented city to consistently host multiple AFL men’s games every year. No other city even comes close to being a logical destination for Team 20.
Andy thinks the NT is the most logical, so let’s explore why Canberra makes more sense.
Demographics
Numbers are boring, but they’re important. Especially when determining what’s logical.
Canberra has double the population of the NT – and triple the population of Darwin.
While the bid is for the whole of the NT, focusing on Darwin is important. The team would be based out of, and play most of their games in, Darwin.
Similar to the Tasmanian bid, an NT team would share several games with the territory’s secondary city, but the two are worlds apart. Launceston (a city several times larger than Alice Springs) is only 200 kilometres from Hobart.
Alice Springs is 1500 kilometres from Darwin. Some fans can easily travel between Launceston and Hobart, but Darwin is well and truly alone.
Canberra-Queanbeyan has triple the population of Darwin – and another half of Darwin within an hour’s drive.
In terms of demographics, Canberra is the most logical option.
AFL fans
I know what you’re going to say next: “But nobody cares about AFL in Canberra.”
Well, let’s be logical and have a look at the numbers.
Numbers from tipping.afl.com.au suggest Canberra may have four times as many AFL fans as Darwin.
No, seriously, hear me out.
Of the 290,310 tipping.afl.com.au participants at the end of Round 5, the ACT had 2.5 times as many tipsters as the NT. If those figures were extrapolated to the cities, Canberra would have slightly more than four times as many registrants as Darwin.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Tipping isn’t an absolute measure, but it’s a large sample size showing how much of a population is interested in a sport enough that they’re willing to devote part of their week to it. Note: the website was unable to provide official numbers, so here’s my working out.
Canberra also rocks up. More people to more games.
Canberra has hosted 54 AFL men’s games to Darwin’s 22. This year, Canberra will host four AFL men’s games for the first time. Since games have started in Canberra, Manuka Oval has hosted multiple games in 18 seasons, and three games 13 of those.
Darwin has only hosted multiple games in five seasons – and never more than two in a season. It will be a big leap to a full-time team.
Canberra’s pre-Covid crowds have been marginally higher than Marrara Oval, by seven per cent. But in years when the cities have hosted multiple games – which Darwin will have to do if hosting a club – Canberra crowds have been 25 per cent larger.
AFL has more support in Canberra than Darwin, and importantly, more room to grow.
Wider catchment
While an NT team has the opportunity to bring more professional footy to Alice Springs, a Canberra team has the opportunity to bring professional footy to the Riverina-Murray – an Aussie rules heartland more populous than the entire Northern Territory.
Canberra has the capacity to host an AFL club by itself, but having a club on the doorstep of the Riverina raises the opportunity to bring more professional footy to Wagga and Albury, and give back to an area that has given so much to the sport.
Southern NSW – including the ACT – had 40 players on AFL lists in 2021. This is compared to the 18 players the NT had on AFL lists in 2018. Both numbers would likely eventually rise with the inclusion of their own team, but the Northern Territory would remain more dependent on interstate talent.
The GWS dilemma
The common argument against a side in the capital is: “But the Giants depend on Canberra.”
That alone is a reason why Canberra makes more sense than Darwin.
Gold Coast has taken on Darwin as a secondary market, but nobody is stressed about the Suns losing Darwin, because compared to Canberra, it’s an insignificant market.
The Giants play three annual AFL men’s games in Canberra. But just as four games a year in Hobart does not make North Melbourne the Tasmanian team, three games at Manuka does not make the Giants the Canberra team.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
This was most evident in 2019. The Giants and the Canberra Raiders – the city’s NRL team – made their respective grand finals one week apart. The city was a mosaic of lime green, abuzz for the Raiders. There was barely a speck of orange was to be seen; the passion for the Giants was not there. Not like it would have been for a Canberra AFL team.
The Canberra-GWS relationship has been a mutually beneficial one, but one that both parties have outgrown. Western Sydney is a huge market and alienating a fanbase by keeping one foot in another market prevents the Giants from becoming the behemoth they promise to be.
The Northern Territory bid has extensive government support, which is the one area it’s currently placed ahead of Canberra. The ACT Government is supportive of AFL, and would likely support a new AFL team, but is hamstrung by the territory’s current relationship with GWS.
The NT bid is popular. But just because they’re the loudest bid, doesn’t mean they’re the best option. Just as Tasmania discovered in 2008, a popular campaign doesn’t matter if the AFL recognises a better option for the league.
A team from the Northern Territory is a feel-good story. But from demographics, proven hosting ability, existing AFL fans, room to grow and player retention, “most logically”, it could only be Canberra.
Republican
Guest
It does indeed.
Republican
Guest
A game or two? Saints preserve, NZ has been touted on and off for decades and seriously, this has been a misplaced and irresponsible exercise of hyperbole on the part of the AFL and its pseudo international messrs. Not withstanding NZ is a sovereign nation, why does our Federation continue to afford them such privilege? They have managed to exploit our misplaced largesse for too long now. Well not with our game and most certainly NOT at the expense of perfectly viable domestic demographics i.e. the ACT, NT, FNQ and Tassie to name a few. NZ have Soccer, League & Basketball domestic licences, possibly more in the offing, yet the nations capital for eg. struggle to attract our own AFL stand alone licence while being directly usurped in our mens Basketball & Soccer domestic brands. It strikes me as farcical that they are not integral to our Federation yet they assume many of its benefits. First and foremost, NZ remain our greatest adversary and sports a metaphor for this and while mutual respect endures, we remain sovereign nations like any other, where our differences are far greater than our similarities.
Republican
Guest
Spot on Rowdy. That should not however excuse their continued expedience and patronising tokenism. The town is ripe fo the picking and is no sleepy backwater these days. A stand alone entity for the Capital is a MUST.
Republican
Guest
Soft. Rubbish. Have you been to NZ? Colder when the wind blows in Hobart & Melbourne.
Republican
Guest
This rhetoric of prejudice re Canberra being 'cold' is an excuse and nothing more. Canberra boasts the second highest daily sunlight hours after Perth annually. Canberra is far hotter than it is cold while unlike Melbourne where days are wetter (so not so firm under foot) and often grey, the nations capital is generally still, crisp and sunny, offering the ideal footy conditions for players and supporters alike. I have lived in Canberra since 1963 and I can attest to the changing climate that has shrunken our Winters to a fortnight if that. Hobart is windy as is most of Tassie, while it is in a rain shadow and nowhere near as wet as Melbourne, Sydney or Brisbane, so while it is considered colder its climate is drier and probably superior in terms of footy conditions. I'd be more concerned about the heat and precipitation factors in climes i.e. Darwin, Townsville, Brisbane or any where in Qld truth be told. Consider also that the season begins prematurely in Feb and blurs Summer and Winter code demarcations to satisfy the insatiable tele market. Heat is a real concern in my opinion and a turn off to attending live fixtures. In reality, the vast majority of Australians are soft since Winter here is a figment as are the '4 seasons' which are based on the northern hemisphere. Consider also that our domestic comps of League, Union and Soccer are played in NZ, which has a maritime climate akin to England. I don't hear anyone complaining across those codes. No, this is an old anti Canberra chestnut that is tediously trotted out when the Capital is touted in this regard. The 'cold' hyperbole simply needs to be called out as such and put to bed once and for all.
Republican
Guest
Epitomizes the natipnsl stereotyping and disdain for our capital where people exist aspire and struggle akin to any other. Smacks of shock jock myopic mediocrity. This ignorant & disparate Federation devolves further courtesy of your kind.
Republican
Guest
NO, no no ad infinitum. NZ already exploit our domestic leagues in respective codes to their detriment and these aren't even Australian. They have diddly footy credibility or pedigree and at best see our great game as a novelty and at worst hold nothing but contempt for it as they do all things Australian. There are some power brokers of influence in NZ who have long stated that if they were to get behind any NZ concept then all reference to 'Australia' would need to be dropped before considering such a venture and thats just the beginning of their negotiations. True to NZ form, they would seek to appropriate what is a cultural institution. I am vehemently opposed to offering NZ any offering regarding our sacrosanct cultural sporting pie to the detriment of the codes domestic DNA, to be compromised beyond recognition by a nation of philistines.
Republican
Guest
Concur however the AFL are indicative of an ignorant nation, towards its long suffering yet loyal footy community. The AFL will always take the money over any cultural criteria when 'growing' the code, preferring non footy demographics that offer television $'s to further grow their already self serving plutocratic empire. The historic pedigree and heritage of the code here in Canberra is far more significant than either rugby code while many remain oblivious to the fact. Of course Canberra could sustain an AFL stand alone entity as it now edges towards a population of 500k not including the regions while this would if anything, threaten the Rugby codes viability rather than the reverse. A stand alone side would also enhance the codes national status, having the indigenous game firmly entrenched at the highest tier of the game in the capital, a powerful symbology to be sure. Sadly this is unlikely to transpire due in part to our proximity to Sydney, an apathetic public and a local government that struggles to attract the commercial interest required to realise an AFL entity. Add to this a governing body that holds very little respect for Canberra, appeasing us with fly in fly out offerings and predictably expedient of our footy resources to ensure the safety net that benefits their concept brand, GWS. I at least hope Tassie manages to secure a side. This is long overdue, (as it is for Canberra) and will ultimately benefit the code in this country and ensure that the game is rested from extinction in our most southern footy state. I also believe the NT should not be dismissed in this regard, as the state with highest per capita support for our great game and a potential footy grass roots second to none.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Ryan Buckland did a good article on this site a few years ago. The north western region of Perth appears to be the logical area to target, whether that be with an existing club or a new franchise. The WCE have over 100,000 members with a 3+ year waiting list. I'm sure there would be a few fans in this area that would jump at the opportunity to follow another Perth based team, especially if they cannot get a seat. Most importantly, targeting this area shouldn't affect Freo too much. Win win with Tv rights also, which should help subsidise the Tassie entry.
Adam
Roar Guru
I've lived in Canberra and now reside in Tasmania. I'd actually propose that the ACT should be the 19th side. If it weren't for our politicians sabre rattling I think the ACT WOULD be the 19th side with the 20th being some other place. Tasmania has terrible infrastructure, Bellerive Oval is terrible to get to and is a little suburban cricket oval masquerading as a stadium. York Park is good, but no one from the southern half of the state will sit idly by and let the north get the team. I'm from Hobart and I actually think that Launceston would be a better choice, but I digress. Canberra already has the two winter codes, yes, but the city is getting pretty big. And as you say to someone else here the city is getting less transient as the lifestyle has certainly been on the improve over the last 20 years. I genuinely think they'd stand a good chance. The biggest hurdle is will they be Lime Green or the traditional blue, yellow and white?
The shortlist
Guest
1. Canberra 2. Ballarat 3. Sydney metro 4. Newcastle 5. Darwin
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Doc..what would the source of the 3rd Perth team be? I mean Freo was an obvious second side just as Port Adelaide was but what would the third W.A. side be? The Cottesloe White Pointers?
Brandon Patane
Roar Rookie
Manuka would definitely need a bit of work done, assuming it would be the home ground for the team. Very interested to see where the league would choose to go for a 20th team though. Really not sure which option I'd like most as a Victorian with no bias in the situation.
Rich
Guest
Great article. Enjoyed Tom Green belting into Jack Steele in the middle of Manuka Oval last game. Two gun mids, both Canberra boys (Marist and Belconnen) with lots of locals cheering them on. Play nine home games in Canberra and schedule a game in Albury and Wagga. You know it makes sense.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
No that similar. Most know Tasmania is an Australian Football stronghold. Canberra is not as obvious in the psyche of most AF fans.
Canberra Pear
Roar Rookie
A pretty similar situation to Tasmania. The AFL is just lucky Tasmania is so far away from Sydney. The fact that AFL still has so many supporters in Canberra is something the AFL shouldn't take for granted again.
Canberra Pear
Roar Rookie
I'm for an NZ team eventually. I think it needs to be gradual though. I think play a game or two a year and count on the novelty factor, then slowly increase the number of games as the supporters increase too.
Ben
Guest
"The Giants are gradually gaining some traction in the Western suburbs of Sydney." Is this satire? No one wants this Victorian infestation.
Ben
Guest
A soulless unwanted franchise like "GWS" would fit in well in a soulless public servant infested settlement like Canberra.
XI
Roar Guru
I don't think it will happen either. I just said that it would be more likely than a standalone Canberra team