The Roar's AFL Finals Forecast: Week 1 expert tips, premier, Brownlow, biggest September surprise and more

There’s a warmth to the air, a sense of excitement on every pair of lips and the smell of freshly cut grass fills the nostrils… yep, winter is at an end, September has arrived, an the AFL finals are upon us.

To hell with Christmas – this is truly the most wonderful time of the year.

To celebrate, our expert tippers here on The Roar have dusted off the old crystal ball (that we frankly all should have been using through the home-and-away rounds if our tipping results are any guide), gazed into its depths and predicted the next four weeks of footy.

Who claims premiership glory? Who will have the Brownlow Medal draped around their neck? Will Chris Scott get another GIF made of his reaction to an umpiring decision? We’ve all made our calls – now it’s time to sit back and see how many we get right.

With four games this weekend, two of them sudden-death, the finals series is certainly going to start off with a bang, so we’ve also provided our reasons for why each of the four victors will be heading through to the next stage.

There are only nine games to go for season 2022 – but after one of the most remarkable home-and-away seasons ever, there’s sure to be a lifetime’s worth of drama still to come!

Tim Miller

Premier: Melbourne

Runner-up: Geelong

Biggest story: Star player gets concussed in winning prelim, leading to debate over 12-day protocol for the grand final

Gut feeling: Geelong to lose a final

Brownlow Medal: Clayton Oliver

Norm Smith Medal: Jack Viney

Definitely will happen: Collingwood to win exactly one final

Definitely won’t happen: Chris Scott to get through a finals series without a single GIF-able facial expression

Who wins Finals Week 1:

Richmond: The Lions’ list of outs is too long to overcome, especially with Jarryd Lyons added to it. Plus that Dusty bloke seems a handy in at this time of year.

Melbourne: Steven May back will nullify the Swans’ talls that won them the game in Round 12. Finals are usually won by the more proven September side, and that’s definitely the Dees.

Geelong: Collingwood won’t be given the chance to win another close game. Will be closer than many think, but the Cats’ Jeremy Cameron-Tom Hawkins duo just seems too strong for a Magpies defence that’s brilliant offensively but lacks height and strength to stop the real monsters.

Fremantle: Will rip the Bulldogs to shreds on counterattack. A wet day helps the Dogs’ chances, but no Tom Liberatore is a big blow. Just can’t see the underdogs getting it done here.

Melbourne acting captain Jack Viney breaks a tackle against Brisbane. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Dem Panopoulos

Premier: Melbourne

Runner-up: Geelong
Biggest story: Jeremy McGovern spotted in Sydney talking to Swans officials while they prepare for a
big final

Gut feeling: Clayton Oliver will establish himself as the undisputed best player in the competition

Brownlow Medal: Clayton Oliver

Norm Smith Medal: Clayton Oliver

Definitely will happen: Alastair Clarkson grabs the attention of the footballing public, with finals being forgotten about for a day or two

Definitely won’t happen: All fans come together to show respect to the eventual champions

Who wins Finals Week 1:

Richmond: Slightly more confident than nervous; the Tigers have been incredibly consistent for
much of the season and have the wood over the Lions. Famous last words.

Melbourne: They can control the uncontested ball better than they did last time against Sydney and
if successful in doing so, should be able to absorb Sydney’s pressure.

Geelong: Forget their record in qualifying finals, they’re the most well-rounded team this season
and should deprive the Magpies of opportunities to counter-attack.

Fremantle: The Dockers are legit, Tom Liberatore’s absence is a far bigger blow than Nat Fyfe’s too.

Dayne Zorko of the Lions is tackled by Dustin Martin of the Tigers (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Cameron Rose

Premier: Sydney

Runner-up: Geelong

Biggest story: If Richmond can keep winning, it will almost certainly be Dustin Martin

Gut feeling: I’ve just got this nagging feeling that Sydney will keep sneaking under the radar. I just wonder if John Longmire has a present under the Christmas tree that no-one else really knows about, and he can’t wait to open it on September 24

Brownlow Medal: The Brownlow is losing its lustre for me, too many players that lack class are winning it. Sam Walsh is one that would be worthy, but don’t think this is his year

Norm Smith Medal: Callum Mills

Definitely will happen: The umpires or one of the new rules will ruin a close final. Hopefully they swallow the whistle at all costs.

Definitely won’t happen: Collingwood win the flag

Who wins Finals Week 1:

Richmond: There are lots of things in the Tigers’ favour (almost a full squad to pick from, winning form, confidence high, excellent record against Brisbane) and a few things against the Lions (player unavailability, patchy form, poor finals record). Richmond are firm favourites even at the Gabba, but rarely does footy play out that simply, especially in finals. It’s easy to tip the Tigers, but it is folly for anyone to think Brisbane won’t be looking the winner at some stage. 

Sydney: The Swans have a dominant record against Melbourne, even at the MCG. If they can match them at the coalface, they have the weapons and outside skill to move the ball around and through the Demon defence. I’m really warming to them. 

Geelong: The Pies have always tended to match up well against the Cats, but I do see Geelong being too professional and ultimately too good. That said, the Pies are infused with Richmond-esque qualities and coaching staff, a side that has always beaten the Cats in finals over the last few years. They’re in the game.

Western Bulldogs: I haven’t been convinced about Fremantle all year, and the Dogs have been ordinary. Tipping the Dogs here purely due to having faith in Bevo pulling out some sort of genius.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Premier: Sydney

Runner-up: Melbourne 

Biggest story: Collingwood’s mercurial rise leads them to a prelim

Gut feeling: Fremantle to survive a closer than expected elimination final, only to lose a semi final in the last few minutes (yep, that was torturous for me to type) 

Brownlow Medal: Clayton Oliver

Norm Smith Medal: Flip a coin for this one – Callum Mills for the winning team, Christian Petracca a smokey for the Demons

Definitely will happen: Umpiring controversy. Probably in multiple games.

Definitely won’t happen: Geelong in the grand final 

Who wins Finals Week 1:

Brisbane: With their backs absolutely to the wall, they’ll win a close one. Only to pull a quintessential ‘Brissy in finals’ performance the very next week.

Melbourne: In a grand final preview, the Demons will prevail at home and ease through to a prelim, largely off the back of an enormous performance in the middle.

Geelong: They’ve beaten the very best of the Magpies already this year (Round 3), and should do so again.

Fremantle: It’ll be close, but they’ll do it in front of a home crowd.

Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw of the Dockers celebrate. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)