The Thursday Two-up: Time for a rethink?

After a wild weekend of Round 3 matches in The Rugby Championship, I came to a very relieving conclusion on Sunday night before sending the weekly email to the guys.

I’m bloody glad we’re not tipping these games.

We were already talking about this year’s edition being perhaps one of the more open Rugby Championships in recent years, and I can’t imagine the Wallabies and Los Pumas winning last weekend adds much clarity to this point. Quite the opposite, I’d suggest.

Obviously, all our teams still have plenty to work on ahead of the Round 4 games this weekend, and we’ll get onto that. I don’t think any of the four coaches will say they played the perfect game last weekend, though Argentina certainly went closer than the other three.

But who wins it all from here? Is it only more confusing now?

It might be time for a rethink.

Question 1: Last week, you nominated your pick as the tournament favourite after Round 2. Now make the case for why a team you didn’t mention last week might actually be the new favourites after Round 3.

Nobes
The most entertaining and lowest odds happened this past weekend which leads to a new and exciting approach to trying to predict a tournament winner.

To the greater possibilities that were attributed last week, the All Blacks and The Springboks as possible winners, today both the Wallabies and the Pumas have the same chances.

If bonus points could define the champion today, point differentials must be added to them in the face of a possible tie in points between the four or two of the protagonists.

The All Blacks find themselves in turbulent waters that are similar to those the Wallabies faced last week and they knew how to navigate clearly beating none other than the world champions, who are the only team of the four that come of two consecutive losses.

On the opposite side are Los Pumas with two wins in a row, one at home and one as a visitor, no less than on New Zealand soil where they had never been able to lose by less than 15 points.

If the results of next weekend are reversed, we will be facing a final full of unknowns and the four teams having to play the last two dates as locals and visitors and thus eliminating a possible home advantage for some.

On the other hand, if any of the two winners of this last weekend manages to repeat, they will be very close to the title.

Those from South Africa seem to be the ones that are at a disadvantage since they still have two games left away from home, while the two trans-Tasman teams will enjoy that advantage. Likewise, the way the games are presented, that advantage does not seem to be decisive.

As I put it last week, even Los Pumas have a serious chance of taking the title based on what we have seen on the field.

Pumas head coach Michael Cheika. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images

Brett
So, after deciding last week’s question was easier to ask than answer, and then not being able to split South Africa and New Zealand, I’ve made this week’s question even harder again.

And while I was thinking about Argentina when I posed the question, I do think now that their draw might work against them.

As mad as The Rugby Championship has been in 2022, it still feels like two wins are going to be needed from here, and for Los Pumas, that will mean winning two of their remaining games in Hamilton, Buenos Aires, and Durban. That’s not easy.

The Wallabies, on the other hand, still have two games at home, in Sydney and Melbourne. And they’re hard games, no doubt, as is the third game to follow in Auckland, but the fact that they won’t have to travel much is definitely an advantage for Australia. (Yes, I know New Zealand are in that same boat, but the parameters, people.)

Therefore, if they can claim the first ever international victory at the new Sydney Football Stadium this weekend, they’ll be entitled to head to Melbourne with confidence, regardless of what Los Pumas might do to New Zealand in the ‘Tron.

And given the aforementioned madness in this year’s tournament, a win in the first Bledisloe could well be enough.

Digger
They say a week is a long time in sport and indeed life, and certainly this year’s Rugby Championship is proving that very point.

Last week I had the All Blacks as favourites due to what I thought was a favourable draw, but let’s just rip that up and look at the two teams I had third and fourth, the Wallabies and Pumas.

Of the two I would have to favour Argentina as the potential favourite. As inspired as the Wallaby performance was against the Springboks, it comes as no surprise either to see them roll over the top of the Boks at home. It is not like it is not uncommon, and while the Pumas will certainly be full of self-belief, having achieved a first in their history of a win in New Zealand, you cannot ignore the form of their forward pack – especially the loose trio who are just killing it at the moment.

With a ‘who really knows what is going on and will happen’ All Blacks and Springboks to come and tack on, they are the only side thus far to string two good performances in a row in this competition.

It is not all that silly to suggest the Pumas may break their trophy duck in this Rugby Championship. But I have scribbled this all down on recycled paper, just for the inevitable ripping up that is bound to happen next week.

Marika Koroibete of the Wallabies  (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Geoff
Despite falling to Argentina last week, I’m still tipping New Zealand to sneak the title, courtesy of a Pumas hangover, and having a match at Eden Park up their sleeve. That’s all backed up by the bookies.

The reality is however, that any of the four sides can win.

If Australia can tip over the revamped Boks this week in Sydney, then a win in Melbourne might be all they need to be the one.

The rider is that the two late tries to Kwagga Smith cost them a bonus point which, this season, are as hard to find as golden hen’s teeth and Mark Robinson’s friends.

Can Australia deliver? Well, if they beat last week’s Boks side, they can definitely beat this week’s, assuming they don’t get ahead of themselves and keep focus on executing the basics.

And there have been enough wins against the All Blacks in Australia in recent years – against better All Blacks sides than this one – to suggest another win in Melbourne is possible.

Harry
New Zealand is the favourite in every match or tournament they enter except for five times against the Springboks (and they won one).

So, I’ll stick with that reality, but if we have to select an alternate team I will go with the Wallabies, because they are facing a Bok team which has no recognized flyhalf or kicker.

Win in Sydney after the All Blacks do the up in their up-down-up pattern in Hamilton, and suddenly Melbourne looms as an upset opportunity. And at some point, in the merry-go-round of Springbok selections, we will see Evan Roos at no.8, Cheslin Kolbe back, and a win or two over Argentina.

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

So, advantage Wallabies. If. They. Win. In. Sydney.

I’m also saying that because I’m in Australia right now.

(But I still think the All Blacks have this Championship, if they find a way to beat amazing Argentina).

Question 2: What is your team’s biggest challenge for Round 4 this weekend?

Nobes
I have always been encouraged that to beat The All Blacks you must play the perfect game.

After the victory of Los Pumas this last weekend that theory came to nothing, and the new theory is to do some things better than the opposition and put them under pressure.

The Pumas will have to improve the set piece, especially the scrum where they were in serious trouble for most of the game. They should not be fooled and be able to contain the line and maul where the first try of those in black came from.

Above all, they must maintain or even increase, if possible, the level of intensity in defence since the All Blacks will come out with all their arsenal to reverse the series. Stay focused for 80 minutes and always play the next move without looking at the score.

Another Saturday red eye night is coming for those of us on this side of the world, but with a different flavour than the ones in the past.

Brett
Doing it all again will be the Wallabies biggest challenge. Without any question at all.

The thing about consistency, as everyone knows, is you have to do it all the time. The Wallabies did a lot of things well in Adelaide, and doing all those same things well again will be the first step to winning in Sydney.

But there’s also some significant improvements to be made. The lineout. The scrum. The 24 missed tackles, to name three obvious examples from a list that would run a bit longer.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Even just a 50 percent improvement in those three areas will make a big difference. Win a couple of scrums to paint a different picture. Not lose five lineouts from your own throw and suddenly the lineout drive comes into play. Miss fewer tackles and watch the pressure on the Boks grow.

Doing it all again will also show that they can actually do it all again. Stringing wins together has not come easy for this Wallabies team, and frankly, there’s no better time to start rectifying that than the maiden international fixture at the new Sydney Football Stadium.

Digger
Themselves, quite frankly.

The All Blacks will certainly be under immense pressure to rectify last weekend and salvage their fate in this competition. They simply have to find a way to get past that and not let it drag them further into the abyss.

Oh, and some attention to the breakdown would be good – no, actually a LOT of attention to the breakdown would be really good.

And bring back that kicking game from Ellis Park a few weeks back; a bit more variation would be nice to see.

Geoff
The All Blacks’ biggest challenge rests around subtle changes to their game plan. The Pumas were happy to play without the ball and backed their defence in – with great success. Look for the All Blacks to kick more this week, with more variation, to try to transfer some of the pressure back to the visitors.

With the Puma’s big men clogging the centre channels, look also for more incision closer to the ruck. They also must stop giving away penalties while in possession, and when they kick to a line out in the attacking 22, execute far more clinically.

That’s a lot more challenges that the question asked for, but it’s also indicative of where the AB’s sit right now. It’s a whole set of issues.

The challenge for Australia is far more straightforward. Prove that they’re a side capable of backing up one big effort with another.

Finally, it’s also a big test for the security at the new Allianz Football Stadium, ensuring that bags are checked thoroughly to prevent another distressing sniper incident.

Harry
The Springboks’ biggest challenge is to play rugby without an experienced Test ten.

Or a goal kicker who kicks for his club. Also, there is no lock cover, and Eben Etzebeth has played over 425 minutes this season.

So, it’s an “everything must go just right” weekend.

But hell, the Wallabies had everything go right last weekend: Nic White died and came back to life, Marika Koroibete was shot out of a cannon and hit a soft target, and Ox Nche scored so many times he didn’t.

OVER TO YOU: Make a case for a different team as the new Rugby Championship favourites.

And what’s your team’s biggest challenge this weekend?