Grand Final Preview Questions: Will Waqa bomb out? Brown gamble worth taking? Anyone have faith in bunker?

By Paul Suttor / Expert

If the Eels can knock over Penrith on Sunday night, it would be one of the biggest upsets in Grand Final history.

The Panthers are packed with size, skill and title-winning experience with only two players in their line-up taking part in their first premiership decider – winger Charlie Staines, centre Izack Tago and interchange duo Mitch Kenny and Jaeman Salmon.

Ryan Matterson, who won a title at the Roosters in 2018, and makeshift centre Bailey Simonsson, a member of the Raiders side which lost the following year, are Parramatta’s only two squad members with a Grand Final on their resume.

An Eels win, which would break their 36-year drought, would rank alongside Newcastle’s 1997 and 2001 triumphs, Penrith in 2003, Canberra (1989), the Bulldogs of ‘95, Balmain in 1969, the Cowboys of 2015 and the Wests Tigers of 2005 among the greatest Grand Final upsets since they became mandatory in 1954.

Here are the burning questions for the NRL decider

Will Blake be bombed off the park? 

“Last time we played these guys Waqa had some difficulty under the high ball but you don’t tip blokes out on the back of one game.” 

So said Eels coach Brad Arthur on Thursday when asked if he had any concerns about winger Waqa Blake being targeted by Nathan Cleary’s physics-defying swirly-whirly bombs.

But he’s hard more than one bad game under the high ball.

He dropped three of them in the 27-8 Qualifying Final loss and Arthur stuck by him. Inexplicably, Canberra barely kicked to him the next week and the Cowboys, after he coughed up a Chad Townsend kick in the first half last Saturday, failed to go back at wonky Waqa.

Cleary is not that charitable. He will test Blake out the first chance he gets on Sunday and will pepper his former teammate throughout the 80 minutes, if he’s not hooked earlier.

Arthur has the option of switching makeshift centre Bailey Simonsson to the flank from kick-off or midway through the match if Blake has another case of the fumbles but it’s a risk to be going into a Grand Final with a winger with buttery fingers when you’re facing the best bomber since Bigglesworth.

Is Arthur playing ducks and drakes with Brown? 

Parra’s coach has struck an early blow in the mind games department by naming Nathan Brown on the bench for what would be his first match at NRL level in three months.

It’s certainly caused a few second glances from the Panthers who think Brown has been chosen with one mission in mind – to rough up Cleary. 

Nathan Brown (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

The old adage is that hardly anyone gets sent off in a Grand Final so Brown will have extra leeway to rush up on Penrith’s primary kicker to dish out some heavy contact.

Brown’s aggression is a double-edged sword – his propensity for giving away cheap penalties is one of the reasons why he’s been dropped for the best part of 12 weeks.

Arthur says he’s looking to use him either side of half-time to ease the workload on middle forward mainstays Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo but don’t be surprised if Brown gets a run before then if Penrith’s attacking machine is on top in the early exchanges.

Can Edwards hop into Kangaroos squad?

As it stands it looks like Dylan Edwards will be on the outside looking in when Australia’s World Cup squad is named on Monday because coach Mal Meninga has the luxury of switching Latrell Mitchell from centre to fullback if James Tedesco were to become unavailable in the tournament later this month.

With Jack Wighton, Matt Burton and Valentine Holmes certain to be in the squad to fill centre spots if need be, Edwards looks like being an unlucky omission despite being in career-best form. 

If he can duplicate last weekend’s effort against South Sydney when he was the most influential player on the field, he will go close to a Clive Churchill Medal and will surely cause Meninga to make a last-minute adjustment to his squad.

Does anyone have faith in bunker?

NRL head of football Graham Annesley in his Monday briefing admitted there were three blatant try rulings that the match officials got wrong last weekend from the grand total of two matches.

The forward pass call that led to Parra’s opening try in the 24-20 triumph over the Cowboys and the bunker’s puzzling obstruction decision to deny Charlie Staines and the Stephen Crichton put-down for a late try when Penrith’s win over Souths was beyond doubt.

Feeling confident fans that they’ll get it right on Sunday? Didn’t think so.

The forward pass call was bad but unfortunately it’s one of those things that happen when a pass’s point of release and reception are obscured in the touch judge’s line of sight.

But there is no excuse for the Staines and Crichton blunders – the curse of overthinking that led to the Wests Tigers being dudded on an escort call in Townsville after the siren is still endemic in the bunker.

And the person who made that decision, Ashley Klein, will be the main whistleblower on Sunday at Accor Stadium. 

Will Cleary be forced to follow Johns onto Test bench?

Nathan Cleary is no guarantee to be wearing the No.7 jersey when the Kangaroos kick off their World Cup campaign against Fiji on October 15 in Leeds.

Daly Cherry-Evans, as the incumbent and likely vice-captain to James Tedesco, appears set to get the nod alongside his Maroons comrade Cameron Munster in the halves.

It’s still arguable about whether Cleary is the best player in the game or not but it won’t be long before he holds that undisputed title.

His predicament is shaping up as similar to Andrew Johns in the late 1990s and early 2000s when he was used as a hooker or bench utilty at Origin and Test level to accommodate Geoff Toovey and Brett Kimmorley in the teams.

That was the wrong call then and anything other than Cleary as Australia’s starting halfback would be just as incorrect now.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Are fire brigades on standby in the Cumberland precinct? 

Now if the Eels do somehow manage to upset the Panthers, can someone alert the firefighting authorities to be on red alert.

When the club broke its first premiership drought to claim its maiden title in 1981, the fans partied so hardy that the old Cumberland Oval grandstand caught ablaze and was left in a smouldering ruin.

At least that led to the dilapidated ground being rebuilt into what was then a state-of-the-art stadium by 1986 standards before a few years ago being replaced again by what is now known as CommBank Stadium.

The Crowd Says:

2022-10-01T11:43:52+00:00

Rossi

Roar Rookie


He's already been man of the match or close to it a couple times- Pearce never played one good game for NSW

2022-10-01T07:59:25+00:00

Worlds Biggest

Guest


Paul not sure you can rank the 05 Tigers in the upset category, didn’t they hammer the Cows in Week 1 Semi, the Cows weren’t expected to make the GF having upset Eels in Prelim. For the Eels sake I hope all Waqa has been doing this week is catching bombs, he has one job to do tomorrow night. One job ! Brad Arthur did the right thing bringing Brown back in although he will be underdone. Cartwright should have been there instead of Jacob Arthur. Whilst Cartwright is rocks & diamonds, he can come up with some trickery which is needed against the great panthers defence. Good luck to both teams, Panthers by 10 & Edwards for Clive Churchill.

2022-10-01T07:41:26+00:00

Megeng

Roar Rookie


Which is why he's there, of course. To make Cleary think twice and if that doesn't work, make him not think at all

2022-10-01T06:22:30+00:00

The Sporacle

Roar Rookie


Basically has the same win percent at SOO as Locky and has lost 5 regular season games in three years i think, but yeah good point :thumbup:

2022-10-01T04:50:07+00:00

JennyFromPenny

Guest


Two tests v NZ, Johns was able to play hooker with Langer at half. It definitely couldn't have worked the other way around.

AUTHOR

2022-10-01T04:49:31+00:00

Paul Suttor

Expert


stats provider, u will have to cough up cash to access

2022-10-01T04:29:27+00:00

Muzz

Guest


John, it was Dylan Brown who went in knees first and injured Hutch. I reckon Nathan Browns would hurt more.

2022-10-01T04:10:12+00:00

Dwanye

Roar Rookie


I remember langer being half and Johns hooker in a test, can’t remember which one, lol. Not sure how many it happened in.

2022-10-01T04:02:31+00:00

Dwanye

Roar Rookie


Golly, good work Mr Suttor. Is ‘Champion Data’ a site I can access?

2022-10-01T02:23:17+00:00

Rellum

Roar Guru


Geoff Toovey and Brett Kimmorley? No Langer? The disrespect is palpable at times

2022-10-01T02:18:25+00:00

Muzz

Guest


Cleary could potentially be another Pearce. Let's see if he performs better than the last SOO series.

AUTHOR

2022-10-01T02:06:16+00:00

Paul Suttor

Expert


you get an A-minus ... Mavin was not a GF, it was a semi

AUTHOR

2022-10-01T02:05:07+00:00

Paul Suttor

Expert


https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/bombs-away-waqa-s-record-among-nrl-s-worst-under-high-ball-20220926-p5bl4f.html According to Champion Data, Blake and likely Panthers opponent Brian To’o rank as two of the weakest flyers when it comes to defusing bomb kicks in 2022. Of the back-three exponents to field 10 or more kicks this season, To’o’s 50 per cent defusal rate (10 attempts for five caught and five dropped) is the worst in the game. Blake’s 12 catches from 17 attempts (71%) ranks ahead of only To’o, Matt Dufty (69%) and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (60%), but the Eels winger freely accepts his finals struggles will have him in the crosshairs come Sunday night.

2022-10-01T01:13:00+00:00

JennyFromPenny

Guest


All the best to the Parra's. No doubt all now feel the same weight of expectation that Newtown carried, their 38 year drought leading into GF '81. You also would then know, that the footy god also likes having an occasional chuckle.

2022-10-01T00:47:52+00:00

Eelsalmighty

Roar Rookie


I think Simonsson and Blake will swap positions, but I'm not sure if that will make a huge difference under the bombs. I'm glad N. Brown's in, and don't understand why he's been out. We need that extra muscle off our bench, and whilst I don't think he'll get big minutes, he will/should make some strong metres, and he can defend. We need to keep taking/creating chances. We can't rely on defending them out of the game, not entirely, so I think we need to take some risks/make some opportunities/keep them guessing. Forget the draught. As a Parra fan I'm used to it. Play some risk on footy, we'll still have the draught if it fails, but it's our best chance of breaking it, and it'll be an awesome game, a truely memorable way to break it if it pays off. GO THE EELS.

2022-10-01T00:23:44+00:00

Albo

Roar Rookie


I think your workmate might be dreaming ? They don't have "bomb dropping' stats, but according to the NRL website stats section , under the heading handling errors, we see Zac Lomax head the top 50 error players with 39 handling errors, with Waqa Blake in there at 27 , and the 50th in the list Jake Averillo on 17. Brian To'o doesn't appear in the Top 50 list. And from my memory this season , I can probably recall one dropped ball from To'o? He is generally pretty safe under the high ball. But I am sure Moses will be testing both Panthers wingers as they have limited height stats against their opponents.

2022-10-01T00:12:18+00:00

Albo

Roar Rookie


I'm sure the Titans' Senior Advisor will get the Australian team selections right ! :silly:

2022-09-30T23:22:29+00:00

The Sporacle

Roar Rookie


Did you see the back end of Manlys season :thumbup:

2022-09-30T22:54:31+00:00

Andy J

Roar Rookie


“That was the wrong call then and anything other than Cleary as Australia’s starting halfback would be just as incorrect now.“ must have missed origin

2022-09-30T22:34:11+00:00

Dwanye

Roar Rookie


A workmate told me To’o is ranked worse this year under the bomb in stats, is this true. I’m hopeless at even finding the stats sites, let alone navigating them. Interesting if stat is correct. Moses has an ok kick.

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