With the Kangaroos seemingly marching confidently towards their 12th World Cup triumph, the question of whether another Australian title does anything at all for rugby league globally is a fair one.
Despite expanding the tournament to 16 teams for the first time since 2000 and a pervading narrative that consistently speaks of international expansion and the impending victory of a Pacific nation, Australia are now short-priced favourites to win the silverware.
Even though the Kangaroos are nominally the fourth-ranked team on the international stage, their performances in the UK have them now bedded in at $1.45 with PlayUp to lift the trophy in around three weeks’ time, with New Zealand looming as their only serious threat at $5.00 and England very much an outsider at $8.00.
The opening ten days of play have been far from boring, yet they’ve been potentially more skewed than many had hoped in terms of points. Just one match has been seriously competitive. Aside from Wales’ clash with the Cook Islands on 20 October, tipping winners has been automatic, with Tonga’s poor display against Papua New Guinea and the subsequently close score line something of an anomaly.
It was pleasing to see Tonga bounce back somewhat against the Welsh in their second match, yet along with Samoa, they have been the disappointments of the tournament thus far. Considering the important role they both play in challenging the top three nations, with a continuation of their international improvement hopefully seeing one of them claim the trophy in the short to medium term, what they have dished up thus far has been mediocre.
England’s demolition of Samoa by 54 points was humbling for them and simply unthinkable heading into the tournament, Tonga then stumbled badly against Papua New Guinea before scraping across the line. When Samoa put 72 on the gallant Greeks, one could only have imaged how many the Kiwis or Kangaroos would have racked up, and it reminded everyone of the vast gap between the elite and those pleased just to be participants.
(Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images for RLWC)
When Tonga struggled to kill off the Welsh challenge on Tuesday morning, it had become abundantly clear that there still appears to be daylight between the Australians and the two countries seen as the lightning rods for global rugby league expansion and participation; the great Pacific hopes of many fans who believe that new contenders and winners are the best way to see the game evolve and grow.
Sadly, that will not be happening in 2022, with the Kangaroos and Kiwis on a crash course to meet in a semi-final on 11 November in Leeds that will, in all probability, decide the champion.
Tonga and Samoa will belt the heck out of each other in their quarter-final, only for the winner to be outclassed by the English on 12 November. With the home side almost certain to go through to the final and the Australians waiting to recommence hostilities, the sense of deja vu escapes no one.
The fact that the predicted path through to the 19 November final in Manchester is so clear, predictable and historically familiar cannot be a good thing for rugby league as a whole. After the promise of the 2017 tournament where Tonga excelled and Fiji shared third place with them, many believed that things were finally to be very different, that a new level of competitiveness in international rugby league was about to be born.
If that were the case, we as fans would be the greatest beneficiaries, yet instead the Kangaroos will likely outlast the English in yet another World Cup final.
It is certainly no fault of those at the top of the pile, no fault of anyone actually, yet as a limited game in an increasingly competitive global market, maintaining the prestige of World Cup play requires evolution, new challengers and a freshness that international rugby league has historically been unable to deliver.
The situation would only be exacerbated by calls to ban Australian players from representing the nation of their heritage, and one can only imagine the appalling ratings and level of engagement achieved had those cynical voices been heard.
The fact they have not been clearly shows that those in governance fully appreciate the farce a World Cup without the current eligibility rules would become.
Thankfully the 2022 World Cup is far from farce and will hopefully feature some decent quarter-finals and, who knows, maybe a shock result somewhere along the line. However, it does look like a looming coronation for the Kangaroos, and after their winning of all bar one World Cup since 1972, one wonders just how long it will be before we see real change in the international game.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Limited resources - not enough to do both well
Footy fan in SG
Guest
Because he raised it, and when challenged he goes silent.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Again, why can’t we do both ?
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Why mutually exclusive? Unfortunately, there are limited resources available to League. We need to build a truly national domestic competition with PNG and NZ, then worry about other places. Until then, first gen players from other countries are more than enough for our purpose. Until there is a truly strong, vibrant and fully national competition (including getting rid of or moving some of the less viable Sydney teams), I am quite content for international League to wither and die. Including England. We just don't need it.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
i though we showed our benevolence by letting them win the Bledisloe cup 20 years in a row
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
What I'm saying is that that is the starting point. You've got to start somewhere.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
They might be celebrating in Tonga, but that doesn't mean they are all about to start playing League. I drank a few beers and had a day off when Australia won the America's Cup, still yet to become a yacht driver :silly:
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
I've said it umpteen times, but the crappy NRL development system actively discourages Melbourne from developing local talent. With the club footing the bill to develop talent, which appeals more - the huge investiture of money, time and effort needed to develop the game from primary school age upwards across an entire state (most of which wouldn't even have suitable grounds or goalposts to play on or with)? Or link up with a few feeder clubs in QLD and provide an avenue for top talent that is already established and ready? I know what I'd be doing. NRL player development is like something out of the dark ages :angry:
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Why must the two be mutually exclusive
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
You're going forwards or backwards, treading water is an illusion. And for the record, wasting a license in South East Qld when the westernmost NRL club is Melbourne is going backward :unhappy:
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Then I hope Australia lose. I don't want any international league, it detracts from the main game - our domestic competition. Let the minnows (including England) wither and die, we don't need them. Australia, PNG and NZ are more than enough. We should be putting our effort into expanding west through Australia, not hoping for international growth.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Mate I don't disagree on any of your points, but why do this in a footy thread? Go bother your local church about it
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
They're a C U next Tuesday, don't waste your time. "Guest account" tells you all you need to know.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
International RL is a joke. Several of the teams are filling spots with players that are born in Australia and who play reserve grade or less. Growing the game should be done domestically in non-traditional states. Giving a license to the Dolphins was a massive waste of a great opportunity. NRL is best as a domestic game; we don't need it to be international (NZ and PNG excepted). Cut the dead wood and focus on what is important - domestic growth!
Nine out of ten
Roar Rookie
Qué?
Nine out of ten
Roar Rookie
Poms will stop Kangaroos.
Rob9
Roar Guru
Not suggesting state-based competitions. I’m suggesting an entrance into the States should focus resources on a region such as the South (or possibly Mid West). That could mean multiple teams in states like Florida, Georgia etc. (not a Florida team, Georgia team). This as opposed to spreading yourself thin with teams in the major markets in the North East and the West Coast and everywhere in between. Concentrate the effort (more cost effective too) and target an area where rugby doesn’t have a strong hold yet with the goal of becoming the rugby code of choice in that region. And the South as an example still represents a population of over 50 million.
Nat
Roar Guru
I would disagree with the last point about forming state based comps on the point that it is limited and and does away with the foundation that NRL was built upon. NRL, like AFL, is built on 100 years of suburban tribalism. League already has the biggest state-based comp in the country. Take that away and form a Tahs/Reds/Brumbies-type comp and we lose 100k's of fans and dilute the cash cow that is Origin. Agree though, the clubs & NRL won't (shouldn't) allow their product to be affected for the international game. Fox are paying the NRL +$1m a game simply because they can sell the advertising to justify it. This the the juxtaposition, the clubs are so powerful and the origin is such a behemoth that the international game has fallen by the wayside. Where a top line rugby player make a large % of their salary from a national contract, a WC appearance for most league players is barely a month's wages. Hence the power attributed to the clubs. The upside of that is the heritage rule. A $750k club wage allows a player a heart over money decision to play for their family, thus, strengthening the international game. Irrespective of who wears the jumper, if Lebanon/France/Greece et al... do well it makes the news in their respective country.
The Set Peace
Roar Rookie
You obviously are not writing this article from England, cause if you were you would give them more than a fleeting chance, in amongst the premier league season weeks out from a world cup and an autumn RU international tour coming up I'm really surprised how much coverage and support the League boys are getting, there is a genuine belief that they can do it. As for the games picking themselves you neglect to mention how many of you Aussies never gave England a chance against Samoa and they smashed them. Typical arrogant article from an Aussie writer who probably thinks the Socceroos will win the world cup.
TA
Guest
Im in favour of the World Cup but I would love to watch another competition with Qld and NSW playing England, Tonga etc. I cant see it happening but it would be interesting.