Few things are sweeter in the A-Liga season than a Friday night OG Derby at Coopers Stadium. I love this fixture. Roll home from work, pop a stubby and prepare for what is usually peak A-League chaos.
Adelaide
Adelaide come into this game on a short turnaround, following a 4-2 win at Western United that in truth, flattered the Reds. They lost the Expected Goals battle convincingly, 1.63 to 3.65, and gave up 6 Big Scoring Chances.
Through the season, Carl Veart’s men have been conceding nearly 2.5 Big Scoring Chances per 90 minutes, which doesn’t bode well for a visit from the Victory that boasts a trove of attacking talent. The likes of Nani, Brimmer and Fornaroli won’t be as wasteful as Dylan Wenzell-Halls and Lachie Wales.
(Photo by Maurizio Lagana/Getty Images)
In the Reds’ favour is their chance creation. They lead the A-League in Big Scoring Chances created, and their star Socceroo Craig Goodwin leads all players in this metric. The move to a central role for Ben Halloran has paid immediate dividends as well.
The question will be whether their attack can produce such a swathe of chances against a truly excellent Victory defence.
Melbourne Victory
Victory arrive at Coopers Stadium similarly flattered by a 4-0 win over Newcastle Jets last Friday night. From open play, the Victory have played to a rather paltry +0.28xg/90 minutes through the first five games of the season.
The pre-season take on the navy blues was that they would overwhelm teams with Johnny Warren Medallist Jake Brimmer, marquee man Nani and former Socceroo Chris Ikonimidis, but this simply hasn’t been the case.
They’ve failed to create more than 1.5xg from open play in any game this season. Their results have come on the back of a stingy and structured defence.
Victory are allowing 1 Big Scoring Chance per 90 minutes this season, an impressive stat in a league that is known for how open it is. They do this despite a rather poor press. The Jets routinely played through any Victory pressure last week, but what the Victory excel at is defending their own penalty area.
Josh Brilliante and Rai Marchand are excellent screeners in the double pivot that Tony Popovich employs in front of Roderick Miranda and Leigh Broxham.
Whether that ability to absorb pressure in their own back third can hold up against Goodwin and co is the question I have for this Round 6 matinee.
Verdict
This game features two teams high on confidence, with contrasting styles. Adelaide will have no problem playing through any Victory press and into the final third. It will be incumbent on Goodwin and Halloran to try and pry open a Melbourne side that simply doesn’t allow many touches and chances inside their penalty area.
The presence of the 6”4 Hiroshi Ibusuki on a shorter Broxham is an avenue to goal I expect them to exploit, particularly with the outstanding quality of delivery that Goodwin possesses.
Craig Goodwin of Adelaide United. (Photo by James Elsby/Getty Images)
Though they create a multitude of chances, they have missed a league worst 12 Big Scoring Chances, and can’t afford the same poor return against a misly Victory that simply don’t allow teams to get into scoring positions often.
On the other end, Victory contain more than enough attacking quality to exploit the Reds in transition. Nani in particular has shown off a sophisticated passing game when dropping into the half-spaces, and Nick D’Agostino’s ability to run in behind spells trouble for a very open Adelaide defensive unit.
Expect Brimmer to continue to provide some more magic with the space afforded to him too.
Both of these teams are overrated by pundits off the back of flattering results, but I do expect goals in front of a packed Coopers Stadium, and the points shared in a 2-2 draw.
Tigertown
Guest
I enjoyed it. Good article. Adelaide roared into top gear. Victory keeps signing strikers who twiddle their expensive fingers.
Sports
Guest
Victory central midfield is missing in action going forwards. Bruno and Nani would be better at a team like Sydney that do slow build ups rather than just counter attacks up the wing. Nani is putting in a lot of work but wouldn’t it be cheaper to hire someone younger and local like Wales that has the legs to do it for 90 minutes? But than again that is what Falami is supposed to be doing I guess. It would be very tough to be the one picking which players to try sign.
Cameron Handley
Roar Rookie
I did write this Thursday lunch time, but it's alright
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
Your harsh on Bruno, he held the ball up , his teammates didnt seem in a hurry to overlap when he did and the ref ignored the fouls he drew. MV turned into Perth Glory for the night.
Garry
Roar Rookie
13,504
NoMates
Roar Rookie
As a neutral i enjoyed the game a lot. The big crowd showed through out the game with its cheers and boos and it made the game just that much better. The Jap import did well and Goodwin came out of the game injury free. As for Victory? Burno looked lost and the whole team looked like they were out of ideas.
Stevo
Roar Rookie
Victory looking lame and that Bruno fella, was he playing? Seemed anonymous TBH.
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
Good one release the preview after the match. Another weird A-league match. I dont understand Goodwin gets selected for the Socceroos and he is Adelaides hitman for the night and risks injury. The commentators white line fever, it was more red meat fever because his passing and set pieces were astray till the end of the match. VIctory none of their players make selection and they drowned their sorrows maybe. Brimmer and Dagastino on the bench why was that. You would think the reverse should have happened . THis is the problem in the A-league any excuse will do. Strange refereeing as well I thought Nani looked more up for it than the rest of his team, getting fouled a lot with some incredible no calls. Popovic takes him off though in contrast to other matches. The same ref that protected Phoenix against City now became blind when Veart is involved. Van Der Saag is actually not a bad finisher. I dont understand the Blackwood business, and now Alagich has become the new Blackwood the goal fluffer, even his attempt at a Maradona in the box was a fail ref still gave Adelaide a corner, if you put Van Der Saag in the Blackwood, Alagich position instead of the goal fluffer they would have a handy addition. Ibusuki for once he scored an actual great header , the best header he has scored at the club. Broxham is becoming a bit of a joke, every one owns him except Newcastle.
Grem
Roar Rookie
It is a highlight game that I love. Last night was a great game again even though one team ended up dominating. Great crowd, great sound, great atmosphere - fantastic to watch. Hopefully a good majority of those supporters continue to return after such a fine performance. And Craig Goodwin - like a fine bottle of wine he just gets better.
Sports
Guest
Victory didn’t look great last night. Great turn out in Adelaide with around 16,500 people coming to the game.