Statistical significance: Why Hughes must replace Finch

When you think of the most prolific Australian one-day batters in the more than 50-year history of the men’s white-ball format, I’m sure many names come to mind.

Perhaps you think of the finishing prowess of Michael Bevan or the stability of Dean Jones or the magnificent pull shot of Ricky Ponting.

However, one name that very rarely comes to mind is Daniel Peter Hughes.

Hughes is a statistical anomaly. Compared to other batters in the vast history of the Australian domestic one-day competition he ranks among the very highest, far higher than David Warner and Aaron Finch. He’s even statistically better than Matthew Hayden, Damien Martyn and the late great Dean Jones.

A valiant left-handed opener with a talismanic cover drive that would make Rahul Dravid proud, Hughes has been a staple of the New South Wales top order for the last eight seasons. His name is touted every now and then for national honours, but he is yet to make an Australian squad. The retirement of Aaron Finch this year has opened the door for a new opener to stabilise the struggling top order.

So at 33 years old the humble, jovial opener from Cowra has his chance to break into the Australian side – that is, if George Bailey and co are willing to do what they should’ve done years ago and include him.

Hughes’s prolific batting average of 57.90 in domestic one-day cricket is more than noteworthy. In the history of the competition, Hughes holds the third highest batting average of players with a minimum of ten innings. The only two he trails are the aforementioned Michael Bevan (61.18), who many consider the greatest one-day finisher of all time, and Steve Smith (59.03), the best since Don Bradman.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Of the top ten batters on that list, Hughes is the only one not to play ODI cricket. In fact, of the top 20, the only other player to not play ODI cricket is Dominic Michael, who currently represents Samoa in T20s.

With Australia’s ODI series against England kicking off today in preparation for next year’s ODI World Cup, Travis Head has been given the first bite of the cherry in replacing long-time incumbent Finch. Head’s batting record speaks for itself. He averages a respectable 41.35 in Australian domestic one-day games in just one more innings than Hughes, and he boasts two ODI hundreds from 45 innings.

However, he still falls short of Hughes’s average by a considerable 16.55 runs, approximately the same difference in the ODI batting averages of Marcus Stoinis and Mitchell Starc.

The other advantage Hughes has over his counterpart is that Head typically bats at No. 3 for South Australia, having opened just once in the 2022-23 season, and he often comes to the crease at the back end of the powerplay. Hughes, on the other hand, has opened consistently for NSW, having faced the brand-new Kookaburra in every List A match he’s played in the last four seasons and beyond.

Hughes has more domestic List A runs than both incumbent David Warner and Finch’s replacement, Travis Head, despite batting fewer times than both of them. He has also scored double the number of centuries as retiring captain Finch despite walking to the crease on just over half the number of innings Aaron has.

It’s also important to consider his smaller number of games is a byproduct of the loss of the home-and-away one-day season, with each team playing only five or six games per year since 2013-14 (although he played seven in 2014-15). His eight centuries rank him eighth in the history of the competition, and he’s the only player in the top ten to have played fewer than 60 innings (34), and he holds the highest strike rate in that ten.

Considering that Hughes scores a century in 23.5 per cent of his domestic one-day innings – compared to Warner’s 12.8 per cent Finch’s 6.3 per cent, Head’s 8.6 per cent and Ben McDermott’s 13.3 per cent – it’s a marvel he is still yet to wear the Aussie colours.

The left-hander has been the most reliable opener in the domestic competition and is only improving with age. He has already recorded two List A centuries this season – 117 against Victoria in September and 139 against South Australia last weekend. There is no reason Hughes shouldn’t make his ODI debut against England this series apart from the fact he’s not in the squad.

With a now retired captain and an ODI World Cup just around the corner, the Australian team is yearning for stability and consistency at the top of the order. Daniel Hughes has highlighted himself over the past seasons as a reliable run-scorer at the top of an ever-changing batting order. The stats prove it.

What else does he have to do to wear the canary yellow?