Broncos 2023 Outlook: Missing finals not an option for desperate Kevvie hoping for a Red Hill resurgence

There was once a time you couldn’t imagine a top eight without the Broncos in it. The world turned upside in 2020 when the club was handed a first ever wooden spoon.

They only managed a slight jump in 2021 finishing 14th spot in Kevin Walters’ first year in charge but they were on a mission to turn it all around last year and with the help of star recruits Adam Reynolds and Kurt Capewell, they looked like finals certainties.

Sitting in fourth spot throughout the middle of the season, the backs were firing, Pat Carrigan was playing like a man possessed, and it seemed the Brisbane of old were back.

Then, it all fell apart. Walters was a coach with no respect, Reynolds just couldn’t get his fitness right and Carrigan copped a five-week suspension. They went on to lose five of their last six games, including two 50-plus-point thrashings at the hands of Melbourne and Parramatta. They fell to ninth spot and miss the top eight by a measly two-point differential.

Will 2023 be the year they get back to playing September footy?

The path to the trophy

They showed us how good they can be. They have a capable squad that can get the job done.

Reynolds undoubtedly made an impact last year, it wasn’t quite as much as the club had hoped. If he can stay healthy, he will be able to do what couldn’t quite get done in 2022, which can prove the difference between the top eight and finishing in the also-rans.

Then you have the big boppers in guys like Carrigan and Payne Haas. Talent overload. When they aren’t busy being suspended or asking for releases, they are close to unstoppable. Marty Taupau recently joined the ranks to help fill out the pack, and ex-Tiger Jock Madden will be a great backup for the halves or at dummy half.

The Brisbane backline has the potential to cause their opposition a lot of headaches. Talented fullback Reece Walsh returns to Red Hill hoping to solve the fullback issue, and English World Cup star Herbie Farnworth will be looking to put an injury ridden 2022 behind him and come out firing. Reliable veteran winger Corey Oates heads into his eleventh season ready to do it all again, Ezra Mam is chomping at the bit to partner Reynolds in the halves, while Kotoni Staggs will be out to remind everyone just how good he can be.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

There is also more talent ready to come through the ranks. One of the positives to take out of trying so many different players and combinations in 2022 was that some of the young guys got some valuable first-grade experience.

If all of it comes together, Kevvie should be able to breathe easy.

The danger signs ahead

De-fence! (cha-cha-cha) De-fence! (cha-cha-cha).

I’m always in the ‘that’s where games are won’ camp. I tell my son’s footy team all the time “there is no point scoring 100 points just to let the other team score 101.” The Broncos are at times flashy in attack, but their defence looked like Swiss cheese throughout last season.

They ranked number one for offloads conceded with 293, third for average run meters conceded per game with 1517, and fourth highest in missed tackles with 797. The wheels certainly fell off after Carrigan was suspended, and Haas did his best to carry the squad but couldn’t do it all.

They have lost a few forwards including Ryan James who hung up his boots, Zac Hosking who joined the Panthers and Rhys Kennedy who headed to England. TC Robati is also currently stood down pending court proceedings. Those who remain – including Taupau – are more than capable to get the job done, but must be consistent.

They can’t afford blowouts like the back end of last season, and missing out on finals footy by such a small margin shows just how important it is to keep the defence in check. They’ve certainly got some big boys, but something was just missing in the execution last year. They can’t happen again.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Then you had the coaching issues and off-field dramas which can also de-rail a season. There was a lot of unrest last year with players like Cobbo and now-Knight Tyson Gamble undermining Kevvie on podcasts. If issues like that continue it will not be good for morale, or results.

The draw 

After a tough opener against the premiers in Penrith, Brisbane will enjoy five weeks straight at Suncorp. During that time they play the Cowboys, Tigers, and Dragons, with their historic clash against Wayne Bennett and the Dolphins (sounds like a band from the 1960s) in Round 4.

They head to Darwin to take on the Eels in Round 8, and will also play three games at the famous Gabba throughout the season.

The majority of their matches will be on Fridays and Saturdays with only four Thursday night games and one on a Sunday. They get 15 matches with seven or more days turnaround.

The Broncos have to wait until Round 16 for their first bye, with their two others scheduled for Rounds 19 and 25.

The key trio: Reynolds, Mam, Haas

Even while injured last season, the knowledge and leadership Reynolds could still provide to the guys at training and from the sideline was instrumental. But there is no doubt when he is fit, healthy and actually on the field, his presence is invaluable.

Combinations were an issue last year, and finding the perfect partner for Reynolds was one area that proved difficult. Mam is hoping to permanently wear the number six jersey, and if he is the right fit, it could just be the lift the Broncos need.

Taking out Dally M Prop of the Year alongside his fourth straight Brisbane Player of the Year award in 2022, Hass is the kind of forward that every coach wishes they had in their side. When he is on, that usually means so are the Broncos.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Player under pressure: Reece Walsh

Controversy seems to follow Walsh, so he will be looking for a successful season on the field and a quiet one off it.

All eyes will be on the returning Bronco to live up to the expectations at fullback – because players like Farnworth and Cobbo will be ready to pounce if he doesn’t!

The hidden gem: Tyson Smoothy and Blake Mozer

I’m cheating with two, as I’m really excited about the prospects of this duo. While Billy Walters and Cory Paix battle it out for the dunny half role, Smoothy and Blaze are right behind them ready to stake their claim.

Coach’s safety rating

While Kevvie won’t be one of the coaches nervous about losing his job early on in the year, he will still be sweating heading into a season without a contract past 2023. He will surely be shown the door if the Broncos fail to reach the finals again.

Premiership odds

They’re not considered one of the frontunners at $17 at PlayUp , sitting eighth overall between the Eels and the Broncos.

Predicted finish

The bookies have got this one about right — they should be sneaking into eighth spot.

Round 1 predicted team

1 Reece Walsh
2 Selwyn Cobbo
3 Herbie Farnworth
4 Kotoni Staggs
5 Corey Oates
6 Ezra Mam
7 Adam Reynolds
8 Payne Haas
9 Billy Walters
10 Thomas Flegler
11 Jordan Riki
12 Kurt Capewell
13 Patrick Carrigan
Interchange
14 Cory Paix
15 TC Robati
16 Corey Jensen
17 Keenan Palasia

Other squad members: Kobe Hetherington (injured), Blake Mozer, Brendan Piakura, Deine Mariner, Delouise Hoeter, Ethan Quai, Jesse Arthars, Jock Madden, Jordan Pereira, Logan Bayliss, Tesi Niu, Xavier Willison, Tyson Smoothy.

Season draw: 

To view full NRL draw, click here