NRL fans have been blessed with some tight fights for finals football over the past few seasons. Superior for and against elevated the Gold Coast Titans into eighth place on the ladder in 2021. Last season, four points separated seventh-placed South Sydney and tenth-placed St George Illawarra Dragons.
With trials underway and season 2023 lurking around the corner, it feels as though the fight for the final few top-eight spots will be tighter than perhaps ever before.
Truthfully, it’s incredibly hard to envision any of last season’s top seven – Penrith, North Queensland, Cronulla, Parramatta, Melbourne, the Roosters, and Souths – relinquishing their finals football positions.
Parramatta looks most at risk of falling behind the pack with Reed Mahoney and Isaiah Papali’i’s departures leaving major dents in Brad Arthur’s side. Josh Hodgson has arrived hoping to reignite the form which saw him guide Canberra to become title contenders, while Eels fans will be praying their coach can turn J’maine Hopgood, Jack Murchie, and Matt Doorey into forward stalwarts as he previously has with players like Papali’I and Ryan Matterson. Losing Tom Opacic and Marata Niukore’s also creates further headaches.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
As for the rest – Melbourne, well, they’re Melbourne, even with a decimated forward pack. The same can be said for Penrith. It’s hard to envision Ivan Cleary’s men missing the top four let alone finals altogether, though it remains to be seen if they can maintain their lofty standards without Api Koroisau, Viliame Kikau and assistant coaches Cameron Ciraldo and Andrew Webster who depart for tougher pastures.
Brandon Smith’s arrival strengthens the Roosters. Souths will remain in the mix. The Cowboys look poised to continue their rise, could they push for the title? And reigning Dally M winner, Nicho Hynes, should spearhead Cronulla’s maintenance of last year’s standards.
But glance around the league and you’ll spy numerous teams below last season’s top 7 who’ve immensely improved.
Belmore has certainly been sparked by the arrival of Ciraldo. Ask any Bulldogs player, official, or fan, particularly Willie Mason, and they will explain the club’s atmosphere has shifted in the last three months. Kikau will team up again with Ciradlo along with Mahoney, Ryan Sutton, Andrew Davey, Fa’amanu Brown, Hayze Perham, Karl Olaupu, and Franklin Pele amongst others as the Bulldog’s new recruits for 2023.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Add them to the current crop of talent the club already boasts – Matt Burton, Josh Addo-Carr, Luke Thompson, Max King, Jacob Kiraz, and Tevita Pangai Junior. As well as the expected explosion of Paul Alamoti on the NRL scene and many have this cocktail of talent seeing the Dogs of War returning to September’s promised land for the first time since 2016.
In the nation’s capital, Ricky Stuart will, as always, have the Raiders up for the fight. A steely, dominant pack led by arguably the game’s best forward last season Joseph Tapine, along with Josh Papali’I, Elliot Whitehead, Corey Harawira-Naera, Emre Guler, and Hudson Young will keep the Raiders in the fight. Another pre-season for Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty will help cement their partnership, with Xavier Savage and the rest of Canberra’s back-five offering a perfect combination of flair and grit should see Ricky’s Raiders there or thereabouts come September.
Despite last year’s implosion, many expect Brisbane to fight for the top eight again this year. General Adam Reynolds is back for another season in the famous Broncos seven jersey. Reece Walsh returns, and Selwyn Cobbo has another pre-season under his belt and undoubtedly many more levels of performance to hit. Consistency will be Kotoni Staggs’ aim for the year. Brisbane also possesses a fine forward pack that should set the platform for a finals hunt.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Tom Trbojevic’s return to fitness should please Manly fans. They need at least 20 games from the games great mercurial if they are any chance of fighting for a spot in the top eight, especially with a controversial new coach at the helm, rookie five-eighth, and potential hangover from last season’s tumultuous conclusion all providing serious headwinds to their campaign.
Last season’s wooden spooners, the West Tigers, have the potential to cause an unlikely disruption to the establishment. Koroisau, Papali’I, David Klemmer, and John Bateman bolster a strong forward pack. The question remains, will their backline be able to capitalise on the platform the big men lay? If it all clicks into gear there is no reason why they can’t be in and around the eight at the end of the season.
Though it should be noted, this is the Tigers and anything, absolutely anything is possible.
As for the rest?
It remains to be seen whether Ben Hunt can again singlehandedly inspire the Dragons this season.
The jury remains out on the Warriors, despite some astute signings.
The Dolphins are unknown, even with an experienced pack and Wayne Bennett’s guidance.
The Kieran Foran-led Titans – can they once more unlock David Fifita?
And will Jackson Hastings’ guiding touch be enough to help the Knights? And how will Kalyn Ponga manage his second move to five-eighth?
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As always with sport, and with rugby league, there remain few absolutes heading into the NRL season. For all they’d like, teams can appear superficially strong yet nothing is guaranteed, no result secured, until the selected 17 themselves cross the white line each week and achieve them.
Injury, form, contract disputes, off-field indiscretions, tumultuous boardroom dealings, player and coach distaste, delayed chemistry, backlash, and outcry from jersey scandals are just some of the variables which threaten the derailment of a teams season, and yet a sense of excitement can’t help but descend on us fans as we gawk from the edge of the exhibit at our idols in their pursuit of glory.
Gus O
Guest
I agree, Broncos should be better in 2023 and look good for the top 8. For Manly, do they gave enough horsepower in their forward pack to be competitive? Had a better pack in Turbo’s brilliant year.
Gus O
Guest
How much more money could the Tigers offer Moses? From what I’ve read he’s already well over $1m per season at Parra?
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Only one change to the top8 from the previous season would a rare. It's only happened once in the NRL era. 98-99 (2) 99-00 (2) 00-01 (3) 01-02 (1) 03-04 (3) 04-05 (4) 05-06 (3) 06-07 (3) 07-08 (4) 08-09 (4) 09-10 (5) 10-11 (4) 11-12 (4) 12-13 (2) 13-14 (2) 14-15 (2) 15-16 (3) 16-17 (3) 17-18 (3) 18-19 (3) 19-20 (2) 20-21 (2) 21-22 (3)
Gus O
Guest
My top 8 1) Easts (with fewer injuries) 2) Souths (if Mitchell and Walker can control their red mist and play footy) 3) Penrith panthers (Api, come back!) 4) Cronulla sharks (solid) 5) NQ cowboys (solid) 6) Melbourne storm 7) Parra (if their front row and Moses stay fit and healthy) 8) Brisbane broncos (if Reynolds and Walsh stay fit and healthy the Broncos could be top 5). Having lost half a rep squad over two seasons you’d think Melbourne could crash out, especially if Hughes or Harry Grant copped a major injury… but why would anyone bet against Bellamy? Extraordinary. Canberra should be in the hunt for the 8 with a bit better luck with injuries. I would love Manly to make the 8 because it would mean Turbo stays healthy and we enjoy another season of extraordinary footy. I just don’t know that Manly have enough horsepower in their forward pack. Any other team is going to need to do something extraordinary. Is Foran the missing link? Is Jackson Hastings? Is Api? Does Canterbury have a halfback? I hope all these teams improve. I also hope the NRL provides more support to the Warriors to help get them back on track after years of covid disruptions.
Gus O
Guest
Good thinking Astro. But it’s not like the Broncos have an unfair draw, you have to beat teams ranked above you to advance. I don’t see the Broncos beating full strength Penrith, Rabbits or Roosters. But the Broncos draw sees them playing Canberra, Cows and the depleted Storm and Parra all twice. If the Broncos don’t win 4 of those 8 games they won’t deserve to make the finals. If the Broncos spine avoids injury they are a good chance for the top 8. Like other teams, unlikely if they get injuries to key players. Walsh adds attacking threat, Staggs is healthy, Carrigan is back, Haas is happy and they are settled on their best spine. Success is in their own hands.
Gus O
Guest
The value and quality of Kaufusi is so underestimated. He is 80 minutes of hard, competitive quality every week, and a regular in the Qld SOO and Australian team for years. Name an opposition back rower who has got over the top of him? Ever? A huge loss. Bennett clearly recognises his quality.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
I think he means that the Eels are on the wrong end of that trade. Even more so now that Harper has a knee injury.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
As long as we don't count hookers as forwards, Tom. Reed Mahoney was as big a loss for the Eels as Api Koroisau was for the Panthers. Both teams will be a shadow of their 2022 form without them. Speaking of Api, are Manly fans regretting letting him go?
Danno1
Roar Rookie
Doorey is a good get, as a Bulldogs fan l thought it was a mistake to let him go...think of him as 75% Reni Matua (at his best) and that's pretty good to me. You'll get way more out of him than Brown...but he's gotta stay healthy had a few niggles over the years
Hondo
Roar Rookie
Siebold got chewed up and spat out by the Broncos, elements of which wanted Kevvie as coach. He looked like a deer in the headlights in the weeks leading up to his dismissal as Broncos coach. I tend to agree with you about Barrett but i got the impression that there was a pro Desi faction at the club that wanted Barrett gone and let him know it.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
Manly’s oft referenced political turmoil is not greatly different to every other club. No doubt Hasler has been a victim of it this time but he did set that up himself somewhat by announcing his departure to the Dogs the week after a GF win in ‘11. Barrett wasn’t a victim of politics, he was the victim of an over inflated ego not matched by achievement. Siebold will be fine if the results are there.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
The Eels were nuts to let Papalii go.. their best forward by a mile
Tom G
Roar Rookie
I don’t think too many at Brooky are losing sleep over the swap
Tom G
Roar Rookie
Everything looks certain at this time of the year… as Mike Tyson famously said “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” … so many variables to be considered for seven out of eight certainties.
Hondo
Roar Rookie
I hope you are not including Isaiah Papali'i in that list as some people keep doing as he became a NZ international player at 20 while still playing for the Warriors. The Warriors i feel only let him go due to off field misdemeanors. Papali'i's role at Parramatta was not a simple role he was their main strike weapon running off Mitchell Moses. Now they only have Shaun Lane who is approaching 30 now. Isaiah Papali'i was the Eels best running forward with his speed step size and strength. Parramatta no longer has an edge forward of his quality other than Lane and also lost the only likely replacement for him in Niokure. I have seen each of the new backrowers before and not one of them have shown the abilities to date of Isaiah Papali'i let alone Niokure and each is already older than Isaiah Papali'i so its hard to see anyone making them as good as he was for the Eels.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Signing with the Tigers would make no sense unless he’s only interested in the money. He’s spent the last five years getting the Eels to a GF, why would he want basically hit the reset button on his premiership chances by going to the Tigers.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Because BA has history of getting the best out of relatively unknown players, particularly forwards. He gives them a simple role to do, not unlike his mentor Bellamy, and they flourish. Expect that to happen to Doorey, who was a highly touted junior anyway before injuries but, and also Momoisea & Hopgood.
Hondo
Roar Rookie
Not sure where they would get any real confidence from guys like Doorey Momoisea Rodwell Murchie and Greig going on their performances to date in the NRL, with them mostly playing in the NSW Cup. All of them were let go by their previous clubs before joining the Eels. Not saying they might not come good for the Eels but surely long odds of that happening now at their ages as all are now coming into in their mid 20's this year, unlike Mataele is still only about 20. After watching the Penrith trial, the only player of the younger brigade who actually impressed me was the backup hooker who replaced Hodgson after Hodgson threw the pass which was intercepted for a try to Penrith. Hadn't heard of him before, his name was Jayden Yates who seemed a lot more lively and dangerous from dummy half than Hodgson had been.
Hondo
Roar Rookie
Sorry i meant i think he will announce his signing soon with the Tigers not the Dogs.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
As I said this is a salary dump to create more 2024 cap space. We don’t need Harper, he probably won’t even play, but we save about 250k in payroll which we can bring forward from 2924 to create cap space to get Moses over the line. Mark O’Neill & BA wouldn’t be shopping Brown if they didn’t have confidence in Doorey, Momoisea, Mataele, Rodwell, Greig, et al. This is cap management