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Seven out of eight NRL finals spots look certain, but who will force their way into the equation?

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Roar Rookie
14th February, 2023
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NRL fans have been blessed with some tight fights for finals football over the past few seasons. Superior for and against elevated the Gold Coast Titans into eighth place on the ladder in 2021. Last season, four points separated seventh-placed South Sydney and tenth-placed St George Illawarra Dragons.

With trials underway and season 2023 lurking around the corner, it feels as though the fight for the final few top-eight spots will be tighter than perhaps ever before.

Truthfully, it’s incredibly hard to envision any of last season’s top seven – Penrith, North Queensland, Cronulla, Parramatta, Melbourne, the Roosters, and Souths – relinquishing their finals football positions.

Parramatta looks most at risk of falling behind the pack with Reed Mahoney and Isaiah Papali’i’s departures leaving major dents in Brad Arthur’s side. Josh Hodgson has arrived hoping to reignite the form which saw him guide Canberra to become title contenders, while Eels fans will be praying their coach can turn J’maine Hopgood, Jack Murchie, and Matt Doorey into forward stalwarts as he previously has with players like Papali’I and Ryan Matterson. Losing Tom Opacic and Marata Niukore’s also creates further headaches.

Josh Hodgson of the Raiders passes

(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)

As for the rest – Melbourne, well, they’re Melbourne, even with a decimated forward pack. The same can be said for Penrith. It’s hard to envision Ivan Cleary’s men missing the top four let alone finals altogether, though it remains to be seen if they can maintain their lofty standards without Api Koroisau, Viliame Kikau and assistant coaches Cameron Ciraldo and Andrew Webster who depart for tougher pastures.

Brandon Smith’s arrival strengthens the Roosters. Souths will remain in the mix. The Cowboys look poised to continue their rise, could they push for the title? And reigning Dally M winner, Nicho Hynes, should spearhead Cronulla’s maintenance of last year’s standards.

But glance around the league and you’ll spy numerous teams below last season’s top 7 who’ve immensely improved.

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Belmore has certainly been sparked by the arrival of Ciraldo. Ask any Bulldogs player, official, or fan, particularly Willie Mason, and they will explain the club’s atmosphere has shifted in the last three months. Kikau will team up again with Ciradlo along with Mahoney, Ryan Sutton, Andrew Davey, Fa’amanu Brown, Hayze Perham, Karl Olaupu, and Franklin Pele amongst others as the Bulldog’s new recruits for 2023.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - JULY 17: Viliame Kikau of the Panthers is tackled during the round 18 NRL match between the Wests Tigers and the Penrith Panthers at CommBank Stadium, on July 17, 2022, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Add them to the current crop of talent the club already boasts – Matt Burton, Josh Addo-Carr, Luke Thompson, Max King, Jacob Kiraz, and Tevita Pangai Junior. As well as the expected explosion of Paul Alamoti on the NRL scene and many have this cocktail of talent seeing the Dogs of War returning to September’s promised land for the first time since 2016.

In the nation’s capital, Ricky Stuart will, as always, have the Raiders up for the fight. A steely, dominant pack led by arguably the game’s best forward last season Joseph Tapine, along with Josh Papali’I, Elliot Whitehead, Corey Harawira-Naera, Emre Guler, and Hudson Young will keep the Raiders in the fight. Another pre-season for Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty will help cement their partnership, with Xavier Savage and the rest of Canberra’s back-five offering a perfect combination of flair and grit should see Ricky’s Raiders there or thereabouts come September.

Despite last year’s implosion, many expect Brisbane to fight for the top eight again this year. General Adam Reynolds is back for another season in the famous Broncos seven jersey. Reece Walsh returns, and Selwyn Cobbo has another pre-season under his belt and undoubtedly many more levels of performance to hit. Consistency will be Kotoni Staggs’ aim for the year. Brisbane also possesses a fine forward pack that should set the platform for a finals hunt.

Adam Reynolds of the Broncos runs the ball.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Tom Trbojevic’s return to fitness should please Manly fans. They need at least 20 games from the games great mercurial if they are any chance of fighting for a spot in the top eight, especially with a controversial new coach at the helm, rookie five-eighth, and potential hangover from last season’s tumultuous conclusion all providing serious headwinds to their campaign.

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Last season’s wooden spooners, the West Tigers, have the potential to cause an unlikely disruption to the establishment. Koroisau, Papali’I, David Klemmer, and John Bateman bolster a strong forward pack. The question remains, will their backline be able to capitalise on the platform the big men lay? If it all clicks into gear there is no reason why they can’t be in and around the eight at the end of the season.

Though it should be noted, this is the Tigers and anything, absolutely anything is possible.

As for the rest?

It remains to be seen whether Ben Hunt can again singlehandedly inspire the Dragons this season.

The jury remains out on the Warriors, despite some astute signings.

The Dolphins are unknown, even with an experienced pack and Wayne Bennett’s guidance.

The Kieran Foran-led Titans – can they once more unlock David Fifita?

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And will Jackson Hastings’ guiding touch be enough to help the Knights? And how will Kalyn Ponga manage his second move to five-eighth?

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As always with sport, and with rugby league, there remain few absolutes heading into the NRL season. For all they’d like, teams can appear superficially strong yet nothing is guaranteed, no result secured, until the selected 17 themselves cross the white line each week and achieve them.

Injury, form, contract disputes, off-field indiscretions, tumultuous boardroom dealings, player and coach distaste, delayed chemistry, backlash, and outcry from jersey scandals are just some of the variables which threaten the derailment of a teams season, and yet a sense of excitement can’t help but descend on us fans as we gawk from the edge of the exhibit at our idols in their pursuit of glory.

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