Breaking out: 17 NRL players poised to go to another level in 2023

A few weeks back, I wrote an article about the NRL’s ‘average’ players in 2022 based on my BEAST player rating system, a composite metric which uses all the publicly available statistics to assign each NRL player a score denoting their overall contribution compared to their peers.

As I mentioned at the time, while some folk use ‘average’ as a pejorative term, a proxy for poor or bad in many cases, becoming an average NRL player is quite an achievement. To illustrate, here are some players who were below average in 2022, because they were down on form, in a struggling team or both: Jake Trbojevic, Sam Walker, Tom Burgess and Kenny Bromwich.

But where a player was last season does not determine where they’ll finish this season, and today’s piece looks at players who could go to another level in 2023; from below average to average, average to something more, and so on. There are no particular criteria – it’s a mix of 2022 stats, my qualitative observations and projections about what sort of role players are likely to fill in 2023.

So, here’s a breakout candidate for each team, listed in order of final placing in the pre-season challenge. Did you know Manly won it? No, me neither. Remember, a score of 100 denotes a bang-average player in 2022.

Manly: Jason Saab (93.9)

Yes, really. Saab’s numbers were almost identical to Xavier Coates in 2022 and it seems unlikely Anthony Siebold doesn’t realise Saab’s potential with the ball in hand.

While he’s not projected to start the season for Manly, it won’t take much for Saab to be promoted, especially if rumours of Reuben Garrick’s switch to the centres are accurate. Moving Saab to the left wing outside Garrick would make sense, as would a move to Melbourne or the Roosters who could both use reinforcements out wide.

Cronulla: Teig Wilton (92.1)

Wilton’s importance to Cronulla has grown at roughly the same rate as Wade Graham’s has diminished, and it’s hard to imagine that he won’t start most games on the left edge.

Felise Kaufusi level (104.9) should be well within reach for a guy like Wilton in 2023. He just needs to keep doing what he’s doing, cut down on the mistakes and get a little better at link play with his halves and outside backs.

Gold Coast: Jayden Campbell (122.5)

A miserable afternoon at Magic Round and the Dragons’ defeat to the Titans was my first glimpse of Jayden Campbell in the flesh, and wow can he play! An experience like that can distort one’s perception, just as looking at stats months after the fact can lead to unrealistic projections, but projecting is what this exercise is all about, so here goes.

Campbell plays with the same sort of vertical aggression as Dylan Edwards. While his work rate and total attacking output are not at Edwards’ level (whose are?), his prorated numbers compare very favourably to the Penrith custodian.

Can Campbell maintain that sort of intensity over a full season? Well, we don’t know yet – he had two extended stints on the sideline in 2022 and there’ll always be a worry about his slender frame being mangled by behemoths in the defensive line – but if he can, he’ll play for Origin for Queensland and become one of the game’s elite players. If not this season, some time soon.

Brisbane: Reece Walsh (96.3)

There were times in 2022 when Walsh was the Warriors’ attack. There wasn’t much else going on and it led the young fullback to try a bit too hard.

Reece Walsh. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

The Broncos have much stronger middle forwards, wingers who’re significantly better at yardage from the backfield and a halfback with a good kicking game. All of which means Walsh should get better ball in better field position and move into the top seven or eight fullbacks in the NRL. Look out Kalyn Ponga and Clint Gutherson.

Penrith: Luke Garner (123.5)

Again, this is a guy who could move from the very good into the elite this season. Moving from the wooden spooners to the premiers certainly won’t hurt his cause. There’s no question about Garner’s quality, it’s his work rate that bothers me. You can make an unflattering comparison to David Fifita in this regard.

This is why the move to Penrith could take him to the next level. Penrith’s edge back rowers work harder than anybody – sometimes to their own statistical detriment – and if Garner’s not willing to work, Scott Sorenson or Zac Hosking will take his place.

Melbourne: Joe Chan (no rating)

Melbourne’s back row is a land of opportunity this season. I’m on record as a Trent Loiero fan, and anybody who’s seen Elie Katoa play knows what he might do in the right system. Josh King’s also still around and will do lots and lots of stuff, without making much impact.

Enter Joe Chan. Granted, it’s a big step up from Catalans to Melbourne, but this kid can play. Even making 10-12 appearances off the bench and doing what Loiero did last year – brief, high intensity stints on the edge or in the middle – would be a big step forward.

Parramatta: Jack Murchie (80.4)

Even by the standards of NRL forwards, Murchie’s a unit. Watching him play for the Warriors last season, I was given to wonder if he’s a bit too nice; a bit lacking in killer instinct.

Whatever, he’s at Parramatta now and if they maintain their tactical approach, Murchie will get some early ball and be expected to run hard onto it. Very hard. With Isaiah Papali’i gone and Shaun Lane injured, he’ll get the opportunity to do just that.

It’s possible to project Murchie doing the sort of job Nat Butcher and Scott Sorenson do for their clubs, but does he have it in him? I’m going to say yes. Look out for Murchie in 2023.

Souths: Tevita Tatola (97.4)

I must admit that I’ve never been a big Tatola fan, but he keeps on getting better, and as season 2023 dawns he’s on the brink of becoming one of the 15-20 best props in the NRL.

Continued incremental improvement from the likes of Tatola, Lachlan Ilias and Keaon Koloamatangi, along with Latrell Mitchell and Tom Burgess staying healthy, and this Rabbitohs team are genuine premiership threats.

Sydney Roosters: Nat Butcher (96.8)

I’m not sure what it is but I’ve loved Butcher from the moment I first saw him play, and the stats are catching up.

Even before the sad news about Angus Crichton’s health, I had Butcher penciled in as a mover. It’s just gone from a case of he will to a case of he must. I’m backing him to become an above average player in 2023, along with a fearless prediction: he’ll have a higher BEAST rating than the vastly overhyped Jeremiah Nanai at the end of the season.

Nat Butcher goes over for a try (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Wests: Asu Kepaoa (90.4)

If Kepaoa can get some game time this season – a big if considering the Tigers’ touching but misplaced belief in Brent Naden (67.6) – he could do something.

Numbers frequently lie, and my eye-test is frequently wrong, but I see upside here; based on the numbers, Herbie Farnworth (120) upside.

New Zealand Warriors: Marata Niukore (103.8)

I’d ignore that number in brackets, because Niukore was all over the place in 2022, a testament to his versatility and quality, I guess. Late in the season, he was commonly found as placeholder for Ryan Matterson in the middle, but it looks like the Warriors will use him on the edge.

As an edge back rower in 2022, I’d put him in the Raymond Faitala-Mariner range – about average, just without the sample size to prove it. With a full season on the edge, and the sort of defensive work load you’d expect on a struggling team, I could see him move into the Hudson Young (115) range in 2023.

Canterbury: Hayze Perham (70.4)

The long-touted Perham will finally get his chance at fullback in 2023, a position he’s experienced in from the lower grades. Cameron Ciraldo’s talking him up and I’m fascinated to see how he does.

Perham’s 2022 was a mere 412 minutes, mostly on Parramatta’s wing. It probably doesn’t mean much but if it is anything to go by, he’ll be a more effective runner than Jake Averillo (81.1) and he’s been a ball-player in the lower grades. Watch this space.

Dolphins: Tesi Niu (123.9)

It’s been interesting reading the reaction to the Dolphins’ signing of Herbie Farnworth. A plurality, if not a majority, agreed it upgraded a weak position on the Dolphins’ roster.

I can see the logic – Euan Aitken’s the centre you have when you expect to upgrade and Valynce Te Whare might be something, or just a guy who went from reserve grader to fringe first grader when the league expanded.

Don’t forget about Tesi Niu, Dolphins fans. His 2022 season consisted of only 754 minutes. If he can come close to his 2022 performance over more than 1500 minutes in the centres, it would be a big step forward. I like his chances.

North Queensland: Jamayne Taunoa-Brown (89.1)

It’s easy to see why Todd Payten brought JTB with him from the Warriors to the Cowboys. The man tackles everything that moves and is the perfect fill-in for Jordan McLean and Reuben Cotter.

But can the Melbourne junior take it to another level? He’s 26 years old and coming into his prime and McLean’s not getting any younger, but there’s no shortage of competition at the Cowboys. If he doesn’t take it to another level in Townsville, he might end up doing so at the Knights, Dragons or Dolphins.

St George Illawarra: Josh Kerr (55.3)

I’m just not confident projecting improvements from any of the Dragons’ young spine players, and there’s nobody else in the squad with much upside, except for Josh Kerr.

I’m not privy to the Dragons’ thinking, but I’d wager that Kerr’s prolonged absence from first grade has something to do with his proclivity for offloading and not really challenging the defensive line. That’s an easy fix and, if Kerr does get some minutes as expected, he should jump well up the rankings. Or maybe not – who knows with the Dragons?

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Newcastle: Lachlan Miller (162.8)

Again, ignore that number. Miller’s 537 minutes in 2022 were either the greatest statistical outlier in the history of professional sport or an error. I’m inclined toward the latter explanation. Did he really bust 60 per cent of the tackles he ran into? It seems unlikely.

Even if he only matches Kalyn Ponga in terms of running and produces half of his output in terms of passing and facilitation, he’s a chance of being a top-10 fullback – somewhere in the 115-120 range over a full season. I’m pretty sure Knights fans would take that.

Canberra: Emre Guler (92.8)

The Raiders need somebody to replace Ryan Sutton and they have the perfect replacement in-house. I’m amazed Guler hasn’t been tempted away given how rarely Canberra’s used him lately – there are no shortage of clubs in need of quality middles.

If Guler plays 900-plus minutes – about what you’d expect from a regular prop – he could move into the top 30 in his position, the Corey Horsburgh and Jordan McLean range. If he keeps getting those minutes in future years, he’ll be even better.