AFL Oracle: These teams just missed the eight last year - can any of them go a step further in 2023?

It’s almost universally held to be true that the worst position you can finish on the ladder is ninth – you miss the finals by the barest of margins, and don’t even have a decent draft pick to offer any consolation.

Carlton couldn’t have fallen into the dreaded spot in more heartbreaking fashion last year. But having finished the first 22 rounds of 2022 inside the eight, they’re a hot tip to go one step further in Michael Voss’ second year at the helm, and end a near decade-long September drought.

The Blues aren’t the only team on the cusp of the eight looking to end a barren run, though: Gold Coast feel as if their time is now, and after steady improvement under Stuart Dew, will be looking to 2023 as a chance to make the finals for the first time in their history.

Ditto St Kilda, who have reached the last eight just once since Ross Lyon departed in acrimonious circumstances at the end of 2011. Now, he’s back, and keen to restore pride to a club that has far too often in their history been the AFL’s resident punching bag.

History says there is nearly always at least two changes to the eight year on year: from 2021 into 2022, there were three, with Fremantle, Collingwood and Richmond making their way in while Essendon, Port Adelaide and GWS fell out.

I’ve already tipped Adelaide as one of the new finalists – you can check out my predictions for last year’s 14-18 group here – so who else will be joining them in September in six months’ time?

Hawthorn

13^th, 8-14, 89.8%

Ins: Karl Amon (PA), Lloyd Meek (FRE), Cooper Stephens (GEE), Cam Mackenzie, Josh Weddle, Henry Hustwaite, Jack O’Sullivan, Bailey MacDonald (draft), Fergus Greene (delisted free agent), Josh Bennetts (cat. B rookie).

Outs: Jack Gunston (BL), Daniel Howe (NM), Tom Mitchell (COL), Jaeger O’Meara (FRE), Liam Shiels (NM), Ben McEvoy (ret.), Jackson Callow, Connor Downie, Kyle Hartigan, Tom Phillips, Jack Saunders (del.).

You can’t accuse Sam Mitchell of not being bold. Within 18 months of taking on the top job at the club where he won four premierships, he has gutted the list, replenished the squad with a plethora of young talent, and offloaded a bunch of his biggest names to other rivals.

All that has seen the Hawks become many pundits’ tips for the wooden spoon; but they were also among the frontrunners for that unwanted gong last year, and Mitchell’s coaching savvy, defensive structure and a handy draw helped the Hawks surprise a few people to finish 13th.

This year, though, the task gets even tougher: Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara, his two most experienced midfielders, are gone; also out the door is Jack Gunston’s 32 goals from 2022. With captain Ben McEvoy also hanging up the boots, and free agent Karl Amon the only notable addition who is a proven top-level contributor, a list that already looked very light this time last year now looks grimmer still.

In a few years’ time, when the likes of Josh Ward, Cam Mackenzie and Connor Macdonald have nearly 100 games under their belts, we may look upon the last two years of culls as a necessary sacrifice to get the Hawks back to the promised land.

At this stage, though, the Hawks have the most unproven list in the game, and it’s hard to see them doing anything but sink to the bottom this year.

If it helps, they’re on track to still be the best wooden spooner since Brisbane in 2017 – and look where the Lions are now.

Prediction: 18th

(Photo by Steve Bell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Gold Coast

12^th, 10-12, 102.8%

Ins: Jed Anderson (NM), Tom Berry (BL), Connor Blakely (FRE), Ben Long (STK), Jake Stein (GCS), Bailey Humphrey (draft), Jake Stein (rookie draft), Lloyd Johnston (cat. B rookie), Brodie McLaughlin (pre-season supp.).

Outs: Jack Bowes (GEE), Josh Corbett (FRE), Oleg Markov (COL), Izak Rankine (ADEL), Rory Thompson (ret.), Matt Conroy, Jez McLennan, Patrick Murtagh, Rhys Nicholls (del.).

It’s a very, very low bar, but you could make a good argument 2022 was Gold Coast’s best season yet.

Defying pre-season doomsayers (myself included), the Suns recovered from the loss of spearhead Ben King to finish with their equal-best win tally of 10 – alongside 2012 – and ladder position of 12th, while also recording far and away their highest ever percentage, which quite often is a precursor to success.

That, plus a core of young guns improving year on year, from Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson in midfield to Charlie Ballard in defence, has got the Suns well and truly on the verge of a maiden finals appearance. It’s surely safe to say most neutral fans in the competition wouldn’t mind seeing them not blow the joint up and collapse into disarray now like the last time they were in this position nearly 10 years ago. (Richmond fans, naturally, are exempted.)

I’ve been more pessimistic on the Suns than most for quite a while now – I had them winning the spoon last year after King went down – but there’s no denying Dew has instilled a strong culture that has slowly but surely stemmed the bleeding of their best talent to other clubs (if only he could fix the club’s extreme cap mismanagement too, to avoid more Jack Bowes salary dump situations in the future), and ushered in a strong defensive gameplan that has made the Suns difficult to score against in recent seasons.

King’s return is a major shot in the arm, and if they can turn Metricon Stadium into a stronghold after going 5-4 there last year, the Suns could very easily bank enough wins to book a maiden finals berth.

I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see them there, but there are just too many other teams vying for those eight spots to put them there – plus I’ve learned the hard way that with the Suns, it’s always best to underestimate them rather than have them raise your hopes and dash them expertly like Bender with that crippled robot in Futurama.

Prediction: 10th

(Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Port Adelaide

11^th, 10-12, 110.3%

Ins: Francis Evans (GEE), Jason Horne-Francis (NM), Junior Rioli (WCE), Tom McCallum, Thomas Scully, Kyle Marshall (draft), Nathan Barkla (cat. B rookie).

Outs: Karl Amon (HAW), Robbie Gray, Steven Motlop (ret.), Martin Frederick, Sam Mayes, Taj Schofield, Sam Skinner (del.).

There’s usually a team every that surprises everyone with a precipitous drop; in 2022, that team was Port Adelaide.

After finishing first and second in 2020 and 2021 only to lose preliminary finals, a 0-5 start, a costly injury run and a number of other factors ripped the Power’s season to shreds, with their strong percentage and ladder position of 11th mostly down to them bullying some of the league’s weaker sides.

Five of their wins were by 55 points or higher, but they went 2-9 in matches against the eventual finalists; and with six of those losses coming by 15 points or less, it’s fair to say their previously excellent record in close matches flipped against them in brutal fashion.

There is no team in the AFL more polarising than Port when it comes to predicting their ladder position this year; I’ve seen some people back them to surge back into the top four on the back of new recruits Junior Rioli and Jason Horne-Francis, plus natural progression from the likes of Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Todd Marshall.

On the other hand, there are plenty who can’t spy enough improvement from the Power in 2023 to back them to break back into a very strong-looking top eight already – and I’m one of them.

Once again, Port have a supremely tough start to the year, facing four finalists in the first five rounds plus a Showdown, where history proves anything can happen regardless of ladder position. A 0-5, 1-4 or even 2-3 start would heap pressure on the already under-fire Ken Hinkley, plus leave the Power with some urgent catching up to do.

On top of that, their draw isn’t great – four of their six double-up opponents made finals last year in Geelong, Richmond, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs. They also need to play six of 2022’s top eight, plus Carlton, interstate, a difficult task even if they can revert to their 2021 best.

If the Power can push their way past all this and back into the finals, they’ll definitely have earned it – but if this is to be Hinkley’s defining year, then he’s got the cards stacked against him.

Prediction: 12th

(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

St Kilda

10^th, 11-11, 99.3%

Ins: Zaine Cordy (WB), Liam Stocker (CAR), Mattaes Phillipou, James van Es, Olli Hotton, Isaac Keeler (draft), Angus McLennan (cat. B rookie), Anthony Caminiti (pre-season supp.).

Outs: Darragh Joyce (BL), Ben Long (GCS), Jarryn Geary, Dan Hannebery, Dean Kent, Paddy Ryder (ret.), Jarrod Lienert (del.).

Here’s something you might have forgotten: St Kilda are still the last team to have beaten Geelong for premiership points.

Things got very rocky for the Saints in the second half of 2022. From sitting pretty in fourth with an 8-3 record, injuries bit, their form went off a cliff, and they missed the finals for the second consecutive year and 10th time in the last 11. Brett Ratten was always going to be in the hot seat after that – but even so, the ruthless manner of his axing came as a shock.

So, as you do after things don’t work out with your spouse, the Saints hit up an old flame and decided to hitch their wagon to them once again. G’day, Ross Lyon. It’s been quite a while.

For better or for worse, the Saints are going to be a fascinating watch in 2023. Lyon’s two previous stints as coach, at both the Saints and then Fremantle, came in taking charge of talented lists needing the right spark to turn them from good to great, which he provided with abundance.

This time is different: the Saints have star power – Jack Steele is one of the game’s best inside-outside midfielders, Rowan Marshall is ready to take on full-time ruck responsibilities, and Max King is Max King – but it’s hardly a list chock-full of guns like the Saints of ’07 or Freo of ’12. There’s no Nick Riewoldt, or Matthew Pavlich, or Nat Fyfe, or even a Luke McPharlin.

Lyon surely deserves a grace period to straighten the Saints out, especially given the injury woes that have already hit – no King and possibly no Tim Membrey in attack has already forced a makeshift forward line to be rolled out for the pre-season. He might need it, too: for all the talk this off-season about not settling for mediocrity, it might do everyone at Moorabbin good to exercise some patience for the next 12 months.

There will be bright spots for the Saints in 2023, and the odd shock win to give supporters a taste of things to come under Lyon once more, but there are just too many holes in the list and too many unknowns around Lyon to tip them to improve with any great confidence.

Prediction: 13th

Saints coach Ross Lyon talks with Stephen Milne during a St Kilda training session in 2009. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Carlton

9^th, 12-10, 108.3%

Ins: Blake Acres (FRE), Oliver Hollands, Lachie Cowan, Jaxon Binns, Harry Lemmey (draft), Alex Cincotta, Hudson O’Keeffe (pre-season supp.).

Outs: Will Setterfield (ESS), Liam Stocker (STK), Will Hayes, Oscar McDonald, Jack Newnes, Luke Parks, Tom Williamson (del.).

Us Victorian footy fans have long dreaded the thought of Carlton getting good again.

It has been a long time since we’ve had to face the concept of passionate Blues fans pouring out of the woodwork to take over Melbourne; we got the first hints of it returning last year as they surged dramatically in the first half of the season to all but ensure a return to finals.

Then, things got pear-shaped; and for all the laughter and joy we took out of the way the Blues missed finals, it was laced with pure relief that judgement had been postponed for another 12 months.

I’m not sure we’ll be able to say the same thing in 2023.

(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Put simply, the Blues’ time is now. They’re led by the reigning Brownlow Medallist in Patrick Cripps, who spearheads one of the most brutal and deep midfields in the game, a midfield whose depletion due to injury late in the season cost them dearly. In defence, Jacob Weitering is a rock around which a dynamic unit sets itself, with Sam Docherty’s poise, Adam Saad’s electricity and Lewis Young’s intercepting all crucial cogs.

Then there’s the forward line: Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow bagged 109 goals between them last year, despite McKay missing three games and hampered for a few more with a knee injury. They’ve won the last two Coleman Medals, and should only be getting better from year.

Having acquired Blake Acres from Fremantle for a song to bolster their outside run, the Blues hardly lack for anything anymore. That it took two heartbreaking losses to eventual top-four sides in the finals, with everything going wrong for them on the injury front, to knock them out of September last year says plenty about their quality.

You’ve almost got to tip the Blues to cross the threshold and make the eight next year – if at least two new teams see September action every season, Carlton are without a doubt the obvious pick. The only question is: how high can they go?

The Blues’ best footy is definitely top-four worthy, but I’m a little more pragmatic – of last year’s top four, Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane have all arguably gotten stronger through the trade and free agency period, as have finalists Richmond and (I’d argue) the Western Bulldogs. This might be a hard top four to break into, especially for a group still working out just how good it can be.

One thing’s for sure, though: if the Blues do see September action, and I’d be shocked if they missed out, NO ONE is going to want to play them in week one of the finals. Especially if you have to do it at an MCG painted navy.

Prediction: 6th