Expansion dilutes talent in professional sports leagues. Always. And rapid expansion in rugby league drains the pool so that players who were not considered up to scratch are suddenly good enough for the NRL again.
It happened in the 1990s when the premiership hastily went from 16 teams to 20 and history is about to repeat to a certain extent with the 17th franchise set to be joined by another one in a couple of years and two more soon after that.
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” wrote George Santayana in 1905, a Spanish philosopher and Harvard graduate who there is little to suggest knew anything about rugby league but he couldn’t have been more spot on.
Players circa 1993-94 who would regularly wear jerseys 14-26 (that’s reserve grade for the uninitiated or too young to remember) in the old Big League magazine then became regular starters in the new ARL competition when the NSWRL made the mistake of adding four teams instead of its original plan of one of two in 1995. (Magazines were made of paper and people used to read them, if any further explanation is required there).
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Nearly three decades on and the Dolphins have supposedly been locked in as an unqualified success because they upset the Roosters and Raiders in their first two games. So of course that proves that there’s enough talent to go round and the NRL should add more and more sides.
Felise Kaufusi takes on the defence in the Dolphins’ win over Canberra. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
By that logic, if they had lost their opening games, would expansion have then been put on the backburner for another few years?
If the Dolphins now go on a losing streak and finish down the bottom of the ladder, as most experts and every bookmaker predicted in the pre-season, will the ARL Commission head honchos then determine that the talent pool is not deep enough?
Of course they won’t.
It’s great that the Dolphins have defied the odds and grizzly old coach Wayne Bennett has conjured up a couple of upset wins with his roster of veterans, cast-offs and rising stars.
Whether they can sustain a spot away from the bottom of the ladder with a lack of depth when injuries inevitably hit is another question that remains to be seen.
The Dolphins, or any of the bids that tried to get in for 2023, were always going to draw a decent following among the fans of South-East Queensland.
Another team in the greater Brisbane area should have happened decades ago. The poor old Crushers were kicked out when the ARL and Super League formed the NRL 25 years ago even though they had money in the bank – a rarity for any club in most eras.
The NewsCorp-owned Broncos wanted a monopoly in the Queensland capital and as part of the peace deal between the warring parties – the ARL and NewsCorp (no conflict of interest there), the Crushers and eventually Gold Coast Chargers disappeared into thin air.
Brisbane then enjoyed nigh on a decade where their closest geographical rival was Newcastle before the Titans re-emerged on the Gold Coast to play the role of downtrodden little brother.
This is, after all, Australia’s third-biggest city which now has a population of 2.3 million and one that lives and breathes rugby league more so than any in the land.
The ruthless but not ruthless enough culling of teams in the Sydney area at the turn of the century turned 12 traditional teams into nine with only North Sydney vanishing altogether after their failed joint venture with Manly.
With expansion back on the table, the Bears are yet again mounting a desperate bid to get back in the big league in some way shape or form, hoping to attach their colours, mascot and a couple of games at North Sydney Oval each year to one of the prospective expansion destinations.
And who could have predicted that China’s supposed threat to making incursions into the South Pacific could have helped the NRL widen its footprint?
Western Reds captain Brad Mackay with the foundation team in 1995. (Getty Images)
Back in the Super League war, the world’s most populous country was supposedly going to be a new market for the rebel competition when its chief executive John Ribot infamously claimed Allan Langer and Gorden Tallis would become household names in China.
Now the Australian government is keen for the gospel of rugby league to be used in the Pacific with a franchise based in Cairns representing Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga and Fiji, playing occasional games in the islands.
That team could be up and running as early as 2025.
It’s one of those very rugby league concepts that sounds good in theory but will be extremely difficult to pull off.
Like the Dolphins, there’s a massive fan base ready and waiting – the PNG population alone of 9 million where rugby league is the national sport is nearly double that of New Zealand although Australia’s closest neighbour to the north is still very much a developing nation despite a recent influx of foreign investment.
The problem for the Dolphins, a Pasifika team in Cairns and any other expansion sides on the horizon is attracting talent.
Last year the Dolphins were knocked back time and time again by high-profile free agents with player managers using them as a leverage point to get a better deal at their existing club or elsewhere.
Former international Kerrod Walters is tackled while playing for the Adelaide Rams in 1997. (Photo: Getty Images)
There are few marquee names on the market for 2024 let alone the following year as representative stars get squirreled away long term by their existing clubs – Brisbane forward Patrick Carrigan (until 2028 no less) and Kangaroos captain James Tedesco (adding 2025 onto his Roosters tenure) are two such examples in the past few days alone.
Expansion clubs should get a helping hand from head office. With no draft in place like the AFL’s set-up, the NRL could give start-ups an inflated salary cap compared to existing clubs or a franchise player option where one star’s wages don’t count on the books for the first few years.
If and when the 18th franchise gets off the ground, there needs to be at least a couple of years if not more before two more are added and if they’re not located in Perth and Adelaide then the ARL Commission might as well admit they’ve given up on the NRL ever being a truly national rugby league.
It was a mistake to abandon the potential in those markets after just a few years in the late 1990s, sacrificed by administrators with vested interests in poorly run Sydney clubs.
AdamB
Roar Rookie
Just playing catch up on all of this, A lot of Kiwis dont support the Warriors, and there is great interest in other teams and ofcourse State of Origin. Always found it so funny that a kiwi can bleed blue or maroon because of a 3 month OE in one of the states. An example, Manly still has a very large supporter base in NZ from the past generation who followed league pre warriors with the Lowe and Ridge era. Melbourne Storm seem to have the good base now too, again for reasons such as the amount of kiwis living in Melbourne, success on the field, And kiwis playing for the team, a history going back to Tawera Nikau and Stephen Kearney. Does this warrant another team?, I’m not sure, Wellington and Christchurch get their odd warriors games but they don’t hit capacity. Is this due to Christchurch’s stadium dilemma of being off the beaten track, the bad luck Wellington has with the weather or that the rest of NZ doesn’t really associate with the Warriors. They are an Auckland team, they changed their colours and jersey back to the nostalgic original look but to the rest of the Country, especially Christchurch, they are Auckland colours. It would be interesting to see how a team would go in Christchurch once the new 30,000 person stadium is built the heart of the CBD. The city is great and developing nicely, but would it attract players?. For a 20 team competition, I would add the existing historic teams in the mix Bears - central coast, nth Sydney based Ispwich/Brisbane Jets Apart from a lot of the obvious reasons already discussed, I believe that it should be a criteria that if you are to want to enter the NRL your club/franchise has to do it’s time and development in either of the second grade state competitions. These teams have been doing that, very same way the base of the Dolphins did and are still doing now in Redcliffe Don’t give Perth the Bears, if they are wanting a team then get a team playing in the NSW cup now and they can experiment with logistics of what it’s like having a Perth team in an eastern state competition. If NZ want a second team, they too should follow suit. Build the franchise that way, even be a feeder for the Warriors. Under this criteria, PNG Hunters too would be in for an opportunity when there is a 20th team ready to be added to the competition. An additional Pasifika team is just a terrible idea. The NRL are better off having Pacific round and moving games to the Islands, but with no actual hometown identity it would go down the path of Super Rugby. Which in my eyes will be an eventual fail with Moana Pasifika. Speaking of hometown identity. Before expansion begins, and bringing in the Central Coast team can we please shift Wests Tigers out to Campbelltown - I am a tigers fan, I was a Balmain fan but this team is currently a mess with identity issues, imagine playing a team in Perth and a recently converted AFL fan being explained what exactly does Wests mean. The fact that Bulldogs country is in between both Magpies and Tigers catchments doesn’t make sense. Free up the inner west, and either send them out to Campbelltown or let the Magpies return and the Balmain Tigers can resurrect in the NSW Cup (Ofcourse waiting in line behind the bears) Same can be said for The Dragons. Keep the history, but just move permanently down to Illawarra. Again, Sutherland is in between their catchments, from an outsider this just looks messy. That’ll free up more of your Sydney market (slightly)
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
Okay, I'll bite ... Last time I checked, only Warriors games can be broadcast in full in NZ, Riddler. NRL games on NZ TV rate about par with netball and lags fishing. NZ Rugby is not bound by a class ethos and most importantly ... NRL is an Australian competition. Why would Kiwis give a hoot about non-Warrior teams. Next thing you're going to say is that NZ is falling in love with AFL!
KiwiBear
Roar Rookie
Self interest the key phrase. Clubs that have a NRL license/franchise put their own interest ahead of the greater good which is why I thought the league Commission was created ??
woodart
Roar Rookie
forget the $$$. league is NOT producing its own future. no amount of poaching another sports players changes that fact.it means that the future of yr sport hinges on the health of another sport to keep yrs going. its a zero sum game.
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
Mate - you've effectively agreed with me. The Storm have 'created a foothold for rugby league in Victoria'. That's it. We agree it'll never ever by big and highly unlikely that it will ever get anywhere near AFL. And the 'satisfying a need' is essentially what I reflected upon regarding providing a nursery for the expat kids. Like the AFL in QLD years ago - without local talent pathways then a bunch of expat Vic/Tas kids like Akermanis, Voss and Riewoldt might never have found their way to the AFL. THAT is an important role for the 'niche' presence. I accept you don't like the AFL - - the irony of course is the NRL and Storm were products of Telstra/NewsCorp and at heart are the epitome of the corporate view of sports as a commodity. You may not like the AFL however the concept of the AFL plans for "dominating Australian sport" are right and wrong. The AFL - like the NRL - are massively limited by NOT being Olympic sports and as much as you might talk up international NRL........seriously - - the SofO is the pinnacle. We know this. So both AFL and NRL have to find a way. And they both are battling against the current of the international sports.............and if only RL and RU could merge then they'd have a much better 'foothold' in Melbourne.
Riddler
Guest
You just made my point, the NRL can poach young Rugby players because it is sustainable. The current broadcast deal "The five-year agreement is also a record television and media rights deal for the game, with Nine, Fox Sports and Sky NZ paying more than $2 billion to broadcast the Telstra Premiership, Telstra NRLW Premiership and Ampol State of Origin until 2027." Dwarfs anything NZ Rugby can obtain, which means NRL can easily keep poaching NZ Rugby juniors, Pacific Island Rugby Juniors etc until Rugby in the Southern Hemisphere is consigned to a very small players market.
Nat
Roar Guru
And what local support does a transplanted Bears have? You are not seriously going to make a crowd and support comparison to a 160yo AFL club and the known crowds that support that code by attendance? All NRL clubs only dream of that kind of active participation. How about a fairer comparison of a 90yo club with dismal success, no crowds and went broke in their own backyard? Why are they going to have any more success 100km up the road? Yes, they should ignore this backyard because it already has 10 kids playing in it and adding another brings nothing more than nostalgia.
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
Could be right. Never bet against self-interest!
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
“ Have you forgotten that the Warriors were based there for 12 months in 2021?” You mean a team from a different country with next to no local support during a pandemic with social distancing regulations around? Now who’s cherry picking…in fact, if anything you’ve just undermined your own argument. If the Warriors can still pull those numbers under those conditions it bodes EXTREMELY well for a genuinely local club like the Bears. Population of the Central Coast is over 300k. Compare it to Geelong, a similar distance from Melbourne with a population of around 200k. The difference is the AFL hasn’t been dumb enough to ignore its own backyard.
woodart
Roar Rookie
if nrl is so sustainable, why are 1/5 of the players poached young rugby players from NZ?if a sport is relying on another sport from another country for so many of its players, thats NOT sustainable. fun fact nzrugby gets less players from P.I. countries than nrl gets from nz rugby.
Dionysus
Guest
Absolute rubbish The Storm have pretty decent gates at every home match and have one of the highest memberships in the competition. Myself and many other Storm fans follow then avidly. Add to that the fact that I cannot stand any aspect of AFL and wouldn't watch it if you paid me. The point is that the Storm have created a foothold for rugby league in Victoria. It will never ever be big, it is highly unlikely that it will ever get anywhere near AFL but it is a foothold and should be an important one that is satisfying a need. Would it be better if they had their own local juniors ?, of course it would but that does not undermine their importance in the slightest. The AFL has developed strategic plans for dominating Australian sport and has had them for decades. They are very well managed, strategic and well funded. They are doing that because they have too because they know that they will never expand outside of this country and they know that the NRL have all the strategic nous of a two year old.
Riddler
Guest
Woodart, Rugby is on the decline in Fiji, walk the streets of Suva and the kids are wearing NRL jerseys/shirts. Super Rugby doesn't resonate with the young as much as the NRL now does. The decline of International Rugby in Fiji, Samoa and Tonga (courtesy of the poaching, particularly NZ) has weakened the hold the sport once had. Super Rugby Comp is already a cooked turkey, results seemingly don’t matter. Not when eight out of 12 teams make the playoffs. Not when you can lose nearly all your games and the last three games of the season determines final positions. There is no playoff race and nothing to talk about other than who might make the All Blacks or Wallabies. Whereas, the NRL is full of intriguing stories and rivalries that matter. No one in the wider Australian sporting landscape really cares who wins between Rebels and Brumbies but Souths vs Roosters can still elicit a response from someone in Victoria. It's very much like the cultural change in Jamica happening now with the young invested in the NBA and the older parent/grandparent generation still clinging to Cricket. NRL is the future and Super Rugby is the past. I don't expect the Super Rugby competition in it's current form to last much longer and I actually like Rugby. But as I always say, Rugby is a 19th Century game trying to compete and entertain in the 21st Century. It's failure to resolve the original Union/League split has left the game boxed in with archaic rules that even the hardest core Rugby fan has trouble understanding or interpreting. It's different in Europe as there is less competition domestically and the history and tradition overrides the quality of play, even though the current 6 nations tournament has been one of the best in recent years for quality rugby play. In Australia it's vastly different and even a World Cup win won't necessarily be the silver bullet to resurrect the game as many Rugby fans hope.
Dionysus
Guest
Jimmy, I would love you to come down here for a year and experience how absolutely impossible it is to get any 7 year old to play Rugby League Problem No. 1 Find a Rugby League ball in the shops (best answer buy one off the internet) Problem No. 2 Find a pitch that isn't round and doesn't have 4 posts at each end Problem no 3 Find some kids to play with your kid (answer you won't) Problem no. 4 Find a school that doesn't teach AFL or that teaches Rugby as anything other than an awareness exercise (I am still looking) Problem no. 5 Peer Pressure - all the kids that your son knows talk none stop AFL, all the hype in the town is AFL, by the way did you know that footies starts this week because that is all that has been on tv. Take your head out of your New South Wales sand for a moment and realise that what the Storm are doing is carving out a chink, providing something for those that think AFL should have a w and a u in the word and are a fantastic player development organisation. Victoria will never be an NSW or a QLD but the Storm have stopped the rot.
Heyou
Roar Rookie
Absolutely. I draw a comparison with the NRLW expansion which has happened way too fast and will run into trouble due to the almost non- expansion of pathways competitions from which to draw players. The grass roots competitions are very slowly gaining enough teams to run group comps but nothing close to what is necessary for a heathy elite competition. I’m watching the poaching going on around the traps. I believe the quality players will be spread very thinly across the comps and money will talk louder than loyalty to a jersey and club. Nothing too unusual there I suppose. I worry but it’s probably unnecessary And wth?! What is with these tiny adds popping up all over the place again? It’s making logging in a bit frustrating for this visually impaired, somewhat demented old fool. :angry: :boxing: :thumbdown: and my twisted too fat fingers can’t tap the tiny cross box to get rid of them - I hit the other box and get all sorts of adds with frocks and cosies and investment opportunities .. ??? Weird lol
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Fair enough, I know jack shite about the AFL and went on pub hearsay. I lived across the road from metricon stadium for over 10 years and never set foot in the joint. But I still think of Souths loosing the franchise, then fighting back and now a top 4 team If Balmain had to fight for it instead of selling their soul to Wests where would they be now ?
Nat
Roar Guru
When I say no identity I mean like Wyong or Gosford are no where near big enough to enter the comp and piggybacking a defunct NRL will not be the answer. Speaking of history, someone is living in it. The last time Souths played Storm there was 2019. Have you forgotten that the Warriors were based there for 12 months in 2021? That season they topped out at 8k but maintained under 5k so let’s not cherry pick one game one time. My point is there is nothing to be gained by having another team so close to Sydney and a small population spread over a large distance won’t attract new fans or more eyeballs.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
The Bears are in the past, if they reappear it will be in a new market. Perhaps Adelaide.
Nat
Roar Guru
Missed it’s chance? Doubt it, the process started years ago in league. The Kaiviti Silktails have been playing in the NSW comp since 2020. There was even a bid for NZ 2.O in the last expansion EOI. Previously NRL clubs have just poached players they thought had transferable skills (Korobiete, Radraddra & Vunivalu) or brought them over in their teens but if the NRL got serious SR could not keep up. The minimum NRL contract is now $120k but average $400k. Tell me how many Drua would stay for SR wages if that was offered?
KiwiBear
Roar Rookie
I suspect that all the other clubs use it as a recruitment centre so they don't want a permanent presence on the Coast.
KiwiBear
Roar Rookie
Yeah but what is NRL's average crowd you can hardly hold a new team to a higher standard than other clubs?