Why the Saints must finish in the bottom four in 2023

St Kilda must embrace sliding down the ladder if it wants to finally break the shackles of mediocrity.

It certainly seems like a tough season is approaching for them, with an injury list already sitting comfortably in double digits without a ball being bounced.

Best 22 members Max King, Tim Membrey, Jack Billings, Nick Coffield, Dan McKenzie and Zak Jones are projected to miss at least the first quarter of the season, while almost every other key forward prospect is ailed.

Think what you may of Ross Lyon but certainly, his return to the Saints offered immediate hope for a team constantly teetering on the edge of the top eight.

The cards that he has been dealt with ahead of the club’s first game has almost immediately eased all pressure and expectation for what Lyon can do this season.

More to the point though, this all has things trending towards the potential start of a new chapter and under the tutelage of a more patient Lyon, that initial boost of hope that was felt can be a long-term prospect.

The return on investments in St Kilda’s drafting through the 2010s was nothing short of horrific. Sure, hindsight makes us all smarter, but draft aficionados never looked at a St Kilda draft with excitement at the time, which may have been a strong sign.

Clearly, the biggest success stories have been Jack Sinclair, Rowan Marshall and Callum Wilkie, all of whom were taken in the rookie draft. Jack Billings and Jade Gresham have never quite realised their full potential due to injury, yet both have managed to play at least 100 games.

Max King is the franchise saviour in many ways and looked a good pick, while we’re still waiting to see what Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield are if they stay on the park. Seb Ross and Jimmy Webster have hung around since the 2011 draft, neither of them are players of genuine, September consequence though.

Max King of the Saints celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Josh Battle has found his feet, as has McKenzie in recent times, but look at the names drafted by St Kilda over the last decade or so and it’s littered with players on the periphery, at other clubs or simply not on any list, having only played a handful of games.

Of all the players, only King and Gresham at his peak feel truly game-changing – it’d be nice to include Marshall on the list, but coaches hesitancy to play him as the sole ruckman throughout his career makes it tough to do so.

Ultimately, it’s just a squad with capped potential. Jack Steele’s a star and Dougal Howard is a pretty good defender, but the absolute best this team could possibly have done in recent seasons is sneak into finals and probably lose in the first round – handcuffed by their own administration.

Yet 2023 offers a wonderful opportunity for Lyon to wipe the slate clean and capitalise on good drafting over the last couple of seasons, with a shift in focus. Can he squeeze absolutely everything out of this current squad and get them to finish just outside the eight? Absolutely he can.

Will he? If there’s one thing that we know about Lyon, it’s that he doesn’t accept mediocrity.

Ross Lyon addresses his St Kilda players. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The last two drafts have been really positive for the Saints. The 2021 crop was full of value and quite exciting. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is a smooth user and is the type of player that will be a lovely complementary piece to the midfield later in his career.

Mitch Owens will be seen as a medium, strong forward to start his career but he’s the inside midfielder with attention-grabbing upside. Marcus Windhager has game-changing speed as an offensive midfield threat. We’ll see what Oscar Adams becomes.

Owens and Windhager slid far more than anticipated and were cheap academy recruits. More importantly, they can make a difference.

It got better in the 2022 draft. Mattaes Phillipou could end up being one of the top three players from that crop and was worth the return-home risk. Olli Hotton at pick 35 can do amazing things and has x-factor in attack. Isaac Keeler at pick 44 was a steal and could be anything. James Van Es is the type that can be around for years.

Most importantly, we can come out of the last two drafts and identify multiple potential matchwinners, guys that can make a difference in finals.

Leaning on the experience of Head of Development and Learning Damian Carroll, and the successful careers of Corey Enright, Robert Harvey and Lenny Hayes, it feels like there’s a core group of leaders at the club that understand both the St Kilda ethos and the ways to be successful, a vital part of any rebuild.

Of course, things don’t always go smoothly and if there was a formulaic approach to success, everyone would be following it, although preventing the leaking of audio is probably a good place to start.

The way coaches handle playing groups has changed and whether Ross Lyon can find his own groove in mixing what he knows with what is effective in this day and age will have a big say on whether this actually works for St Kilda.

It’s easy for pride to be a factor if a coach believes it’s their way or the highway, but Damien Hardwick, Simon Goodwin, Chris Scott and John Longmire are perfect examples of long-tenured coaches adapting successfully.

Damien Hardwick has proven a master of adaptation. (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

But with the support staff at St Kilda, there’s excitement around the increasing number of quality young players and the developmental paths on offer that could bring the club success sooner rather than later.

It’s why, with the injury list the way it is, the kids must play and the results mustn’t matter. It’ll be a bitter pill to swallow, for fans particularly, given how long it has been since the Saints were contenders, or even relevant.

A single win from the opening seven fixtures is entirely possible – the Saints face Fremantle, the Bulldogs, Essendon, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Carlton and Port Adelaide, most of whom are pushing for the top eight.

At that point, there’d be no upside in trying to get the group pushing for finals, not when the last month of the season sees St Kilda face Carlton, Richmond, Geelong and Brisbane.

Again, there’s absolutely no pressure on Lyon to start the season that well and getting experience into young players without a mountain of expectation upon them is only a positive for all involved.

The 2023 draft has long been earmarked as one with elite talent at the top end and this so happens to be a season where St Kilda can easily work themselves into a top five or six pick without anyone batting an eyelid.

For the first time in over a decade, this is a group with more than a handful of young talents that project to be genuine difference-makers in big moments and it’s a squad that will only have one player above 30 come their first game on Sunday.

The term “short term pain for long term gain” comes to mind when thinking of St Kilda. They have finally started nailing their draft choices, there’s a strong developmental coaching core in place and with injuries galore, there’s no pressure or expectation.

A bottom four finish with this draft will help shape the future of the club. Ross Lyon and St Kilda simply must embrace the rare opportunity to slide down the ladder without consequence in 2023 to fast-track the team’s return to relevance in the future.