Reds in freefall, Brumbies have worse record but better team: 6 things that have changed through 6 rounds of SRP in 2023

With Round 7 of Super Rugby Pacific kicking off on Friday the 2023 season is about to reach its midway point.

Much has stayed the same so far when comparing this season with last. Despite no actual trans-Tasman tussles due to COVID-induced border closures through six rounds in 2022, the perception was that the Kiwis still had the upper hand over the Aussies. Nothing has changed in that regard. In head-to-head battles the Kiwi sides have a 10-1 edge so far over their Australian adversaries.

But there have been shifts within the two countries. Some teams have risen and others have fallen, while the two expansion teams – Moana Pasifika and the Fijian Drua – have also had differing fortunes thus far. There has also been changes within the games brought on by new law variations, including improvements to the pace of play, and the amount of points being scored.

Let’s start by delving into the changes among the teams. One of the most noticeable so far has been…

THE CHIEFS LOOK LIKE CHAMPS

At 6-0, the Chiefs have gotten off to their best start in franchise history. Not even the Dave Rennie-coached champions of 2012 or 2013 were undefeated through six games.

Their campaign got kick-started with an upset 31-10 away win over the Crusaders. They have not looked back since notching four straight double-digit victories before a gutsy 20-13 victory over the Blues last weekend.

Damian McKenzie’s return from Japan has given the side a huge boost. As has the return to form of stalwart Sam Cane who has been a part of a dominant forward pack that has created space and time for the likes of McKenzie and in-form winger Shaun Stevenson. The latter is averaging 80-plus running metres per game, and has already tallied seven tries to lead the comp.

As good as they have been in attack, the Chiefs have perhaps been even better in defence. They are currently the stingiest team in SRP having not yet yielded 100 points (98).

It’s too early to declare them the team to beat, but it looks like any other contenders will have to come through Hamilton later this year if they wish to be crowned champions.

THE REDS ARE IN FREEFALL

Last year the Reds started with five wins from their first six matches. They appeared to be on their way to hosting a quarter final, and perhaps going deep into the playoffs. That was until a streak of six defeats in their final seven games condemned them to an unflattering seventh-place finish.

Things haven’t fared much better for them in 2023. Queensland own a lacklustre 2-4 record through six games.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

They have their excuses, to be fair. Three-fifths of their projected starting tight-five have not played a minute of rugby this season. Taniela Tupou, Harry Hoopert and Luke Jones are all recovering from long-term injuries. Tupou (torn achilles) – arguably their most important player – is almost certainly lost for the entire season.

Without the breakdown and set-piece dominance of 12 months ago, the Reds have looked clunky to say the least. If they cannot turn those facets around soon it’s hard not to see more misery for them in the coming months.

THE CRUSADERS LOOK VULNERABLE

Last year’s record (4-1) versus this year’s (4-2) looks much of a muchness. But the Crusaders currently sit fourth on the table with three very good teams above them – Chiefs, Hurricanes and Brumbies.

In 2022, the Crusaders finished second on the table at the conclusion of the regular season. This rewarded them with two playoff games at home before they toppled the Blues in Auckland to claim their 11th title.

Finishing third, or worse, will, in all likelihood, require the Saders to play two finals games away from home, which is a tough ask for any team. Climbing into the top two is doable but it will require them to leapfrog at least two of the above-mentioned teams. Head-to-head fixtures against both the Canes and Chiefs later in the season gives them an opportunity to overtake these rivals; however, both matches will be played away from Christchurch.

In the meantime, their injury toll remains a concern. Head Coach Scott Robertson told the Stan Sport rugby panel last Friday that his team were without the services of 18 injured players.

They will get some back this week but their depth will continue to be tested as the season pushes into its second half. The Crusaders are a great team. But are they great enough to win it all again under their current circumstances?

THE BRUMBIES HAVE A WORSE RECORD BUT ARE A BETTER TEAM

The Brumbies were a perfect six from six this time a year ago. Even with one blemish next to their name in 2023 – an away defeat to the Crusaders – the Brums seem like a more complete team now under the auspices of Head Coach Stephen Larkham.

They have rejuvenated their roster with winger Corey Toole adding speed to burn, and Blake Schoop providing plenty of muscle in the front row. Fly-half Jack Debreczeni has also been a nice addition. His assist for the game-winning try against the Waratahs last Saturday looked very Larkham-esque.

The ACT side seem like a much more balanced side these days. At times last season they appeared reliant on the lineout drive for scoring their tries. In 2022, 16 of their five-pointers were scored by hookers, while 19 went to players in their back three. This year the ratio is 4:9. The maul threat is still there, but the Brumbies can hurt their opponents in many more ways now.

FIJIAN DRUA UP, MOANA PASIFIKA DOWN

This time last year the two fledgling franchises were mirroring each other with one win apiece. So far in 2023 their fortunes have gone in reverse with the Drua victorious three times through six games while Moana remain winless.

The Fijian side’s Round 3 victory over the reigning-champion Crusaders in Lautoka has arguably been the highlight of the season to this point. Additional wins over the Rebels and Moana have this team looking odds-on to make the playoffs.

Moana Pasifika could easily be in a better place. Their inability to close out games against the Drua and Western Force from winning positions has cost them.

It may be unfair to directly compare Moana with the Drua, anyway. The Fijians have played twice in their homelands in front of raucous crowds, while Moana will not get the chance to do the same until Round 8 when they host Queensland in Apia.

Moana have also had a much tougher draw. Their first six opponents have a combined winning percentage of 67, which is double that of The Drua’s (33%).

THE GAMES HAVE SPED UP

It is about darn time. Data released last week revealed that the average length of a SRP game in 2023 is 91 minutes and 46 seconds. That compares with 98 minutes in 2022. This means that more than six minutes of dead time has been erased from games this season.

New law variations (LVs) have been introduced this year, including time limits on kicks at goal, game re-starts, lineout throws and scrum feeds. Also, tinkering with the interventions of Television Match Officials has made them, generally, much less obtrusive.

Rugby has been allowing its games to be bogged down by repeated and lengthy stoppages for far too long. A fast game is a good game, as they say, and, at the end of the day, increases to the pace of play should equate to more bums on seats and eyes on screens watching rugby moving forward.

Another positive change is point-scoring increasing from 53 to 61 points per game. Fatigue – probably due to the impact of the LVs – seems to be contributing to this phenomenon, with players now having less time to recover during matches. Long may this last.