There were rumours that Brad Thorn wouldn’t make it past the bye week if the Reds lost in Samoa.
The victory, their third of the season, bought Thorn some more time – but only until the end of what has so far been a disappointing season. Although they currently sit in the play-off places, they are helped by having played eight matches. The Reds might come back and find themselves in 9th spot if results go against them. Does the victory against Moana Pasifika offer hope that Thorn can leave on something of a high, or did it just paper over the cracks?
In rugby, the result is king. Teams talk about process, but us fans, unaware of the specifics of what the process actually is, judge purely on wins and losses. The problem is that rugby is hugely influenced by luck. After just eight games, a team’s league position will be massively helped, or hindered, by lady luck.
A good way to look for luck is in close games. Games decided by three points or less are typically about a quarter of all matches in the league. However, there is no evidence that teams can continually excel in close games. Winning them is down to chance not skill.
It’s easy to write off teams early in a season for poor results, only to find that they were just on a rotten run of form. That’s not the case with the Reds though. They’ve only taken part in one close game, against Fijian Drua, and they won it. It looks like the Reds really are in a difficult spot, not just an unlucky one. What is causing it? I think the answer comes down to two things; the last 20 minutes and the scrum.
In Super Rugby this year, just over 25% of points are scored in the final quarter. The second quarter is marginally more productive with the first and third quarter lagging behind. That is consistent across leagues and cups the world over. Teams are fresher in the first and third quarter and tire at the end of each half. We wouldn’t be shocked to see a team concede more points in that fourth quarter, but we would be concerned if they didn’t also score more points in that period. If you’re a Reds fan, be concerned.
The Reds concede 78 points in the fourth quarter. That is the second highest total after Moana Pasifika. But they score just 39 points. That is third lowest total after Pasifika and Fijian Drua. They score just 16.4% of their points in the fourth quarter, the lowest percentage of any team in the league.
It is tempting to say that the Reds have a poor last 20 minutes because of their conditioning and just be done with it. But that’s too simplistic. Conditioning is the over-arching problem, but it must appear somewhere in the stats. You don’t lose just because your conditioning is poor. You lose because your conditioning is poor and that means you miss more tackles towards the end of the match, for example.
That’s not the case with the Reds though. They don’t suddenly start missing tackles as the clock ticks on. Instead, they concede turnovers. Against the Crusaders, nine of their 19 turnovers happened in the final quarter. It was four of ten against the Rebels. Seven of 19 against Moana Pasifika. The Reds just can’t keep hold of the ball in the final quarter.
That gives their opponents perfect attacking platforms to hurt them, but it also forces them to defend for longer, further putting pressure on their conditioning. Some of those turnovers come from tired play.
Notice how the Reds just can’t get to the back gate and in the right body positioning to hold onto possession here. At this stage of the game, this looks like a conditioning issue where the legs have gone and a ruck which might have resulted in slower possession earlier in the game, now leads to a turnover.
But there are plenty of examples where the error is mental. Missed kicks to touch or poor offload decision making. Those might be linked back to conditioning as well, but more typically they come when a team loses focus throughout the match.
I spoke with a member of the Namibia analysis staff during the 2019 World Cup, and they mentioned that getting the players to maintain focus for the entire match was the most challenging task. Against all that pressure and with all those decisions to make, players begin to switch off at the end. That is killing the Reds as they ship twice the number of points that they score in the final quarter.
The other factor is more basic. The Reds win just 69% of their scrums, they and Moana Pasifika are the two teams with a scrum success rate less than 80%. They have lost ten scrums, the joint highest total. They are also one of five teams to not win more than ten penalties on their own scrums, despite having the second highest total of their own scrums. The issue is clear, the Reds get milked for penalties on their opponent’s scrums and can’t use their own scrum to get the penalty. Whether we like it or not, a fundamental purpose of the modern scrum is to win a penalty. If you can’t do that, your ability to advance up the pitch is limited.
Brad Thorn is set to stand down as Queensland Reds coach following the 2023 season. Photo: Getty Images
A lot of rugby can be simplified down to a basic equation: you win if you have more 22 entries than your opponents. Penalties from scrums are a perfect way to take chunks of yardage and make it more likely to get into the opposition 22. If you can’t do that, and even worse, if you’re letting your opponent’s do that to you, then you are gifting them free opportunities. That’s a bit like a soccer team gifting their opponent’s free shots at goal.
Over the course of the game, that adds up. It’s more defending close to your line, it’s more effort to attack and cover the ground. It’s more energy that all adds up when it gets into the last 20 minutes. In many ways, the two biggest issues the Reds face are linked. If they can’t fix them their talented team might find ways to win matches, but they won’t go much further than that. That’s the job Brad Thorn has now before he packs up his desk.
Sam Larner
Expert
Thanks a lot Brett! I appreciate it.
Phil
Roar Rookie
Considering your criticism this is a bit simplistic. What if the talent is also ill disciplined?
carnivean
Roar Rookie
Honestly I think that if it was that easy then the experts that have worked with World Rugby over the last decade to get scrums to where they are would have mentioned it. Then if they had and World Rugby had ignored them, they'd have mentioned it to journalists.
Kai Levuka
Roar Rookie
When I’m gardening I start off strong but after I while when I get tired I start to stumble, cut my hands with the secateurs, scrape my knees, my back seizes up etc etc. Now I could work on my fitness and technique but thought it’s easier to get one of those nana pads to kneel on. I hate myself for taking the easy way out …
Kai Levuka
Roar Rookie
Agree. Aussies are falling down in the technical aspects. Catching, passing off both hands, passing in front of the man, putting your winger into space etc etc. This is on coaching at the grassroots. No player, no matter how good they are, should be in the centres unless they can pass off both hands (I’m looking at you Izzy Perese). Compare this to the Chiefs/Hurricanes game last week which was a joy to watch. Fast hands along the backline with players running onto the ball at pace. Also the Drua centres are also good at passing off both hands.
Passit2me
Roar Rookie
“it’s clear that Nick has been involved in conversations about scrums and how they are conducted at a higher level of competition than you”. So clear that Nick didn’t know it was illegal to bore in on the Hooker. Yep, got that. Don’t get me wrong, Nick is a wonderful analyst and I greatly admire his skill in what he does, but he was wrong on that point. ” On the flip side it’s also clear that the elite level of the game has some clear differences to amateur levels” Yes I know and this is precisely my point. The amateur level scrums fulfil their purpose. Elite level scrums often just lead to more penalties in an already over penalised game. Do you not find something annoying about this? If there was a rule that props must pop their shoulders, the binds would be much tighter and it would be very difficult to bore in on the Hooker. If props unpopped their shoulder after the “Set” and started boring in, then blow the whistle, they will soon stop doing it. Yes, professional athletes will still find ways to push the boundaries to gain an advantage, but the scope to do so would now be much more limited. We can be fatalistic about scrums and just keep watching them set, collapse, re-set, penalty, because that’s just so much fun, woopty doo. Or they can do something about it to improve the game and help the fans enjoy it more. What do you think?
carnivean
Roar Rookie
The referees are already under direction to get the ball in and out. It's the coaches and players that are trying to work against what the spectators mostly want. Teams under pressure already want to get it in and out as that reduces the amount of time for the opposition to punish them. However if you have a choice to play silly buggers on the engagement and avoid it all together then of course that's tempting. Espeically when the other side is going to play silly buggers most of the time too.
carnivean
Roar Rookie
Thanks mate. I appreciate the kind words.
Passit2me
Roar Rookie
No worries Rolando. They stopped policing scrum structure, and now we have a whistle fest.
carnivean
Roar Rookie
It's clear that you have good experience and understand how scrummaging was done when you were playing. On the flip side it's also clear that the elite level of the game has some clear differences to amateur levels. While I appreciate your perspective it's clear that Nick has been involved in conversations about scrums and how they are conducted at a higher level of competition than you. Does that make what you said wrong? No. But I think that there's some elements of the discussion that neither you nor I are fully privvy to.
carnivean
Roar Rookie
Yeah there's a series of factors at the amateur level that really add up to a different experience. My point about the refereeing is more that even if a team decides to try for scrum penalties they might find that the referee doesn't reward them for it consistently, therefore there's no incentive to even try. As you note they get better rewards for channeling quick ball.
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Really a set of locks or one very very good one is missing Smith would grow exponentially with a international tested partner ...uncle fester looks good the two young props last week I was impressed ran hard tackled hard stayed up in scrum ..flyhalfs woeful Paisami badly missed Flook next big thing and Petaia and golden boy on wings...maybe I should put hand up for coach job.
Rolando
Roar Rookie
Very grateful for this insight P2M. Great stuff! There must be other roarers like me who have never played in the forwards and can’t quite get a full grip ( bad pun) on how a particular scrum has collapsed or see the detail in the body positions that lead to a hooker being popped up etc. Thanks again.
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Jimbo love your work but you can't be serious on this one....it's failings in the other provinces that have got us here not the golden goose ..Your not completely wrong no one ever is some players get picked on default because better solutions can't be found but Brumbies are our best generally speaking..
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Yes great point prob time too order refs to warn 8 and 9 use ball same as maul when pauses not give them minutes to keep driving..
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Young props aren't easy too develop but in those two last weekend they are blessed just Potgeiter type lock and solve ten and Reds are fine...oh yeah Rebels prob need to go .
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Rennie was on verge of solving many former probs.ie powder puff pack led by soft front three.Didnt always let you down but did on enough occasions to scratch your head.Gane against Ireland Toupou and Skelton pushed Irish pack back with ease than snap tanela gone but he had least finally got that right ..try against France back foot counter absolutely brilliant and stuff we haven’t done in years than picks C team loses to Italy and Rennie gone, hopefully Eddie minds his own business says a few funny stories in camp and basically picks the obvious team that takes where we were heading anyway…final!!
Passit2me
Roar Rookie
Hi Rolando, thx for your reply. Watch how they bind up, the Props no longer push their shoulders out in front of the Hookers shoulders. It takes effort to pop your shoulder, as you need to push your shoulder out in front. Therefore, to loosen the bind, you do not need to move your shoulder up and away. To have a loose bind, you just leave your shoulder where it is behind the Hookers shoulder, which is where it naturally sits, since you are wrapping your arms around the back of the Hooker. The Hooker easily strikes while the props shoulders are popped as the props shoulders now provide very good pivot support while he drops down to strike. Without the popped shoulders, 1. the bind is very loose and 2. The Hooker needs to rely on his own arm strength to support himself. Both of these aspects make the Hooker and front row bind vulnerable. It also allows the Props to now bore in on the opposing Hooker which is illegal. The modern scrum is an absolute shambles, rewards illegal play and keeps the games enormous penalty count mounting. The predictability of the Scrum-Penalty pattern is so predictable and boring.
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
NZ teams clearly are fitter and my guess that this comes from training harder. Every Oz SR player that goes to the NPC talks about their training intensity - it shouldn’t be a step up for them but it somehow is.
Emery Ambrose
Roar Rookie
Cheers Sam, great analysis and read. Reds are my team from Australia I support, been hard watching this year after the heights of recent years.