Origin I predicted teams: Hynes, Graham bang down Blues door but pack cops hit, Maroons No.1 jersey up for grabs

With just three rounds left before the State of Origin squads are announced, there is little time left for incumbents to shore up their spot as a bunch of in-form challengers turn up the pressure for jerseys. 

Sharks halfback Nicho Hynes and Rabbitohs centre Campbell Graham are leading the charge as potential debutants for the Blues while the battle between Reece Walsh and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow for the fullback jersey is the main selection battle for the Maroons.

From the 17-man line-ups who fought out the series decider at Suncorp Stadium when the Maroons clinched a 22-12 triumph, nearly all 34 players are in contention.

Queensland forward Jeremiah Nanai is out of the running after he copped a four-match ban for a hip-drop tackle last Thursday against Cronulla.

For NSW, second-rower Liam Martin’s ongoing hamstring woes mean he is unlikely to play again for Penrith until Round 12 at the earliest when the Panthers take on Brisbane in the final hit-out before Origin squads are selected while veteran middle Jake Trbojevic is out of game one after suffering a grade-two calf tear for Manly last weekend which will sideline him for a month.

Patrick Carrigan, Selwyn Cobbo, Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai made their debut last season. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Canberra star Jack Wighton was not a part of the third Origin match last year and would have been in contention for a bench spot but recently announced he was retiring from rep footy before dropping a bigger bombshell by signing with South Sydney.

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Here’s how the two states are shaping up for the May 31 showdown at Adelaide Oval with three rounds left before the teams are announced.

NSW Blues

2022 Origin III team

1 James Tedesco
2 Brian To’o
3 Matt Burton
4 Stephen Crichton
5 Daniel Tupou
6 Jarome Luai
7 Nathan Cleary
8 Junior Paulo
9 Api Koroisau
10 Jake Trbojevic
11 Cameron Murray
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14 Damien Cook
15 Jacob Saifiti
16 Angus Crichton
17 Siosifa Talakai

2023 contenders

Blues spine: Luai is under immense pressure to retain the No.6 jersey with Hynes in red-hot form at the Sharks and although he does not play five-eighth at club level, he would be a complementary option alongside Cleary. 

Luai’s efforts with Penrith this season have been patchy and Hynes would give the Blues a much better secondary kicker in general play. 

Koroisau has been gallant as the Tigers have racked up the losses apart from last weekend’s upset over Penrith while Cook also hasn’t put a foot wrong at Souths so Brad Fittler will likely keep those two as his dummy-half rotation. 

Nicho Hynes was 18th man for the Blues in 2022. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Outside backs: Josh Addo-Carr’s chances of a recall to the wing were cruelled by the syndesmosis injury last month. Brian To’o is a lock for one spot while Campbell Graham is in a purple patch which has him marginally ahead of Joseph Suaalii for the other flank. 

Graham played on the wing at the start of his NRL career at the Rabbitohs and with Tupou out of action due to a hamstring strain, his chances of an Origin debut are rising after be broke into the international ranks with the Kangaroos at last year’s World Cup. 

Tom Trbojevic and Mitchell Latrell are all but certain to reunite in the centres as they’ve done successfully in seasons prior to last year when they were both unavailable due to shoulder and hamstring problems. 

Graham is the standout option if Trbojevic, who was sidelined last week with a groin problem, or Mitchell are unavailable.

Forward pack: Fittler will be crossing his fingers that Brisbane behemoth Payne Haas is available, along with Junior Paulo because his middle forward options are dropping like flies. Haas missed last year’s Origin decider with a shoulder problem.

Jake Trbojevic is out until June with a calf tear while Eels prop Reagan Campbell-Gillard’s chances of an Origin recall for the first two matches were cruelled by the groin injury he suffered in Haas’ controversial hip-drop tackle in Darwin recently. 

Jake Trbojevic. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Newcastle twins Daniel and Jacob Saifiti are options with Origin experience while Andrew Johns has floated the option of using Cameron Murray as a bench middle rather than starting in the second row, which was a move the Blues made on game night for the series opener last year. 

Martin is running out of time to overcome his hamstring injury in time for selection after aggravating the injury when he tried to make a comeback three weeks ago in Newcastle.

“I couldn’t say for sure he will be Origin ready, but he should be playing by then,” Panthers coach Ivan Cleary said in his Tuesday media conference.

Apart from Martin, the other second-row options are Roosters star Angus Crichton, who is two games back after a late start to the season, Manly’s Haumole Olakau’atu and Canberra’s Hudson Young. South Sydney’s Keaon Koloamatangi could have been a debutant option but he is out until next month with ankle damage.

Crichton has also been used in the middle-forward rotation at Origin level so he’s almost assured of an interchange berth if not needed in the run-on side. 

Possible 2023 Origin I team

1 James Tedesco
2 Brian To’o
3 Tom Trbojevic
4 Latrell Mitchell
5 Campbell Graham
6 Nicho Hynes
7 Nathan Cleary
8 Payne Haas
9 Api Koroisau
10 Junior Paulo
11 Cameron Murray
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14 Damien Cook
15 Daniel Saifiti
16 Angus Crichton
17 Haumole Olakau’atu
18 Hudson Young

Queensland Maroons

2002 Origin III team

1 Kalyn Ponga
2 Selwyn Cobbo
3 Valentine Holmes
4 Dane Gagai
5 Corey Oates
6 Tom Dearden
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Lindsay Collins
9 Ben Hunt
10 Josh Papalii
11 Kurt Capewell
12 Jeremiah Nanai
13 Patrick Carrigan
Interchange
14 Harry Grant
15 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
16 Jai Arrow
17 Tom Gilbert

2023 contenders

Maroons spine: The names Munster, Cherry-Evans, Hunt and Grant have been inked into the teamsheet from the moment coach Billy Slater started to think about selection permutations.

The spine spot up for grabs is fullback – incumbent Kalyn Ponga was brilliant at the back for the Maroons last year and despite an underwhelming return from his concussion-related stint on the sidelines, Queensland’s famous loyalty factor could mean he returns in the No.1 jersey.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

But if the team was chosen solely on form, then Brisbane’s Reece Walsh would probably just edge out Dolphins speedster Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow.

Unless Ponga starts to fire for the Knights, Walsh deserves a chance after going close a couple of times previously while Tabuai-Fidow should find a spot elsewhere in the backline.

Outside backs: Exactly where Tabuai-Fidow ends up is yet to be determined.

Holmes is a certainty for one centre spot while Gagai, despite stellar service in 22 Origins, could make way for his younger counterpart.

The Hammer could also find a home on the wing.

Oates was a fill-in on the wing last year and after missing six weeks with a broken jaw earlier this season, he is now out until the end of May with a posterior cruciate ligament strain. 

Cobbo and Storm star Xavier Coates are the other contenders so the Maroons selectors suddenly have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to their outside backs after a couple of years where their depth was paper thin.

Forward pack: Nanai’s four-game ban for a hip-drop in the Cowboys’ loss to Cronulla last week opens the door for Titans marquee David Fifita to return for his first Origin since 2021 after Slater didn’t pick him last year due to a mixture of injuries and underwhelming form.

Canberra firebrand Corey Horbsburgh is making a strong case for his first call-up as Papalii looks like his Maroons days are numbered. He was barely used by Slater in last year’s series so it’d be a surprise if he gets another Origin campaign. 

Christian Welch is working his way back to top form at the Storm after his Achilles tear and will probably be in the squad.

Broncos prop Tom Flegler is also in the mix while Slater has named Parramatta lock J’maine Hopgood as an uncapped player who is in contention while North Queensland’s Reuben Cotter, who starred on debut in the series opener before missing the next two with a hamstring injury, should find his way onto the interchange alongside in-form Dolphins lock Tom Gilbert.

Possible 2023 Origin I team

1 Reece Walsh
2 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
3 Valentine Holmes
4 Dane Gagai
5 Selwyn Cobbo
6 Cameron Munster
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
9 Ben Hunt
10 Lindsay Collins
11 Kurt Capewell
12 David Fifita
13 Patrick Carrigan
Interchange
14 Harry Grant
15 Tom Gilbert
16 Reuben Cotter
17 Christian Welch
18 Jai Arrow