ANALYSIS: Depleted Broncos buck Origin trend as Reynolds inspires crucial win over Warriors despite last-minute drama

In the grand scheme of things, a gritty 26-22 win over the Warriors in Round 13 is not necessarily the be-all and end-all for a premiership campaign.

But when you register the victory a long way from home in Napier with five stars out on Origin duty, it’s the kind of win that can be oh so vital when the final playoff standings are set.

Brisbane went into Saturday night’s clash without NSW prop Payne Haas as well as Maroons quartet Reece Walsh, Selwyn Cobbo, Thomas Flegler and Patrick Carrigan.

But it was the players who were on the field who mattered, not the ones stuck in Origin camp.

Last-minute drama proves decisive

After leading 26-10, the Broncos were nearly swamped late by a fast-finishing Warriors side and the home side could have snatched victory in the final minute but Adam Pompey was penalised for holding Deine Mariner back as Marcelo Montoya dived over in the corner for what could have been the match-winning try.

Martin Taupau. (Photo by Kerry Marshall/Getty Images)

“It was a lucky one for us,” Broncos coach Kevin Walters conceded. “To be honest, I didn’t really see too much in it.”

Broncos skipper Adam Reynolds said it could have gone either way as Pompey didn’t appear to hold Mariner back with too much force but it was enough to cruel his team’s chances of victory after the bunker review.

This incident is a rarity in rugby league – after the winning coach thought he was lucky to get the decision going his team’s way, Andrew Webster on the losing side of the coin was not blowing up about the call.

“No complaints,” he said. “That sums us up tonight. I’m not throwing it all on that moment but we had a million of those moments that we didn’t own.

“The last play is not the biggest moment, it’s just one of many but it came down to that.”

Broncos buck Origin trend

Brisbane were missing five stars but they still went into this encounter with a galaxy of talent led by Reynolds, returning after a head knock against Melbourne kept him out of their loss last week to Penrith, and surprise Maroons omission Kurt Capewell.

And their lesser lights stepped up in what may be only a brief flirtation with first grade this year – Mariner on the wing and Tristan Sailor (back in the NRL three years after his most recent appearance for the Dragons) in his club debut at fullback. Keenan Palasia made the most of his chance to start in the forwards, bending the Warriors back in attack and defence.

This wasn’t like when the famous “Baby Broncos” with a little-known coach called Craig Bellamy led them to a victory over the Wests Tigers in 2002 when they had 15 first-graders, including nine Origin stars, out.

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But it’s the kind of win that has the potential to help turn a playoff berth into a top-four spot or a high ladder finish into a minor premiership.

“I thought our scramble defence, particularly in that first half, saved three or four tries,” a relieved Walters said. “It really won us the game, that first 40. We knew if they got a flow of possession, they can score tries. That showed in the last five minutes of the game.

“We’re grateful for the win. Could have gone either way.”

Mariner kicked off the scoring in the 23rd minute with a long-range try against the run of play before veteran winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak equalised when he slid over in the corner.

Brisbane took a 12-6 lead into half-time after second-rower Jordan Riki plunged over and when Ezra Mam backed up a Reynolds break in the 53rd minute, the visitors stretched out to a 14-point advantage.

Watene-Zelezniak’s second four-pointer from some Shaun Johnson magic with 17 minutes remaining cut the deficit to 10 and they threatened to rope in the Broncos but Sailor and Mariner left the Warriors all at sea with a clever kick behind the line for the winger’s second try seven minutes from the siren.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad restored six points worth of respectability to the final scoreline with a late try and Montoya did likewise in the 78th minute to send a flutter through the Brisbane camp and they could have stolen the points in the dying stages if not for Pompey’s unnecessary contact which correctly led to the final try being disallowed.

Broncos navigating Origin period

After their strong start to the year, the Origin period could be make or break for Brisbane.

They were considered outsiders against the full-strength Warriors so these two competition points are found money.

Brisbane have a tricky trip to Cronulla next Saturday to face a Sharks side that only has Blues benchie Nicho Hynes backing up from Origin then homestands against Newcastle, Gold Coast and the Dolphins with a bye mixed in.

Their win over the Warriors keeps them in a tie for first with Penrith, Cronulla, Melbourne and potentially South Sydney if they topple the Raiders later in the evening.

Walters said the back-up brigade – Xavier Willison and Brendan Piakura, along with Mariner and Sailor – showed they can be more permanent fixtures in first grade if and when the next opportunity comes along.

“We had four guys who hadn’t played for us at all this year coming in for us tonight,” he said.

Warriors let opportunity slip

The Warriors, along with the Dolphins, have been the surprise packets of 2023 but this loss could prove costly in their hopes of forcing their way into an unlikely finals appearance under first-year coach Andrew Webster.

They are now back to a 6-6 record, clinging onto a spot in the eight, but have lost four of their past five as the mid-season grind appears to be taking a toll.

The Warriors didn’t lack for determination in Napier but they were ineffective when they got into Brisbane’s red zone.

Despite spending large chunks of time bombarding the Broncos’ line, they too often came away with nothing without even forcing a repeat set or any anxious moments in the defensive line.

“We won almost every single stat physically,” Webster said as he lamented crucial errors like knock-ons from drop-outs and conceding a length of the field try from a fumble.

“Our DNA all year has been we defend those, and we didn’t.”

For an upstart team like these Warriors, the Origin period is their time to make hay while the sun shines in the Land of the Long White Cloud.

They’ve got a date with the Dolphins back home in Auckland next Saturday, a trip to Canberra, a bye and a Wollongong sojourn with St George Illawarra on the horizon.

It’s a crucial stretch – they can solidify their playoff prospects with a strong month in June or remain in the dogfight for the last few spots in the finals.

Based on dire pre-season predictions, they’re well on track to over-achieve in 2023 but it would be a shame for the Warriors to go backwards now after such a promising start to their return season in NZ after three nomadic years due to the pandemic.