The Brumbies are the best team in Australia, and they have a chance to make the Super Rugby semi-finals this weekend but to do so they will have to beat the Hurricanes, a team they lost to previously this season.
In this article, we look at what the Brumbies need to do to turn the tables and advance.
It’s worth starting off by saying that this game is a clash of styles. The Hurricanes carry the second highest amount in the league whereas the Brumbies sit down in 10th. The Brumbies make the second highest amount of tackles in the league, averaging over 150 per game. These are two teams with wildly different approaches to playing rugby, but they’ve seen success this season regardless of that.
Those differences are important though. The Brumbies have only lost to four teams this season; Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, and the Force. Those four teams rank within the top five by possession. The Brumbies have problems when they face high possession teams, the Hurricanes will try and attack that weakness. What can the Brumbies do to tighten up in that area?
The first thing is straightforward, the Brumbies have to make the most of their entries to the opposition redzone. Across the season they have had almost exactly the same 22 entries as the Hurricanes. However, when the teams met earlier in the season, the Canes limited the Brumbies to just seven 22 entries, way below average. The Brumbies had only six rucks in the Canes’ 22.
The Brumbies won’t be able to hang with the Canes this weekend if that same scenario is repeated. They will have to maximise two things; the number of opportunities they have and the success they have per entry. With the majority of 22 entries coming from set-pieces, the Brumbies will need to be efficient when given these opportunities. They aren’t built to chase games and so they will need to keep chipping away at the Hurricanes and amassing points as the game progresses.
The Brumbies will be helped by a lineout which has fired this year. It has been the fourth best in the league with an 87% success rate – the top three are the Waratahs, Reds, and Force. Again though, the Hurricanes won this area when they faced off earlier in the year. They lost just one of their 13 lineouts whereas the Brumbies lost two of their 11. This is an important factor for all low possession teams. Being a low possession team isn’t just about kicking the ball all the time, it’s about knowing when to strike and being clinical when you do. Generally, the Brumbies have succeeded at this. But when playing high possession teams, they have less room to fail.
The Brumbies have been the least penalised team this year, giving up fewer than ten penalties per game. The Hurricanes are the next most penalised team. In the above clip, the Brumbies are penalised for failing to roll away in the ruck. That penalty, near halfway, gifted the Hurricanes a 22 entry from a position where they had no right to create that attacking platform. That would eventually lead to a try a few minutes later. The Brumbies only gave up six penalties in that match, but that was more than the Canes who gave up just four. These free attacking platforms will kill the Brumbies. They need to force the Canes to give up penalties and they need to win that battle.
Out of interest, typically penalties conceded is not a very good indicator of success. There are plenty of ways of giving up penalties in a productive way. For example, you might give up a penalty when under pressure in exchange for not conceding the try. Alternatively, you might target your opposition when they are attacking in their own 22 in the hope of stealing possession. Any penalty conceded there is unlikely to hurt you. However, penalties conceded between the 22s are undoubtedly painful. They grant your opponents’ chances and take chances away from you.
Finally though, we need to talk about kicking. The Brumbies kick just over 23 times per match which puts them around mid-table. That is unusual for a low possession team who we would usually expect to kick a lot. Against the Canes though they kicked, and kicked, and kicked some more. They kicked 37 times in total. That’s the second most kicks by a team in the league this year.
It really got away from the Brumbies. Some of their kicks were good but some were mindless and gifted the Hurricanes good attacking opportunities. I respect the Brumbies’ willingness to fully lean into their stereotype as a low possession team, but they probably went too far when they faced off against the Canes. That will be even more challenging now. The Brumbies have shown their hand in that match earlier in the season. Will they do the same or will they try and double bluff the Kiwi team?
This is a fascinating match-up. It’s probably the match-up of the quarterfinal. On paper, the Brumbies are the better team, but they also lost this game earlier in the year. Can the Brumbies correct that? Yes, but they’ll need to address those crucial factors.
PeterK
Roar Guru
No, who defends better in their 22 will win imo, i.e missing tackles in the danger zone will be the biggest determinate of the winner
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Their two wingers are terrible defenders. That can’t be fixed in a week
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
The difference the Brumbies present at the breakdown when Reimer is on the field surprises me how few minutes he gets
FrancisF
Roar Pro
To beat Kiwi teams, Brumbies need only to remember one thing for the 80 min.: Take the game upfront to the opponent team with high tempo and high energy running game and possession rugby… not for 60 min or 80 min but for 90 mins. Brumbies must go for the scoreboard in the first 15 minutes. Brumbies are hopeless when playing catch-up rugby, unlike most of the Kiwi teams which somehow will freakishly come from behind in the last 20 minutes to win the game. If the Brumbies cannot pump out more adrenaline in the last 10 mins, its game over. George Gregan as Wallabies captain usually had this to say to his team mates at the 70th minute: “ Come on guys, this is championship time.” That is call LEADERSHIP.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Thanks Sam for the article…! I bet my small savings that the Brumbies manage to defeat the Hurricanes and advance to SF. The relationship between the Rucks and Kicks executed, which would give us the measure of the style of play adopted by the teams, shows the Australian side much more devoted to the game of Kicks (3.28 rucks per kicks vs 3.69). With a little more control in game retention, the main risk to be assumed by Brumbies is to Optimize the opportunities generated. And I agree with you on this as well. Greetings.
Guess
Roar Rookie
He was terrible the game before too :sick:
Guess
Roar Rookie
That and they should use Valetini as decoy :stoked:
WEST
Roar Guru
Bit lopsided, funny a lot of the stats are in the Aussie favour.. just not the bottom line so to speak. I understand it must be a coach killer, so close to a breakthrough.. then a little thing puts them behind.. all these little errors compounded, we end up with the same results. Tweak here and there, I honestly believe a lot has to do with what’s going on between these guys ears. Lack of confidence or a lapse in judgment, poor decision making. Kiwis have the street smarts.. looks to me that some of these Aussies are getting over coached, not allowing them to express themselves. Getting bogged down by a coaches structure or to much strategy can have a negative effect.
Harry Jones
Expert
Thanks, Sam. BRUvHUR is big match! :boxing: I see that the Canes are one of only 3 teams who conceded fewer points this year than last (Brumbies D is a bit worse in 2023 than 2022). Also, Canes (and Chiefs) are kicking a lot more; which is assisting their D. Fans may not love it, but Brumbies have to kick better than the Canes to win this, IMO. And probably kick as much as the Canes.
Brett McKay
Expert
I mentioned this last week West. It's certainly unexpected..
Sam Larner
Expert
They had a right to it in that they gave away the penalty, but most attacks in that part of the pitch won't reach the 22. The Brumbies are higher in the league....I don't think that's a controversial statement.
Sam Larner
Expert
Absolutely Greg! Basically, if you look at penalties conceded and overlay team success, there's no correlation between the two. One of the reasons why it's not that important is because there's not a big difference between teams across the league. For example, the best and worst teams in Super Rugby only have a gap of 36 penalties conceded across the entire competition. The Blues concede the third most penalties but are third in the league, just as an anecdote. However, it does make sense if you dig in a bit further to the logic. If you're attacking my line and I concede a penalty (and it doesn't lead to a penalty try or sin bin) what have I actually lost? I've given you either an attacking platform, which doesn't give you massively more chance of success than what you had already. Or you kick the 3pts and I don't feel too bad about that. Equally, if you're in your own 22 with the ball and I give away a penalty then what does that give you? It gives you a free exit but you're likely to just kick it back to me from the lineout. The killers are the pens between the 22s which provide a free 22 entry when you probably wouldn't have received one otherwise.
John Ferguson
Expert
Game will be won at the breakdown and who can force the turnovers. What d'ya reckon Pete?
John Ferguson
Expert
Good read Sam. I think the stats about the lineout are misguiding, the maul is failing to fire the same way so they are not scoring as much of it this year under Larkham as they were under McKeller. Losing a lineout is never good but nullifying one of their signature weapons is a sure way to blunt their attack which has been good in broken play but a little flat and unthreatening from set piece. But the kicking battle as you have outlined will be pivotal. Also really enjoyed your point about where penalties can be conceded. Stopping the Canes from exiting their 22m line effectively will be key.
Sam Larner
Expert
It's fascinating! They're very unusually, globally, in how they play. Lots of teams play low-possession but very few do it without kicking the ball away. It's very unusual. Should be a hell of a match-up.
Sam Larner
Expert
I'm generally in favour of that approach. Hard to be out of the game when you're keeping adding 3pts all the time.
WEST
Roar Guru
Surprisingly all Aussie teams are better than the kiwis as far as lineouts won.. Force, Reds, Waratahs, Brumbies, Highlanders, Blues, Crusaders… etc.
MalBreakaway
Roar Rookie
I don’t think there’s anything “mindless” about the Brumbies. Their game is very much about having the best mindset. Larkham speaks about it as foundational to execution of skillsets. Am looking forward to the match and hoping Nick Berry and other refs are both impartial and not blowing their own trumpets. Weather looks good too. Great to have at least 1 finals match in Australia.
Wig
Roar Rookie
I agree, and Noah's had his whack why they need a lifetime to come good. Do rugby Australia actually care about results and fixing
Wig
Roar Rookie
what you talking about willis