Make or break for Manly: Why beating the Dolphins is season-defining for Anthony Seibold

It wasn’t long after this time of year, back in 2018, that Anthony Seibold’s coaching career really got going.

His South Sydney team went 50% through the first third ofthe year, then embarked on a mammoth nine game unbeaten streak that took them from the middle to the very top, ending with a Preliminary Final appearance.

The next year, at Brisbane, was so-so, then the year after that was dreadful, and you know the rest.

It’s an interesting jumping off point for a dissection of his current situation at Manly, who have been muddling along for 12 games of 2023 without much fanfare.

It’s been a case of week on, week off thus far. 

The high points have been pretty high: this side picked apart Melbourne, put Parramatta to the sword and went to Canberra and smashed a Raiders side that was unbeaten in two months.

The lows, too, have been low: the Sea Eagles were humbled at home by the Titans, thrashed in Brisbane and destroyed in Penrith.

There’s been a lot of grey area, too. They got two points from a godawful showing against the Tigers, but dropped two the night they were superb at Souths. Such has been year one of Seibold’s tenure.

Now, with Wayne Bennett’s Dolphins rolling into Brookvale, it seems like a make or break moment for their season, an inflection point at which the experiment could either kick on into something special or fade away into insignificance.

Currently, they stand on five wins, six losses and a draw, placing the side well within Finals contention.

A 50% record probably isn’t going to cut it for a post-season berth this year, meaning that Manly will have to be better in the second half of 2023 than they were in the first.

That’s not to say that they have been bad. It’s been a qualified pass for the new boss and the case for mitigation of their poor results is quite strong.

Brad Parker celebrates after scoring a try with teammates. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

The Sea Eagles have looked good enough when they have been good to make fans believe that there might be something in this team, with a level of tactical innovation that, had he taken over a team in worse shape, would be seen as progress. 

Seibold’s Manly have been carrying a star player who may or may not be fit, and managing near-constant chatter about that.

For what it’s worth, when Trbojevic has been on deck he’s been the equal of pretty much any fullback in the comp, though most media outlets only seem to be interested in his straightline top speed.

There’s a bit more to it than that, of course, and if any other team had a fullback who was top five for line breaks, tries, metres, line break assists and possessions we’d think they were having an amazing season.

Turbo being Turbo, and everyone being able to remember his ridiculous 2021, we’re asking why he’s not at his best.

Daly Cherry-Evans has also been close to his best, which is a major victory for Seibold. DCE is the undisputed king in the changing room and Seibold’s reputation as a coach who gives his playmakers detailed, complex instructions is burnished by the form of his veteran halfback.

If Cherry-Evans and Trbojevic keep this up, you’d back Manly to compete with anyone.

That, however, is the problem. Des Hasler didn’t struggle to get those two to perform either, and the greater issue was always finding the players to go with them.

Seibold has struggled with this too, and it’s a noted failing of Manly in 2023. 

At the start of the year, there appeared be a formula that combined the best of Hasler’s 2021 Sea Eagles, with lots of expansive play and early shifts, with more impactful defensive work, especially in the edges and outside backs.

That clearly has not lasted. For the first month of the year, they were gaining the ball via errors from the opposition caused by jolting, aggressive shots. It was a clear change in mentality. 

Then it all went up in smoke, returning to the indecision between edges and OBs that haunted the Hasler era.

Part of this has been beyond Seibold’s control. His defensive leader, Jake Trbojevic, has been out and Kelma Tuilagi, his star backrow recruit, was plagued by poor form and, latterly, injury. 

Manly have lost outside backs upon outside backs, with only Reuben Garrick a constant.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Beyond him, it has been chaos, and that’s before you get to the five eighth role, where Josh Schuster was the great white hope, only for fitness to constantly keep him off the field.

Now, there can be fewer excuses and it’s why the Dolphins game this Friday night can set the tone.

Schuster is back fit and firing, DCE and Turbo are both on deck after Origin and the outside backs are, for the first time, close to what Seibold’s original plan. Coming off the back of a Bye, this is the time to kick on.

Seibold has had two weeks to reinstill his values into the team and perform a reset on their season. Win tomorrow and there is a potentially season-defining block of fixtures with Parramatta, Melbourne and the Roosters before the next week off ahead of Origin 3. 

For a side that has largely split the difference so far, doing so here won’t be enough. It’s time to start that Souths 2018-style run, which could change the entire outlook of the season on the Northern Beaches.

Fans are generally forgiving of a side that seems to be going somewhere, and that aspect has to change too. 

When Manly have looked good, it has been the other players – though not named DCE or Trbojevic – who have stood up and allowed the elite talents to flourish. 

Again, the Dolphins provide the perfect moment here: largely without elite talents, they have put enough together to win games, because Wayne Bennett is an expert at elevating the level of least gifted players. 

This remains the big knock on Seibold, and one that he can begin to address here. If he gets a tune out of the likes of Sean Keppie, Karl Lawton and Ethan Bullemor, he’ll get a performance from his big guys too. That has to start on Friday night at 4 Pines Park.