We’re less than a week out from the first All Black squad naming of the year. While most selections have been pretty well telegraphed, the fact that there are 36 spots to be filled means there is room for a few surprises.
There’s no surprise at all that the All Blacks, who have been under intense scrutiny after three lean seasons, have decided to make it as difficult as possible for the media to cover. They’re naming the side on a Sunday night in Te Awamutu, three hours’ drive from Auckland, Cheers Fozzie.
As per usual in New Zealand, the debate around who will be wearing the number 10 jersey has been the hottest area of contention, with the three most likely candidates having their moments so far this Super Rugby season.
But there are other areas of contention. Age and form are factors as old as the game itself but also given the All Blacks have never really settled on key combinations since their last World Cup win in 2015, there’s a pretty palpable feeling of the unknown as the time when they’re going to try and win it back draws closer.
Here’s a look at the All Black power rankings
Looseheads
1. Ethan de Groot 2. Ofa Tuungafasi 3. Joe Moody 4. Xavier Numia 5. Aidan Ross
Even though his Highlanders team was absolute rubbish this year, de Groot has very much maintained the form that saw him yo-yo back into the All Blacks last year after being mystifyingly dropped. There’s not really much between him and Moody who is down the chart due to an ankle injury that will heal up for the Test season, while Tuungafasi’s load has been eased thanks to a solid propping rotation at the Blues, with the veteran obviously an excellent option as well. Ross’s versatility could see him add to his one test cap.
Hookers
1. Codie Taylor 2. Samisoni Taukei’aho 3. Dane Coles 4. Asafo Aumua
Taukei’aho was the talk of the town after his excellent introduction to Test rugby over the past couple of seasons, but Taylor has made a compelling case to take back the starting role after some standout performances for the Crusaders. He and Coles have played a big part in reinventing the role of the hooker, which keeps Coles in the frame despite impending retirement. The edge that all three men have over the others is that they are adept at scoring tries, not just from lineout drives but open field play as well.
(Photo by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
Tightheads
1. Tyrel Lomax 2. Nepo Laulala 3. Tamaiti Williams 4. Oli Jager 5. Fletcher Newell
Many Hurricanes fans’ eyes were rubbed in disbelief as the side’s scrum dominated throughout this year’s Super Rugby campaign. OK, it didn’t help them get past the quarter finals but it certainly enhanced Lomax’s (and the aforementioned Numia’s) case as the front runner for the No.3 jersey. Laulala has been part of the aforementioned Blues rotation and has been consistent, while Williams’ enormous presence and Newell’s long term injury should see him earn a debut. If Jager is picked it will reverse the recent trend of Ireland bringing over New Zealanders to play in their test side.
Locks
1. Samuel Whitelock 2. Brodie Retallick 3. Scott Barrett 4. Tupou Vaa’i
Here’s where we hit a bit of a speed bump with the progress to the World Cup. While it’s blasphemy to suggest Whitelock and Retallick are anything less than All Black legends with 243 matches, it doesn’t hide the fact that both have suffered injuries this season and the only experienced back up they have is Barrett. Vaa’i is extremely promising but just hasn’t been given the Test minutes to take his game to the next level.
Blindside flankers
1. Ethan Blackadder 2. Shannon Frizell 3. Luke Jacobson 4. Akira Ioane
Blackadder’s spot is dependent on how serious the injury he picked up last weekend is, but it also shows just how long it’s been since the All Blacks had genuine first pick in the blindside spot. Frizell is capable but inconsistent, Jacobson is injury prone and Ioane needs to do way more to improve his perception as being a flat track bully.
Openside flankers
1. Sam Cane 2. Dalton Papalii 4. Tom Christie 4. Billy Harmon 5. Du’Plessis Kirifi
There’d been a lot of chat about Cane’s place as All Black captain, as many believed he’s not even the best player in his position. However, his form throughout Super Rugby has put a lot of that to rest with Cane on a murderous defensive rampage throughout. Papalii has been very good too and may well feature on the blindside in conjunction with Cane if Blackadder doesn’t recover. Christie had watched everyone around him get injured and shouldered their loads at the Crusaders, while Harmon admittedly has had the benefit of being a standout player on a rubbish Highlanders team.
Number eights
1. Ardie Savea 2. Hoskins Sotutu 3. Christian Lio-Willie
Arguably the first name after Cane on the team sheet is Savea, who has actually improved his reputation as a human highlight reel this season. After him, Sotutu has been very powerful and Jacobson is also a more than capable option if he can stay healthy. The real story though is whatever happened to Pita Gus Sowakula in the minds of the selectors – this time last year he was an All Black, by October he wasn’t even in the A side. Sowakula’s form certainly hasn’t dipped for the Chiefs, either.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Halfbacks
1. Aaron Smith 2. Brad Weber 3. Finlay Christie 4. Cam Roigard 5. Folau Fakatava
For the last decade and a bit the All Black halfback picture has been Aaron Smith first, daylight second, then whoever else is playing well at the time. Remarkably, that’s still the case even though Smith is moving on after the World Cup, but the traffic jam behind him is packed. It really depends on who Foster wants to close out games – a similar model like Brad Weber or Finlay Christie, or the more physically imposing presence of newcomer Roigard.
No.10s
1. Richie Mo’unga 2. Damian McKenzie 3. Beauden Barrett 4. Stephen Perofeta
This really is the million-dollar question. Right now, it feels like Mo’unga has the inside running as the Crusaders hit finals mode, and really the final itself could be a shadow All Black trial between him and McKenzie. DMac has shown just how much of a gamebreaker he is by being on the winning side against the Crusaders twice already this season, while Barrett’s form has dipped enough to raise a question mark over whether he’ll even be in the full-strength squad.
(Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images)
Inside centres
1. Jordie Barrett 2. David Havili 3. Quinn Tupaea 4. Levi Aumua 5. Bryce Heem
The news is better for the youngest Barrett brother, though. Even though he finally made it into the 12 jersey by chance when Quinn Tupaea had his knee rearranged by Darcy Swain, Barrett has shown what a lot have been saying all along. His strong running, offloading ability and option as a goal kicker make him an easy pick. After him, the All Blacks are sweating on the fitness of Havili and Tupaea’s comeback after that long layoff. If the dice is rolled it could be a call up for Aumua or even the 34-year-old Heem.
Outside centres
1. Anton Lienert-Brown 2. Rieko Ioane 3. Leicester Fainga’anuku 4. Jack Goodhue
Like the locks and blindside, the All Blacks really have been searching for a centre combination for quite a while now. Rieko Ioane’s shift in from the wing has seen him probably extend his Test career considerably, but he still is just shaded by Lienert-Brown. Fainga’anuku is an interesting case as he’s signed to go and play in France next season, just how that decision plays out and impacts his selection remains to be seen. His ability to play on the wing as well makes him hard to leave out.
Wingers
1. Mark Telea 2. Shaun Stevenson 3. Emoni Narawa 4. Caleb Clarke
Telea has been hands down the most dangerous player in Super Rugby this season, carrying on the form that saw him pick up two Test caps at the end of last year. Stevenson has not played a Test but it’ll be a travesty if that’s still the case after the Rugby Championship, it also helps that he’s just as good at fullback too. Narawa would be a bolter but not too surprising given the All Blacks’ historical selections at wing for World Cups, while Clarke has slipped down the order having not been helped by a leg injury this year.
Fullbacks
1. Will Jordan 2. Jordie Barrett 3. Stephen Perofeta 4. Damian McKenzie 5. Beauden Barrett 6. Zarn Sullivan
Jordan managed to hit the ground running after a long layoff due to concussion-related symptoms, scoring at a try a game as he reversed the Crusaders’ concerning injury toll by at least one. The only real competition he has is if Foster goes with a dual-playmaker role and puts one of DMac or Beauden Barrett there to partner Mo’unga at 10.
Nick
Roar Rookie
If not us. Hopefully someone new Muzzo.
ojp44
Roar Rookie
your Super teams perform well every season (aside from Otago, obviously) We will always have 2015 Dusty ! Its all about expectation management; I never expected Otago to win and still bask in the warm glow of 2015 :rugby: Related; I picked St Kilda as my AFL team when I arrived in WA and was advised that barracking for a team was a condition of entry. Again, low expectations ...
Spew_81
Roar Rookie
It’s easy to say the McCaw era, but he played for 15 years. The All Blacks were world number one: 2003, 2004-2007, 2008, 2009, 2009-19, 2021. Being number one for a season or two in the 2024-2027 RWC cycle is realistic. The times where the All Blacks haven’t been the best they were right up there, in a group of two or three that were clearly ahead of the pack. The aura of the jersey remained. Now the All Blacks are part of the pack with France and Ireland leading. That aura was seriously tarnished under Foster’s regime. It’s going to take a big turnaround. If the trend from 2016 to 2023 continues by 2028 things could be really bad. Us talking about it doesn’t make it more or less likely, the players know it better than us. Why would top players take a 50% pay cut to play for a mid-quality team (even if their pay is still a lot)? That’s why Robertson’s tenure will be so important. The 1998-2002 era for the All Blacks was bad; 1998 was terrible. Mitchell started righting the ship with huge wins in the Tri Nations, but things went bad in the Semi Final. Henry’s team put the pride back in the black jersey; but that pride led to a fall in 2007. They turned it around. Robertson needs to do the same. I agree it’s a lot of pressure for Robertson. But he fought for the job for years. He understands what he’s undertaken.
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
Agreed on Cruden. You need to remember that historically there have been lots of times when we haven't been clearly the best. In fact, the only time we were after Buck was axed and before McCaw's generation really hit their straps was 96/97. The standards you are setting are unrealistic. You're also making massive assumptions about first choice All Blacks leaving in droves. It's not happened yet and there's no reason to believe that it will in the near future. Sure we can reassess if it happens but in the meantime just talking about it makes it more likely.
WEST
Roar Guru
They rotate because they can’t settle on a team. Foster has this theory that if you swap & change the team every other game then eventually something will happen. He’s been doing that since 2020. I’m not really sure what he’s trying to achieve. I thought getting hammered by Ireland & France might of given us a direction, considering it’s a NH IRB, all the rules and ideas for the RWC come out of Dublin. So a game plan to suit should have evolved
Jamie Wall
Expert
Fair call.
Spew_81
Roar Rookie
I agree there was a big exodus after the 2007 debacle; some of that was a rejection of the rotation policy and players being stood down from Super Rugby; players want to play, not be part of a 46 person squad and play every other game. But New Zealand had the players to replace them; perhaps some of the replacements weren’t quite as good e.g. no prop has been as good as Hayman since, and it wasn’t until Whitelock and Retallick that Jack was properly replaced. Though I think that Kaino is slightly better than Collins. Kaino wasn’t quite the explosive runner that Collins was, but he was better in the tight and jumped in the lineout; he also didn’t throw intercept passes. Read was probably the best All Black 8 ever. Agree that Cruden was very good, underrated. I would’ve much preferred a Cruden 10/B Barrett 15 combo in the 2016-2019 cycle, with Mo’unga being the apprentice. I think Mehrtens and Spencer had easier eras (better packs and less developed defenses). Mo’unga would’ve been a revelation in mid to late 1990s. But that is more a sign of how much rugby has grown. I think Mo’unga would’ve been better with more game time under Hansen/Foster. Hansen should’ve realized after the Lions series that the All Blacks didn’t have the forwards for a ‘run first’ 10. Also that part of the reason B Barrett looked so good, in the 2016-2017 Rugby Championship, was that the Wallabies and the Springboks were both uncharacteristically weak teams at the time. The only more traditional option the All Blacks had at 10, apart from Cruden (who was probably annoyed at being passed over and went overseas) was Mo’unga. As stated above Hansen should’ve had Cruden at 10. The point I was making about potentially having to pick from overseas wasn’t related to any one player in particular. It was that the replacement options aren’t was good as previous generations. Hopefully that is a temporary blip and the current young players develop to top quality. I think the quality of the current crop of All Blacks isn’t as good as the of Super Rugby opposition dropped meaning New Zealand teams weren’t having to dig as deep to win, then New Zealand players started leaving earlier meaning there are less veterans to lead by example for the apprentices. On the other hand the northern unions improved their systems and Southern hemisphere players who went north improved the quality of the competition in the Northern hemisphere. Yes, there are cycles but a 10 year gap (in producing players of the same quality) is not part of a cycle, it more likely is a part of a systemic decline; hopefully a big part of that is Foster, we’ll see. The NZRU probably should’ve looked to make a Silverlake type deal in 2016, when the All Blacks’ brand was one of dominance and excellence. They could’ve used that money to pay the All Blacks more and for an All Backs XV. Those actions which would’ve kept more high quality talent in New Zealand, improving the quality of New Zealand teams and the All Blacks. Unfortunately for Robertson the pressure is there. It’s basically do or die for the All Blacks in the 2024-2027 cycle. Either his team becomes clearly the best (or at least number one for a season or two), attracting sponsors, and restoring the All Black’s reputation (which provides a reason to turn down the extra money from overseas). Or the All Blacks can stick to home talent only and be mid ranked, or have to allow the odd exceptional player to base themselves overseas – I don’t like it anymore than you do.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
It would definately be a gamble to give LA a shot at this stage but I dont see a lot to lose. Yeah a Crotty at 12 would have been great to mentor him but his SR form in a losing side has been phenominal. Of the current players maybe a ALB or Havili ( Im not really a Havili at 12 fan ) at 12 as Im not certain JB would be the best option with LA. Who knows tho. Maybe JB / LA would work. Give it a go I say.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
From memory Mounga missed some rugby due to family commitments ( Baby on way ) so missed the Perth test and following RC matches in Aus which maybe didnt help him but he has 50 tests now. Im surprised he chose to go knowing Razor would be the coach but Im not worried about his replacement. We have players coming thru. Next year has to be Dmac as 1st choice leading into the 1st test but even Josh Ioane may finally stand up as we know the guy has talent. Im hoping ZS gets back to 10 withh BB going and Love has basically missed this season due to injury. Cameron is playing well and there is some very good backup to the main guys also.
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
By rights he should be there, but we'll just have to wait & see, as anything can happen, with the known clown we have ATM.
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
True Nick, & TBH although i'm an AB supporter, Fosters overall selections for this upcoming RWC could see his downfall before the event kicks off. ATM I'm looking at the current champs to take it out, again.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Can't wait to see what Razor can do post RWC clean out. I'm actually looking forward to the new gen coming through. The cattle is there it just need nurturing!
Nick
Roar Rookie
Exactly Jacko. They're in a lull. ABs have been shite in the past not unreasonable to think they'll be shite against sometimes. However I feel the talent is around but the coaching staff can't pick it's horse & plan & stick to it. We still have so much up in the air & we're a few month's out from RWC!
Nick
Roar Rookie
West is it rotate or can't settle on the team .
Nick
Roar Rookie
Jacko I feel he could be a great 13 but needs time he's a great tackler but his organisation is poor. Would love to see LA there but he's gonna need a organiser partners him.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Muzzo I call them Fozzie Firsts. Not making the Q's @ RWC would be his final one...
Nick
Roar Rookie
JB @ 12 is a worry now BluesF. At the end of last year I thought he was looking great there ????♂️
Nick
Roar Rookie
Yeah totally frustrating that him & LF are going Jacko.
Nick
Roar Rookie
I don't feel RM has ever really been allowed to settle in to the ABs 10 roll Jacko. You could be right but I really thought Razor coming in would give him the chance to settle & then we'd really find out his mettle. But he's off! I find that really frustrating and perplexing!
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
So it's only down in Te Waipounamu where those eyepatches prevail?? OK, if you say so!!!