Pythagoras once said “the great science is to live happily in the present.”
When it comes to list management, too many football clubs scientifically and religiously live too deep in the future.
As St Kilda and Carlton know all too well, rebuilding with a longing stare into the distance carries no guarantees.
But this is not an article about the philosophical pros and cons of a rebuild. No, this is about AFL clubs retiring star players before their time is up. In other words, the greed for future stars drowning out the requirement for current A-listers on the wrong side of 30.
When Leigh Montagna, then 33, was told to pack his bags at the end of 2017, the view from the Saints was that Bailey Rice was one of a few ready to take his position at half-back.
Rice was delisted at the end of 2019.
Simultaneously, Nick Riewoldt was given his marching orders. Paddy McCartin needed space to develop, Riewoldt was told.
This is not a criticism of McCartin as his greatest problem has been out of his control, but even his biggest fans would concede he was never going to be Riewoldt. Why couldn’t the two co-exist for another 12 months?
Alan Richardson, who was part of the decision-making team that moved Montagna and Riewoldt on, lost his job midway through 2019. The push for youth materially impacted his win-loss.
At the end of 2020, Kade Simpson was delisted after 342 games at Carlton. The next generation of Blues would carry the club forward, he was told. They did not.
A year later, Nathan Jones was keen to play on at Melbourne. The Demons, who won the 2021 flag, politely retired their three-time best and fairest instead.
He may no longer have been in their best team, but his sheer work ethic, leadership and durability would have helped the Dees in 2022. And as a backup, Jones would have been perfect.
I’m not claiming these greats, and others, deserved another year solely because they were champions. The emotion largely has to be taken out of every situation.
No, I’m arguing clubs place far too much faith in low draft picks that data proves will most likely amount to nothing instead of trusting what they already have.
If you’re a first round draftee, you are less than a 50-50 chance to have a 150-game AFL career. Predictably, the strike-rate drops significantly after that.
It’s why I was in favour of Nat Fyfe re-signing for two years, Lance Franklin playing on in 2023, and would like to see at least one of Trent Cotchin or Jack Riewoldt play on.
Keeping Cotchin, who is 33 not 36, on Richmond’s list will not stifle development of younger players unless they allow it to.
It should also not soak up much-needed funds if he’s prepared to take a pay cut.
Cotchin, a Brownlow medallist and one of eight players to captain three premiership in football history, is playing fantastic football, revitalised by a shift back into the midfield.
Provided he’s prepared to be rested or dropped on form – just as Brisbane did with Daniel Rich and Jack Gunston – having a senior head around the club is surely beneficial for the Tigers as they embark on a new era.
Richmond has 45 senior list spots. Forty-five.
Surely they can spare one for a player who is highly credentialed in so many facets and still perform to a reasonable level.
Trent Cotchin celebrates a goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Riewoldt, who will turn 35 in October, is far from the player he was at his best, but he’s still contributing most weeks.
He may have no desire for a reduced VFL-centric role – which is fine – but if his mind is open, he could have a similar influence as Tim McGrath did at Geelong in 2002.
McGrath, by then well past his prime, agreed to stay on one more year to captain the Cats’ VFL outfit.
Little did he know he would skipper a flag with teammates such as Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman, James Kelly and Gary Ablett.
Riewoldt could remain as a quasi-coach who could fill holes in the senior team when required and lead in the VFL when not needed at the top level. It’s not a radical model in other sports, but it’s rarely used in the draft-focused AFL landscape.
Footy punters are too quick to say “he’s done” instead of “he’s not what he was, accept him for what he is and watch him play a role in the right circumstances.”
The other argument often put forward for players retiring slightly early is they deserve to go out on top.
This is utter romantic bulldust. I say eke every last ounce of skill and tenacity out of your body if you can, then call it quits.
Nobody cares Matthew Pavlich and Tony Lockett could hardly move in their last year, or Ricky Ponting’s reactions slowed in his twilight, or Michael Jordan played at the Washington Wizards.
Equally, nobody will care one iota that Franklin is a shell of his former self.
They are all iconic greats, regardless of their last 12-24 months. When they retired (in Jordan and Lockett’s case, for the second time), they knew they had nothing left to give.
On the balance of their form versus an unknown teenager’s ability, Riewoldt and Cotchin have something left to give, even if the petrol is running out, it’s not yet an empty tank.
The same applies to Travis Boak, Dyson Heppell, Isaac Smith, and Rory Sloane. The sub rule even allows for a Daniel Giansiracusa-style specialist veteran in every team, should that be an appealing philosophy
What’s critical is list managers avoid underestimating the value of veterans and overestimating the likelihood of a third round draftee succeeding.
Admittedly, Cotchin and Riewoldt may tail off over the next 10 weeks. They may get injured. If so, the decision may be easy for everyone.
If not, the Tigers should buck the trend set by other clubs (aside from Geelong… funny that). Having two older players on a list does not halt a rebuild unless you are committed to playing them irrespective of form.
As senior St Kilda officials conceded years later following the decisions to axe Montagna and Riewoldt in 2017, sometimes you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Riewolt may not be the player he was but its not only about replacing his playing ability there is his football smarts and on field leadership and mentoring of younger players that is valuable. They are not replaceable by a younger player.
Arges Tuft
Roar Rookie
:crying:
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Normie's mean little. It means your team got there...that's a team award. They've all been best-on-ground lots of times so being best is nothing unique.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
All are better than Cotchin. Most are ahead of or equal to Sidebottom. All are outstanding. Yeo? You can't possibly have seen him play and he isn't yet 30.
Stubags
Roar Rookie
For the west coast example it's more about them getting some value back, I'm not sure anyone is saying retire those blokes, rather trade them while they still have currency.
Stubags
Roar Rookie
The last 3-4 weeks have been about as good as any Cotch has produced, Jack is not what he was but still comfortably best 22, happy for them to make their own call at this time.
Stubags
Roar Rookie
Hear hear! Brent Harvey getting the axe from the Roos is one of the biggest crimes against footy. Could have nudged 500, was still elite when moved on against his will and how has Norf fared since?
Non Serviam
Roar Rookie
Shuey as a sub moving forward, ppl have forgotten how good Yeo is and still young. Gov and barrass will be fine. Ppl want to rip the soul out of clubs down the bottom but champion players close to retirement from middling to top sides, go back through recent history and look at what happens cultural wise to teams that gut the list, it's pretty bad. You're spot on don.
Non Serviam
Roar Rookie
And a norm smith
Arges Tuft
Roar Rookie
You would think WC wont move on all these 4 in one go anyway. Fyfe, Cotch, Pendles all are still playing well enough ATM. Once Sidebottom, Barrass, McGovern are fit again should be ok. Yeo and Shuey may have seen better days but WC dont have the luxury to move them on. You just cant compare any of them to Fyfe, Cotch, Pendles and Sidebottom can you?
Liam Cole
Roar Rookie
It’s a fair point Tom, but l doubt those guys would be happy if they were put in the reserves.
Kevo
Roar Rookie
Very solid article, the obvious proviso being those champions are willing to be dropped if necessary. You'd think Richmond would want to keep those 2 in particular around the club for as long as they can in any capacity. In Jack's case he's still a focal point in the absence of Lynch being injured and/or suspended. In Buddy's case it could be difficult to drop him, yet you get the feel Swans often look better without him and their young key forwards need exposure without Swans being overly Buddy centric. There does come a time to have a focus towards bringing in new blood and fresh legs and I think Mitchell has made the right call at Hawthorn. Pendles and Sidey continue to be hugely significant at Collingwood, and Pies would not be where they are without them. The talent in that Geelong reserves premiership team was insane. What an honour and great note for McGrath to finish on too. Can you also explain Pythagoras theorem of a² + b² = c² please Tom? I think it has something to do with Carlton's amazing capacity for meaningless statistics = still loses games.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Some of those players you added will go with natural attrition. Their trade value exists only in the minds of media folk. They are only of value if they are clear of injury and, if they are clear of injury, they are the most important players at WC. Early selections in each round will give them the additional youth they require. They have a lot of good youth now; they need the expertise of these older players to bring them through. No mass exodus required (of players or coach)...just like they're not needed at Richmond.
Tom Morris
Expert
Fair question Don! I don't think I said they should all be moved on. Where did I write that? It's all about balance though with list management. Don't move all of those Eagles players on, but between Nic Nat, McGovern, Yeo, Shuey, Gaff and Darling - see if you can get a draft pick or two and keep the others for sure. My point is, at the moment most list management strategies are too heavily weighted to the future. West Coast's has been too heavily weighted towards the present. A happy medium is what's required.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
3 All Australians.
Arges Tuft
Roar Rookie
Thats because Barrass, McGovern, Yeo and Shuey arnt Fyfe,Cotch, Pendles or Sidebottom!
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
It's a no-brainer to keep performing, experienced leaders. Freo's relegation of Nat Fyfe to mainly an outside support role has cost them dearly. When he goes in, Freo's little stars grow another leg. The Pies continue to trust Pendlebury and Sidebottom. Boak keeps Port's young guns on track. Lachie Neale is essential for Ashcroft, Bailey, Fletcher... What is strange, however, is that this same author last week suggested experienced stars at WC like Barrass, McGovern, Yeo and Shuey should be moved on. Only Shuey is an injury question there. Does this valuing of experience not apply to WC?
Tiger Toon
Roar Rookie
I tend to agree with this mindset - champion players who've given incredible service for a long time to the club should be able to call time on their own careers. I'd also argue there is potentially a risk to the culture and fabric of a club at discarding a champion player in a messy or poorly handled fashion. Yes, football is a results based business but what kind of message does it send to the younger players at the club that no matter how good you are, how loyal you are or how much you've given the club, you can just as quickly be sent to the proverbial glue factory. Much is asked of players, it's perhaps only fair clubs be willing to give back (one for all, all for one). Fortunately, we seem to have good people, structures and relationships in place at the club to help navigate these tricky waters. As for Cotchin and Riewoldt, both are showing there is a bit of life left in the tank. We've been pretty fortunate to have not gone down this route often with our ageing premiership stars. Most seem to have retired on their own accord or had the issue forced by injury (Lambo). Probably the only notable one who wanted to go around again but didn't get the chance to (that I can recall) was Houli - but we were blessed in having Short and Baker down back who were already productive players at the level as well as a recently redeployed Rioli to help provide Houli's trademark run and carry rebound. I personally struggle to envision a Richmond without them so naturally hope they can keep going as long as possible. Yes they've lost a step of pace but for footy smarts, experience, leadership and mentoring, those are intangibles you can't easily find or replace in a new draftee and IMO there is value to having them around to help leave a legacy for the next generation that follows.
poider
Roar Rookie
Too early to be making a call. Let them enjoy what could be their last season. It's how they finish the year that is more crucial at this point.
Will Stefanson
Roar Rookie
Fully agree with this article.