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Pythagoras once said “the great science is to live happily in the present.”
When it comes to list management, too many football clubs scientifically and religiously live too deep in the future.
As St Kilda and Carlton know all too well, rebuilding with a longing stare into the distance carries no guarantees.
But this is not an article about the philosophical pros and cons of a rebuild. No, this is about AFL clubs retiring star players before their time is up. In other words, the greed for future stars drowning out the requirement for current A-listers on the wrong side of 30.
When Leigh Montagna, then 33, was told to pack his bags at the end of 2017, the view from the Saints was that Bailey Rice was one of a few ready to take his position at half-back.
Rice was delisted at the end of 2019.
Simultaneously, Nick Riewoldt was given his marching orders. Paddy McCartin needed space to develop, Riewoldt was told.
This is not a criticism of McCartin as his greatest problem has been out of his control, but even his biggest fans would concede he was never going to be Riewoldt. Why couldn’t the two co-exist for another 12 months?
Alan Richardson, who was part of the decision-making team that moved Montagna and Riewoldt on, lost his job midway through 2019. The push for youth materially impacted his win-loss.
At the end of 2020, Kade Simpson was delisted after 342 games at Carlton. The next generation of Blues would carry the club forward, he was told. They did not.
A year later, Nathan Jones was keen to play on at Melbourne. The Demons, who won the 2021 flag, politely retired their three-time best and fairest instead.
He may no longer have been in their best team, but his sheer work ethic, leadership and durability would have helped the Dees in 2022. And as a backup, Jones would have been perfect.
I’m not claiming these greats, and others, deserved another year solely because they were champions. The emotion largely has to be taken out of every situation.
No, I’m arguing clubs place far too much faith in low draft picks that data proves will most likely amount to nothing instead of trusting what they already have.
If you’re a first round draftee, you are less than a 50-50 chance to have a 150-game AFL career. Predictably, the strike-rate drops significantly after that.
It’s why I was in favour of Nat Fyfe re-signing for two years, Lance Franklin playing on in 2023, and would like to see at least one of Trent Cotchin or Jack Riewoldt play on.
Keeping Cotchin, who is 33 not 36, on Richmond’s list will not stifle development of younger players unless they allow it to.
It should also not soak up much-needed funds if he’s prepared to take a pay cut.
Cotchin, a Brownlow medallist and one of eight players to captain three premiership in football history, is playing fantastic football, revitalised by a shift back into the midfield.
Provided he’s prepared to be rested or dropped on form – just as Brisbane did with Daniel Rich and Jack Gunston – having a senior head around the club is surely beneficial for the Tigers as they embark on a new era.
Richmond has 45 senior list spots. Forty-five.
Surely they can spare one for a player who is highly credentialed in so many facets and still perform to a reasonable level.
Trent Cotchin celebrates a goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Riewoldt, who will turn 35 in October, is far from the player he was at his best, but he’s still contributing most weeks.
He may have no desire for a reduced VFL-centric role – which is fine – but if his mind is open, he could have a similar influence as Tim McGrath did at Geelong in 2002.
McGrath, by then well past his prime, agreed to stay on one more year to captain the Cats’ VFL outfit.
Little did he know he would skipper a flag with teammates such as Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman, James Kelly and Gary Ablett.
Riewoldt could remain as a quasi-coach who could fill holes in the senior team when required and lead in the VFL when not needed at the top level. It’s not a radical model in other sports, but it’s rarely used in the draft-focused AFL landscape.
Footy punters are too quick to say “he’s done” instead of “he’s not what he was, accept him for what he is and watch him play a role in the right circumstances.”
The other argument often put forward for players retiring slightly early is they deserve to go out on top.
This is utter romantic bulldust. I say eke every last ounce of skill and tenacity out of your body if you can, then call it quits.
Nobody cares Matthew Pavlich and Tony Lockett could hardly move in their last year, or Ricky Ponting’s reactions slowed in his twilight, or Michael Jordan played at the Washington Wizards.
Equally, nobody will care one iota that Franklin is a shell of his former self.
They are all iconic greats, regardless of their last 12-24 months. When they retired (in Jordan and Lockett’s case, for the second time), they knew they had nothing left to give.
On the balance of their form versus an unknown teenager’s ability, Riewoldt and Cotchin have something left to give, even if the petrol is running out, it’s not yet an empty tank.
The same applies to Travis Boak, Dyson Heppell, Isaac Smith, and Rory Sloane. The sub rule even allows for a Daniel Giansiracusa-style specialist veteran in every team, should that be an appealing philosophy
What’s critical is list managers avoid underestimating the value of veterans and overestimating the likelihood of a third round draftee succeeding.
Admittedly, Cotchin and Riewoldt may tail off over the next 10 weeks. They may get injured. If so, the decision may be easy for everyone.
If not, the Tigers should buck the trend set by other clubs (aside from Geelong… funny that). Having two older players on a list does not halt a rebuild unless you are committed to playing them irrespective of form.
As senior St Kilda officials conceded years later following the decisions to axe Montagna and Riewoldt in 2017, sometimes you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.
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