Who'll get spun out of the Aussie side for the fifth Ashes Test?

With a potential drought-breaking overseas Ashes win on the horizon, Australia’s men’s Test team selectors have only a handful of questions to solve in the last hours before the Fifth Test gets underway.

Prior to the Fourth Test the selectors could have taken more chances with their selections, as unlikely as that concept would appear. And even when they let David Warner maintain his spot opening the batting, despite a lacklustre recent run of form which arguably dates back three and a half years, the inclusion of both Mitch Marsh and Cameron Green was something of a gamble.

Australia’s men’s Test team selectors are not traditionally known for understanding the concept of a selection gamble.

But now that the Test series hangs precariously between an outright win and simply “retaining” the Ashes with an anticlimactic 2-2 scoreline, the opportunity for outside-the-box thinking has gone.

According to Cricket Australia’s Louis Cameron writing from London, both Mitchell Starc and Mitchell Marsh appear to have overcome niggles which had some thinking they wouldn’t make it to the final Ashes Test.

Specifically, Marsh, who “suffered from soreness at Manchester and was unable to bowl on day three” is not suffering from “an underlying injury” and is in fine fettle to maintain his spot in the team. Pat Cummins specifically told reporters that Marsh will be ready to bowl, giving the impression his inclusion in the side is already decided.

(Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

Similarly, Cummins said that Starc, who “landed awkwardly on his bowling shoulder last week while he was also carrying a niggle in his left leg”, is champing at the bit to play.

With Marsh and Starc both firming to play, and Pat Cummins telling Cricket Australia’s Andrew Ramsey he’s feeling fresher than he did four years ago, despite a long bowling campaign in England, the available bowling slots selectors have to fill narrows considerably.

Josh Hazlewood, who returned for the Fourth Test, was the pick of Australia’s bowlers in the one innings they had to bowl, picking up 5 wickets at an economy rate under 5. And while all of Australia’s bowlers took a pasting from the revved-up Bazball antics on display, Hazlewood nevertheless bowled the greatest number of overs for the least amount of runs between the three man pace attack.

It would be great to see Michael Neser finally get reward for his continued presence with the Ashes squad and his stellar county performances for Glamorgan. However, the fact that Hazlewood only had to bowl 27 overs during the whole of the Fourth Test makes it unlikely he’ll need a rest and would therefore be unlucky to be dropped for Neser.

As is the case with Australia’s selection conundrums of late, then, it is very hard to fit 13 players into an 11-man squad.

But there does need to be a change, because if the Fourth Test taught Australia anything was the need for a frontline spin bowler, necessitating the return of Todd Murphy.

Louis Cameron reported Murphy had been seen having “long conversations with captain Pat Cummins and key team strategist Dan Vettori at training in London on Tuesday, suggesting he is in line to return”.

Murphy lost his spot to Cameron Green in the Fourth Test, but as Cummins told reporters, “Nathan Lyon’s got a really good record here, so I think that’ll be part of the conversations.”

Who, then, makes way for Todd Murphy to make his way onto The Oval?

Australia’s middle-order batters are presumably all safe to one degree or another. Marnus Labuschagne returned to form in both innings of the Fourth Test, while Travis Head has barely put a foot wrong all series and Steve Smith, as vice captain to an increasingly tiring Pat Cummins, seems unlikely to be dropped.

That leaves three players to choose from – Australia’s two lacklustre openers, Usman Khawaja and David Warner, and Cameron Green, who has very quickly become Australia’s second all-rounder.

Khawaja’s position is virtually secured, having scores innings of 141, 65, 17, and 77 in the first two Tests, before faltering somewhat with his next four innings reaching 13, 43, 3, and 18.

(Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Which leaves the selectors with the choice between dropping Cameron Green or David Warner.

Much has already been said about Warner and it seems miraculous he has survived as long as he has in the Australian men’s Test team. Over the past 44 innings dating back to January 2020, Warner has only passed 50 seven times – including his much-lauded 200 against South Africa in late 2022.

In his last five matches, the last four Ashes Tests and the ICC World Test Championship, Warner has scored 43, 1, 9, 36, 66, 25, 4, 1, 32, and 28. While Cameron Green has been only marginally better with the bat, his bowling could be even more vital at the end of a long campaign. This is made all the more important by his height, creating more bounce for batters to navigate and adding much needed differentiation to Australia’s seamers.

Not to mention the fact that Green’s fielding in the gully or lower-slip positions effectively counts as two and a half fielders, whereas Warner can barely be said to account for one fielder in first slip. (This is a tall and short joke. Warner’s a brilliant first slipper.)

The choices seem obvious from afar, but obvious selections have rarely been Australia’s go-to methodology. Will Warner continue to be held aloft on a self-aggrandising retirement tour? Or will performance finally outweigh the ‘old boy’s club’ mentality of Australia’s men’s Test team?

We won’t have long to wait to find out.