With match day 3 at the Women’s World Cup upon us, let’s bust out the calculators to determine how each side that still has a pulse can progress to the round of 16.
The hierarchy of tiebreakers, if two or more sides are even on points, is as follows: goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head results.
The equation is simple for the Matildas: barring Nigeria suffering an unlikely defeat to already eliminated Ireland, Tony Gustavsson’s side will need to beat Canada at AAMI Park on Monday to qualify for the knockout stages.
A draw will be enough for Australia to go through in the unlikely event Nigeria lose to Ireland, and the Matildas finish with a better goal difference than the Super Falcons.
We know the Swede will have Sam Kerr at his disposal but she is still not fully fit, and may not start the all but must-win fixture.
Group A
New Zealand vs Switzerland (5pm Sunday)
Norway vs Philippines (5pm Sunday)
Standings: Switzerland 4, New Zealand 3, Philippines 3, Norway 1
Next stage: 1st Group A plays 2nd Group C, 2nd Group A plays 1st Group C
Scenarios: A win for co-hosts New Zealand will seal their first-ever round of 16 appearance in a Women’s World Cup, however should they go down to Switzerland or draw, a Philippines or Norway win will send them packing.
Switzerland can seal top spot in Group A with a victory over the Football Ferns, but can still be eliminated if they go down to the co-hosts and Philippines win, or if Norway claim three points and overcome their goal difference disadvantage.
That Philippines-Norway tie is must-win for Norway, while Philippines will go through with a draw, depending on goal difference.
Group B
Australia vs Canada (8pm Monday)
Nigeria vs Ireland (8pm Monday)
Standings: Nigeria 4, Canada 4, Australia 3, Ireland 0
Next stage: 1st Group B plays 2nd Group D, 2nd Group B plays 1st Group D
The Matildas must beat Canada to progress, unless they eke out a draw and Nigeria lose to Ireland by enough goals to tilt the goal difference equation in Australia’s favour.
A Nigerian win will likely see them finish at the summit of Group B, depending on goal difference, while Beverly Priestman’s side will qualify for the next stage with a draw in their final group stage match.
Ireland have already been eliminated.
Group C
Japan vs Spain (5pm Monday)
Costa Rica vs Zambia (5pm Monday)
Standings: Spain 6, Jamaica 6, Costa Rica 0, Zambia 0
Next stage: 1st Group C plays 2nd Group A, 2nd Group C plays 1st Group A
Scenarios: Group C is an easy one for the arithmetically challenged, like myself: Japan versus Spain is a shootout for top spot with both sides already qualified for the knockout rounds. A stalemate in Wellington will see Spain top the group.
Costa Rica and Zambia have already been eliminated from contention.
Group D
England vs China (9pm Tuesday)
Denmark vs Haiti (9pm Tuesday)
Standings: England 6, Denmark 3, China 3, Haiti 0
Next stage: 1st Group D plays 2nd Group B, 2nd Group D plays 1st Group B
Scenarios: It’s hard to see anything but a win for the Lionesses which will see Sarina Wiegman’s women top Group D. Denmark need to win to secure their place in the next round, while a draw will be enough unless China can cause a huge boilover.
The two sides progressing from this group will meet the two from Australia’s pool, Group B, meaning the Matildas will most likely play Denmark in the round of 16 if Tony Gustavsson’s side can win in Melbourne on Monday.
Mary Fowler celebrates scoring a goal. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Haiti can only progress with a win over Denmark, assuming England defeat China.
Group E
United States vs Portugal (5pm Tuesday)
Netherlands vs Vietnam (5pm Tuesday)
Standings: United States 4, Netherlands 4, Portugal 3, Vietnam 0
Next stage: 1st Group E plays 2nd Group G, 2nd Group E plays 1st Group G
Scenarios: A Netherlands victory over Vietnam is the most likely result from that clash, which would leave the Dutch side on 7 points. They will be looking to not only win the match, but put pressure on the United States with a big win to pad their goal difference.
United States will qualify with a draw, while if Portugal can cause a big upset at Eden Park they will go through to the knockout stage, sending the two-time defending champions packing.
Vietnam have already been eliminated.
Group F
France vs Panama (8pm Wednesday)
Brazil vs Jamaica (8pm Wednesday)
Standings: France 4, Jamaica 4, Brazil 3, Panama 0
Next stage: 1st Group F plays 2nd Group H, 2nd Group F plays 1st Group H
Scenarios: Jamaica have put themselves in a good position in Group F, needing only a draw against Brazil to progress, while it is a must-win clash for the silky Brazilians: anything less than three points will see a disastrous exit from the tournament.
France will more than likely top Group F with a triumph over Panama in Sydney, who have already been eliminated.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
Group G
Argentina vs Sweden (5pm Wednesday)
Italy vs South Africa (5pm Wednesday)
Standings: Sweden 6, Italy 3, South Africa 1, Argentina 1
Next stage: 1st Group G plays 2nd Group E, 2nd Group G plays 1st Group E
Scenarios: Sweden have already shored up first place in Group G with their insurmountable goal difference so they may take a more relaxed approach to their clash with Argentina, which the South Americans must win to stand any chance of progressing.
Italy must beat South Africa to ensure their place in the knockout stage, while a draw will be enough unless Argentina beat Sweden.
South Africa must beat Italy to progress – a draw will not be enough.
Group H
Germany vs South Korea (8pm Thursday)
Morocco vs Colombia (8pm Thursday)
Standings: Colombia 6, Germany 3, Morocco 3, South Korea 0
Next stage: 1st Group H plays 2nd Group F, 2nd Group H plays 1st Group F
Scenarios: Colombia need only a draw to top Group H, while their opponents will require all three points and be hoping for a draw or very improbable South Korean triumph in the other match.
Germany require a win to guarantee their spot in the next round, but will still progress even if they lose and Colombia defeat Morocco as expected.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Exactly. Really, the only mathematically safe option for Australia is to win. A draw only gives them a 30% chance of progressing. There are so many variables that must be met for Australia to proceed through on a draw. And a 0-0 draw sees the outcomes drop to 8%.
At work
Roar Rookie
This is where the excitement all starts to ramp up. While I'd love to see USA get knocked out, they're also good for interest later in the tournament, where it would be great to see them lose.
Garry
Roar Rookie
Not in my opinion..took VAR to decide a sliver of Wilkinson s head was offside
At work
Roar Rookie
Some very important details are lacking here... 'The Matildas must beat Canada to progress, unless they eke out a draw and Nigeria lose to Ireland by enough goals to tilt the goal difference equation in Australia’s favour.' I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, that if Australia draw with Canada then a win by Ireland by 2 goals or more will be enough. Or if Ireland win by 1 goal then it goes to goals scored and Australia will need to have more total goals than Nigeria
David Shilovsky
Expert
My bad. Still, destiny was in their own hands today, at a home World Cup, and couldn’t get it done. Trust me, I’ve had much, much harsher words for our own team.
Grem
Roar Rookie
Such a shame they didn’t get a draw against The Philippines. Was that an offside goal that would have made it 1-1?
Garry
Roar Rookie
First they had 3 points going into Swiss game Second I’ve just got back from the game and they created much more chances than the Swiss but yes lacked finishing quality ..something Australia seems to lack also atm :laughing: Third the Swiss seemed to lack real quality too and panicked a lot at the back
David Shilovsky
Expert
Real lack of quality in that side, unfortunately. Set themselves up well with four points in the first two games but the Swiss were always going to be a difficult task.
Brendan
Roar Pro
Oh New Zealand… That’s not ideal for the co-hosts.
David Shilovsky
Expert
Come on, mate, Alanna Kennedy is a natural No.9. You make a good point, but conversely if Kerr starts then hobbles off that is a huge mental blow potentially early on. Twenty-four hours to go, let's see what he does.
liquorbox_
Roar Rookie
"We know the Swede will have Sam Kerr at his disposal but she is still not fully fit, and may not start the all but must-win fixture." She has to start, if there is a chance she will break down it is better to lose her and bring on Fowler can then play the remainder of the match rather than start Fowler and replace her with Kerr who then breaks down and leave us without a striking option for the rest of the game.