The heat is on the Rabbitohs to reverse their late-season form slump or they could go from title contenders to missing the finals altogether.
With three rounds left, South Sydney are clinging to eighth spot and even though they have a bye in the penultimate round they are no guarantee of winning either of their remaining matches away to the streaking Knights and their traditional derby with the Roosters on the final Friday night of the season.
With the Sharks hosting Canberra in the last match of round 27, the makeup of the top eight will not be known until the final fixture of the regular season.
Souths have been major disappointments over the past month despite getting all their representative stars back on deck with comprehensive losses to Brisbane and Cronulla punctuated by unconvincing wins over the bottom two sides, Wests Tigers and St George Illawarra.
The seventh-placed Knights have won six on the trot and although halfback Jackson Hastings is likely to be out with an ankle injury, they can almost secure a playoff berth if they account for the Bunnies in front of what will be a bumper crowd at McDonald Jones Stadium on Sunday.
While no specific spot has been locked in as yet, Penrith and Brisbane are all but certain to finish as the top two teams unless the Broncos suffer two heavy losses after their bye this week and the Warriors finish with three big wins.
(Photo by Michael Bradley/Getty Images)
Just seven competition points separate the next nine teams with the Titans and Dolphins dropping out of the playoff race following their limp losses on the weekend.
Round 25 features four matches with huge playoff implications for both teams – Thursday’s Cowboys vs Sharks clash at QCB Stadium, the Warriors vs Sea Eagles and Eels vs Roosters match-ups on Friday and the Knights’ joust with the Bunnies.
When it comes to who has the toughest run home based on a strength of schedule formula (calculating the combined competition points of your remaining opponents), Souths, Brisbane and the Warriors have the statistically easiest draw while Cronulla, Canberra and the Cowboys have the toughest road home among the playoff contenders.
Strength of schedule
| Rank | Team | Strength of schedule |
| 1 | Rabbitohs | 55 |
| 2 | Broncos | 62 |
| 3 | Warriors | 63 |
| 4 | Eels | 64 |
| 5 | Roosters | 66 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles | 66 |
| 7 | Tigers | 73 |
| 8 | Dolphins | 74 |
| 8 | Knights | 74 |
| 10 | Panthers | 76 |
| 10 | Storm | 76 |
| 12 | Bulldogs | 77 |
| 13 | Sharks | 87 |
| 14 | Raiders | 88 |
| 15 | Titans | 90 |
| 15 | Cowboys | 90 |
| 17 | Dragons | 95 |
Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final rounds of the regular season.
The run home for each team
1. Penrith (38 points, 16-5 record, +289 differential)
Run home: Titans (away), Eels (home), Cowboys (home).
Strength of schedule: 76 (10th easiest)
Predicted finish: The scary thing for the rest of the comp is that they were under-strength and below their best last week against a fired-up Manly desperate to keep their finals hopes alive and the Panthers still won relatively comfortably. They have quietly compiled a seven-game winning streak which is likely to hit double figures by the finals unless they rest stars in the last round again.
2. Brisbane (38 points, 17-5 record, +213 differential)
Run home: bye, Raiders (away), Storm (home).
Strength of schedule: 62 (2nd easiest)
Predicted finish: Could still technically drop out of second spot but very unlikely. Given the heavy Origin toll with players like Patrick Carrigan, Payne Haas and Reece Walsh at the tail end of an arduous season, Kevin Walters could look to give them a breather in the final round against Melbourne unless the Warriors are still within striking distance.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
3. Warriors (34 points, 14-7 record, +129 differential)
Run home: Sea Eagles (home), Dragons (home), Dolphins (away).
Strength of schedule: 63 (3rd easiest)
Predicted finish: They have tailed off a fraction the past couple of weeks and the return of Te Maire Martin from a long-term layoff with a broken leg could help reinvigorate the side before the playoffs. One more win and an improbable top-four spot will be secured.
4. Storm (32 points, 13-8 record, +127 differential)
Run home: Dragons (away), Titans (home), Broncos (away).
Strength of schedule: 76 (10th easiest)
Predicted finish: Melbourne proved they’re a class above fellow top-four aspirants Canberra on Sunday and it’s hard to see them losing two of their last three to fall into the sudden-death half of the playoff bracket.
5. Cronulla (30 points, 12-9 record, +110 differential)
Run home: Cowboys (away), Knights (away), Raiders (home).
Strength of schedule: 87 (13th easiest)
Predicted finish: The finals have started already for the Sharks with their three remaining games all having playoff implications for all teams concerned. Two tough road games over the next fortnight will define their season – if they win them both, they will have earned fifth spot heading into the final game of the year at home against Canberra, but if they lose away to the Cowboys and Knights, they don’t deserve to be in the finals.
6. Canberra (30 points, 12-9 record, -120 differential)
Run home: Bulldogs (home), Broncos (home), Sharks (away).
Strength of schedule: 88 (14th easiest)
Predicted finish: With the Knights, Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Roosters hot on their heels, the Raiders are still no guarantee of qualifying, particularly given their woeful points differential. They’ll beat the Dogs, probably, on current form but you wouldn’t back them to get the job done against Brisbane or the Sharks. Look like being this year’s Broncos and plummeting out of the playoffs in the home stretch.
The Raiders feel the sting of their heavy loss in Melbourne. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
7. Newcastle (29 points, 11-1-9 record, +110 differential)
Run home: Rabbitohs (home), Sharks (home), Dragons (away).
Strength of schedule: 74 (8th easiest)
Predicted finish: They’ve dodged a bullet with Jackson Hastings a chance to play if not this week then next after it looked like it was season over for the halfback when he was the victim of a hip-drop tackle on the weekend. Two home games against teams just above and below them on the ladder will make or break their season and after six straight wins, they’re well placed to win at least two of their last three to snare a spot in the post-season.
8. South Sydney (28 points, 12-10 record, +92 differential)
Run home: Knights (away), bye, Roosters (home).
Strength of schedule: 55 (Easiest)
Predicted finish: They’re looking very frustrated on the field at the moment and if not for a few slices of luck, they could have lost to the Dragons last Saturday. It is not inconceivable that they will lose to Newcastle and the Roosters either side of the bye but will probably jag one win to finish in the 6-8 ballpark.
(Photo by Emily Barker/Getty Images)
9. North Queensland (28 points, 11-10 record, +32 differential)
Run home: Sharks (home), Dolphins (away), Panthers (away).
Strength of schedule: 90 (15th easiest)
Predicted finish: Brisbane being hot on the heels for Penrith in the minor premiership race could work in the Cowboys’ favour. Both teams might not rest their stars in the final round if they want to chase the JJ Giltinan Shield and the extra prizemoney on offer for finishing first this year.
What is certain is the Cowboys can’t worry about that – if they don’t beat the Sharks at home this Thursday they can just about forget about the finals. It will be North Queensland or Canberra taking out the final spot in the eight and the Cowboys will only leapfrog them if they face a depleted Panthers line-up.
10. Parramatta (26 points, 11-11 record, +21 differential)
Run home: Roosters (home), Panthers (away), bye.
Strength of schedule: 64 (4th easiest)
Predicted finish: It’s all over for another year of awaiting the end of the Parramatta drought following their flogging in Brisbane and Mitchell Moses’ facial fracture. Will probably only accrue points from the bye here on out.
11. Roosters (26 points, 10-11 record, -84 differential)
Run home: Eels (away), Tigers (home), Rabbitohs (home).
Strength of schedule: 66 (5th easiest)
Predicted finish: They could very well win their final three matches but their poor for-and-against record puts them behind the eight ball. The Roosters would probably need the Cowboys and Knights to go winless for them to be any hope.
12. Manly (25 points, 9-1-11 record, -47 differential)
Run home: Warriors (away), Bulldogs (away), Tigers (home).
Strength of schedule: 66 (5th easiest)
Predicted finish: Mathematically a chance – if they upset the Warriors in Auckland this weekend they could very much hold up their end of the bargain with the Dogs and Tigers their remaining opponents but would need four teams to falter to have any chance of advancing past Round 27.
13. Gold Coast (22 points, 8-13 record, -83 differential)
Run home: Panthers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home).
Strength of schedule: 90 (15th easiest)
Predicted finish: Should Titans fans be worried that David Fifita now has a long-term deal? He tends to play better when he’s coming off contract and needing to impress. They will always get solid service from Tino Fa’asuamaleaui so his bumper deal is a no-brainer. Hopefully the Gold Coast show a bit more fight in the final few rounds than they did at Shark Park last Friday when they were supposedly fighting for their season.
(Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images)
14. Dolphins (22 points, 8-13 record, -110 differential)
Run home: Tigers (away), Cowboys (home), Warriors (home).
Strength of schedule: 74 (8th easiest)
Predicted finish: The lack of depth in this roster has come back to bite them as the season has worn on but on the flip side, they are ahead of schedule heading into next season when top-line talent like Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Jake Averillo will give them the touch of class they lack.
15. Canterbury (20 points, 7-14 record, -297 differential)
Run home: Raiders (away), Sea Eagles (home), Titans (away).
Strength of schedule: 77 (12th easiest)
Predicted finish: Abysmal effort in Newcastle on Sunday. When players come to a club for the dollars, you get teams like the 2023 Bulldogs. Rebuilding is a tricky process and having millions to spend in your salary cap doesn’t mean you will have success when you sign high-profile recruits.
16. St George Illawarra (16 points, 5-17 record, -157 differential)
Run home: Storm (home), Warriors (away), Knights (home).
Strength of schedule: 95 (17th easiest)
Predicted finish: An upset is coming – they have been unlucky three weeks in a row in narrow losses to Manly, Parramatta and South Sydney.
17. Wests Tigers (12 points, 3-18 record, -225 differential)
Run home: Dolphins (home), Roosters (away), Sea Eagles (away).
Strength of schedule: 73 (7th easiest)
Predicted finish: Any hope of avoiding a second straight wooden spoon rests on this Saturday’s opportunity at home to knock off a fading Dolphins outfit. They’ve been competitive and a trifle unfortunate with refereeing calls over the past four rounds but moral victories don’t appear on the official standings.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Caracratcus, I agree 1 win + bye should just get the Bunnies in the 8. I suspect they will lose on Sunday against an in-form Knights team in front of a full capacity stadium with partisan novocastrations. Souths will then have the bye to regroup and get ready for a finals-like, do-or-die battle against the Chooks. This will be their first game at home in months and with backs against the wall, they'll be up for it! It will (IMO) be the catalyst they need, Souths will beat the Chooks and this will lift them and give them impetus into the finals. It will be this last game of the season that gets them hardened for finals footy. Should they find their fire and form, they will then go deep into the finals.
jammel
Roar Rookie
Raiders would take that home final in week 1 vs Newcastle!! :)
Caractacus
Roar Rookie
For me Souths have to turn up against the Knights, they probably only need one win from their two games but if they only manage to limp into the eight it’ll just be postponing the inevitable because they won’t go any further, show some form in those games and who knows.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
I think it's more the nature/timing of the loss (pretty weak effort) when Dragoons and Tigers actually put in decent efforts. As far as the Fox presenters go, you can throw in a bit of 'get Gus' into the mix.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
NRL and the broadcasters will like the ratings from that...
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Unless Broncos falter and give them breathing space, I doubt Panthers will be keen on resting players, though it could be a benefit. They play Cows last and I see Cows as a major danger from the bottom of the 8. I don't think Panthers will want to go into the semis with a loss to the Cows. Broncos won't be too worried, they should finish 1st or second regardless.
Randy
Roar Rookie
Huge round coming up for the Sharks, Cowboys, Knights and Rabbitohs who all play each other. Knights meet the Rabbitohs the following week. Knights grabbing 5th and getting a home semi would be great for the club – will surely sell out. The Raiders vs Bulldogs game will be interesting, both teams backing up after a thrashing. If the Raiders lose then they got HUGE problems…
The Barry
Roar Guru
So I know it’s not the point of the article, but why do the Bulldogs get an absolute bake off the back of one loss, while the violins are out for the Tigers and Dragons? We’re two wins ahead of the Dragons and three ahead of the Tigers. We’ve only played them once each and have a 2-0 record (Dragons and Tigers have played each other twice) We’re only one win behind the Dolphins and Titans, so closer to them (at least on competition points) than the Tigers and Dragons Maybe Buzz Rothfield does set the course for rugby league reporting after all…
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
The top 4 (Pen, Bris, Mel and NZ) are all looking strong and worthy of the top 4 . The bottom 8 (most likely Rabbitohs, Raiders, Knights and +- Cows or Sharks) will slog it out, and based on the inconsistency of these team's performances over the season it's anyone's guess in what order they will end up.
Horses for Courses
Roar Rookie
Anyone notice that if the Souths lose to the Knights this weekend and Rooster win their next two it comes down to the winner of Souths vs Roosters game getting into the finals. I don't really like either of those teams but even I have to admit it would be like getting two grand finals this year.
The Barry
Roar Guru
With all games on the weekend going to the favourites, I can’t imagine much has changed with anyone’s ladder predictions I still have the Sharks, Souths, Cowboys and Raiders finishing on 32 with the Raiders missing out on +/- What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Panthers and Broncos, the minor premiership and potentially resting players in Round 27? Broncs have the bye this week, so avoiding injury to key personnel (like Reynolds) would be the only reason to rest anyone Panthers haven’t had a bye since Round 19 and despite being rested here and there, their players have had a big workload with World Cup, WCC and Origin I think this year has been more about winning the comp for the Panthers than the minor premiership (EG relatively slow start to NRL season) MP is a nice to have but I don’t think it means as much to the Panthers as it would the Broncs I don’t think they’ll change whatever plans they have to ensure it’s wrapped up
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Hey Paul, good to see you restarted the post and didn't rehash the old one with 148 posts... Yet you still have Melbourne (on the Storm schedule) facing Broncos at 'home' (being in Melbourne). :) might still be remembering the Covid days when Storm operated out of QLD. Penrith to finish on 44 and MP. Until Moses was injured I had Eels a chance of beating them, they seem to have the best success recently. They might not rest players considering the last game is Cows who could pose a real threat in the semis. Smarter to make sure they don't make it in easy by beating them. Broncos will finish 42/44 depending whether they risk playes in the event Cows roll Penrith. Storm won't be an easy game and they'll want to beat them as if they lose, they could face them again the following week. Warriors will finish 3rd unless they let Storm jump them at the end. They'll prefer to face Broncos methinks so they'll focus to the end. Storm will lock 4th unless one above falters. 5-7, Rabbit, Raider Knight 8&9, Sharks & Cows We'll see..
Horizon
Roar Rookie
The roosters poor points differential was significantly impacted by heavy losses to the Panthers. Three wins & a repeat of last year's 72 points on the hapless tigers may scrape them in.