The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions Round 23: Whose season is about to end one week early?

It’s officially retirement season in the AFL.

Across the country, the next two weeks are going to see a glut of greats take their final bow, with North Melbourne and Richmond farewelling Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin and Jack Ziebell all together at the MCG in what promises to be an emotional Saturday afternoon.

But the bigger focus might just be the host of teams still fighting for their season, with at least two and in all likelihood three veritable elimination finals taking place this weekend.

It’s almost certainly curtains for the losers of GWS and Essendon as well as Adelaide and Sydney as they fight to keep their finals hopes alive, while St Kilda and Geelong will lock horns knowing the Cats will likewise be cooked without a win, while the Saints might as well be given their chances of taking down Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 24 are slim at best.

In an already remarkable season, this promises to be the wildest, wackiest, and most vital of all. So who will take the chocolates and either keep themselves on track to September, or finish off on the highest of highs?

Tim Miller

Last week: 7

Collingwood, Richmond, Carlton, GWS, Geelong, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Port Adelaide

I’m counting exactly one game that doesn’t have major finals ramifications this weekend, and given that game is the farewell for three champions of the game, Round 23 is shaping as the most memorable of already the most unforgettable, crazy season of our lives.

Starting on Friday night, every logical part of my brain is screaming that Brisbane should be beating Collingwood: the game is at Marvel Stadium, the Pies are missing Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore and Nick Daicos, and the Lions have a top-two spot to play for while Collingwood are likely safe on top. But picking against the Pies has been a hazard for two seasons – and I learned that the hard why when I tipped Geelong to beat them last week. I won’t be making that mistake again.

Starting us off Saturday, Richmond should be knocking over North Melbourne in the Cotchin-Riewoldt-Ziebell retirement spectacular – perhaps of more interest is whether the Tigers desperately try to feed Trent Cotchin disposals and Jack Riewoldt goals. At the same time, Carlton have the closest thing to a dead live rubber we’ve got, given they’re just about assured of finals and Gold Coast can’t make it. Still, if anyone can stuff it up from here, it’s the Blues.

We get into the real stuff again at twilight, with GWS hosting Essendon in an August elimination final: the Bombers haven’t been playing well enough to tip them to beat any finals contender at home, never mind on the road. They’re in similar boat to St Kilda in facing an opponent below them on the ladder but heavy underdogs regardless, and while the Saints do have home ground advantage on Geelong, I’ve had them as a certainty for the eight all season long and still can’t see them missing.

The most fascinating game of the ground comes with Adelaide hosting Sydney, and this for me is the golden chance to back a proper upset in a round sure to provide one or two. Sure, the Crows have been formidable at home this year, and a win here combined with their last-round date with West Coast could just about lock them into a finals berth; but the Swans are red-hot at the moment, travel well as a rule, and I can see their varied forward line causing the Crows’ undermanned defence enough to kick a winning score.

On Sunday, I’m praying for the Bulldogs to give me a stress-free weekend and hand West Coast a pummelling; the heart says it won’t be that easy, but the head says the Eagles might be saving up their petrol tickets to try and farewell Shannon Hurn and Luke Shuey with a win next week.

Following up, it’s back to the interesting games: Melbourne become the latest team to test their finals calibre against the 16th-placed Hawthorn, whose form at the moment is certainly worthy of a September spot. Nevertheless, where the Hawks’ midfield obliterated Collingwood and the Bulldogs in the last fortnight, surely they won’t be able to do the same to Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca… right?

And to finish off the round, Port Adelaide have a real danger game, heading west to battle Fremantle. I’ve gone the Power here, but despite their strong win over GWS last week, I’m not quite convinced they’re all the way back, and this looms as a proper danger game with their top-two hopes on the line.

(Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 5

Brisbane, Richmond, Carlton, GWS, Geelong, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Port Adelaide

What a hectic final couple of weeks we can expect.

Most matches have something on the line and if they don’t, they’re causes for celebration, with the end of legendary careers coming to an end.

It starts off with a clash between the flag favourites and that fortuitous Brisbane team. It may come as a surprise to anyone reading this, but I’m leaning towards the Lions here. They play Marvel Stadium well, they’ve played the Magpies relatively well but most importantly, Collingwood is surely going to use this time to trial different things. With something to play for, it’d be disappointing for Brisbane if they don’t win.

Saturday’s earliest match will tug at the heartstrings and bring a tear to the eye. The Tigers aren’t playing well, but they’re saying farewell to two all-time greats in Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt. That should be enough to get it done.

Gold Coast’s directness is a danger to Carlton, but the Blues will welcome back a few stars in a bid to extend their winning streak into a third month. They’ll probably win, but it’s a danger game up north, before Damien Hardwick is announced as Suns coach.

Rarely do we get back-to-back weeks where the Saturday twilight game means so much, but the Giants and Bombers are playing for their seasons here. It’ll clash a bit with the third-place playoff for the Matildas, so make sure you have multiple screens. GWS’ defence should prove too good for the Bombers’ attack.

All of a sudden, the Saints are moving the ball quickly and look more structured. It’s a fair shift in gameplan and it’s come with so little time left in the season. A win here, though, and they’re playing in September.

But we have to go back to Round 13, 2010 for the last time the Saints had a win by more than 10 points against the Cats, with Geelong winning 12 of the last 16 fixtures between the two, plus a draw. It’s Geelong’s season on the line too, and they’ll show up.

Speaking of season on the line, it’s Adelaide against Sydney for a finals spot (you’d think), with the Swans facing a tough final game of the season against Melbourne. Fun fact: these two teams have played at Adelaide Oval once since 2017. The home team should have enough firepower.

Then we waltz across to the Sunday fixtures. The Bulldogs should get back on track against the Eagles and the Bont will be seeking three Brownlow votes on that day. There’ll be no resting players in that fixture.

Hawthorn’s really quite good and people are starting to catch on now that the results have started to flow through. The Demons will win this one, though, because they need to, and it’ll be done comfortably.

Finally, Port hasn’t seen much success in Perth, but this new look midfield should be suited to this particular ground and take care of Fremantle.

(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

Cameron Rose

Last week: 7

Brisbane, Richmond, Carlton, GWS, Geelong, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Port Adelaide

Let’s get the non-eight point games out of the way first: in the weekend’s one true dead rubber, Richmond say goodbye to Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt, while for North Melbourne, it’s sayonara Jack Ziebell. The Tigers have double the reason to win this one, and back at the MCG, they will.

The Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Melbourne and Port Adelaide all face teams outside the top eight, and I’m picking them all in that order of confidence. With their season on the line, it would be catastrophe if the Dogs go down to West Coast; Carlton are better than Gold Coast and if they can beat three top-four teams they should have no issues, even on the glitter strip; the Demons face a fired-up Hawthorn but have a midfield strong enough to avoid the pantsings Sam Mitchell’s men have dished out in their last two wins; while the Power have the toughest challenge of all, a trip to Perth to face Fremantle, but found their best form against GWS last week and should be too strong.

That leaves four games with huge finals permutations. Collingwood can seal up the minor premiership on Friday night against Brisbane, while for the Lions, winning would have a similar effect on their top-two chances. If the Lions win, they’ll have the inside running on not leaving the Gabba until the grand final, and with the Magpies smashed by injury, I’m expecting them to get home.

The equation is simple for GWS and Essendon: win, or it’s season over, given the percentage differential to the Western Bulldogs and the fact one of Adelaide and Sydney will also leapfrog the loser. Both have hugely tough outings in Round 24 as well, with the Bombers facing Collingwood and the Giants coming to Melbourne to battle Carlton; it’s likely neither will reach September from here, but the Giants are just plain better than the Dons and at home, should keep their season alive for one extra week.

The stakes are even higher for Adelaide and Sydney on Saturday night: given the Swans are on 46 points and the Crows have West Coast in the last round, the winner can almost guarantee themselves a finals berth. It’s perilous to pick against the Crows in Adelaide this year, and with so much at stake I won’t be doing so here – even if the Swans’ forward line dynamism could trouble a threadbare home defence.

Lastly, the most fascinating game of the round: the death-defying St Kilda and the hugely vulnerable Geelong. It’s certainly season over for the Cats if they lose this one, while for the Saints, unless they can knock over Brisbane at the Gabba next week, their fate will be similar. Everyone has basically written off the Saints for two months because of their final two fixtures, and while they’ve won most of the games they should have, they’ve hardly been impressive enough to back them against the reigning premiers, no matter that it’s at Marvel Stadium.

Jack Ziebell leads North Melbourne out before a match in 2019. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Last week: 6

Collingwood, Richmond, Carlton, GWS, Geelong, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Port Adelaide

Fourteen points was the combined winning margin for our Friday night duo last round, with first-placed Collingwood hosting second-placed Brisbane in a cracker. It’s convention (the Lions do indeed struggle away from home) versus the unexpected (nope, the Pies are not always perennially lucky with injuries). Collingwood isn’t fielding their best outfit – far from it – but they’re in their comfort zone, and I need all the tips I can get. 

The Tigers, sure to be buoyed by the final games of club stalwarts Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt, shouldn’t find the going particularly tough facing the Kangaroos in what’s sure to be an emotional afternoon. In the Sunshine State, the Suns’ 2023 is more or less running on fumes at the moment – that should allow a splendid Carlton outfit to secure an eighth consecutive win.

Speaking of splendid, the Saints are decidedly not that, yet remain in sixth. It’s going to be tricky facing the Cats, who find themselves in unfamiliar territory outside the eight. As is the theme this weekend, both teams need the win for finals, and I have more trust in a rebounding Cats outfit.

When the Giants meet Essendon, a close game ensues. That’s been the script over the last few years, and with this being an elimination final in all but name, it’s sure to be accurate on Saturday evening, which makes picking a winner nigh on impossible. GWS’ form has been more encouraging, and I can’t in good conscience tip all of the Victorian big four teams in one column, so let’s go the hosts. 

For a team in worse form than their opponents, the Crows are relentlessly optimistic that finals are still viable – it’s just absolutely everything has to go their way.  And ‘absolutely everything’ includes conquering the Swans, who are in damn good form themselves. The Crows’ optimism is resonating with me, and at home, they’re a fine tip. 

The Dogs seem to be embracing an intriguing mentality of ‘who needs finals anyway’, something that is always a risk against the Eagles (ask the Bombers a fortnight ago). In saying that, this’ll be the Doggies and by some margin.

We get a little top-eight jockeying to finish the round. Port and Melbourne know third – or second if the Lions lose – is available. Neither would be comfortable with their games this weekend – the Power against Freo and the Dees hosting Hawthorn. The Hawks have conquered two premiership threats in two weeks, and Freo at Optus is trickier than it looks. I’m backing neither upset, but they’re not far-fetched.

Ollie Wines (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

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