If there’s one thing New Zealand rugby fans aren’t good at, it’s paying attention to what other teams and countries are doing. While you can find the odd rugby nerd in pubs and clubs around the place that can tell you about how things are going up north or even across the ditch, they’re very much the exception to the rule.
Rugby knowledge outside our own borders is pretty sparse, it’s unlikely you’d be able to find someone who could name the 14 clubs of the Top 14, let alone who is winning it.
But that attitude has changed a bit lately. New Zealanders are slowly coming around to the idea that the World Cup might not just solely be down to the All Blacks’ (admittedly very good) recent form, in fact the way other teams are going and just what they do to each other may well be the deciding factor in how where they finish.
Of course, there’s a reason why All Black fans are this way. As long as the team is winning, it doesn’t matter who they play and in what order. But while the side couldn’t have had a lead in, with four wins from four games, the events of the last week have definitely ripped the attention away from the All Blacks.
It’s really hard to know where to start, but the news that’s had the most direct impact on the All Blacks’ upcoming schedule is the news that Romain Ntamack is out of the tournament with injury.
Romain Ntamack is a star for France (Photo by John Berry/Getty Images)
Given how Ntamack embarrassed them the last time he played, not least because he’s far better looking than any of the current All Blacks, the immediate reaction was that France had been dealt a fairly hefty blow. However, likely replacement Mathieu Jalibert’s reputation makes this more of case similar to if the All Blacks lost Richie Mo’unga – they have options and it’s not exactly the end of the world.
At least not on paper. Ntamack’s absence may well cause a shift in the way France play, just enough for the in-form All Blacks to exploit.
Then there’s the indirect narratives, because while their World Cup pool is not exactly easy, who they end up playing in the next round is completely out of their hands.
Next door in Pool B, all the talk had been about whether the All Blacks would be playing either Ireland or the Springboks. Except no one told Scotland, who were pretty damn impressive in their recent two Test series against France.
Remember, this is a side that almost beat the All Blacks last November at Murrayfield before an inspired performance from the bench ensured that Ian Foster’s side didn’t create another chapter of unwanted history.
Can Scotland pull off a shock and send one of those sides packing? Because while it’s fair to say the dust will still be settling by the time they move into a quarter final that might be against the All Blacks. Given the way the other side of the draw is looking, it may well end up paving the way for an All Black run home to glory.
Speaking of dust settling, it’s unlikely anyone has got their heads around what Eddie Jones has done with the Wallabies, apart from Eddie Jones. He certainly seems to have taken the Melbourne post-match critique of Carter Gordon quite personally, stacking all his chips on the 22-year-old in a move that could seriously backfire if A. Gordon gets hurt or B. he can’t actually live up to the Jones-generated hype.
A Michael Hooper-less Wallabies certainly got eyebrows raising in New Zealand too. If that is the end of the fearless flanker’s Test career then he will go out as a man who earned the respect of All Black fans the hard way – as in, by playing his guts out every Bledisloe Cup game and still having to make more losing post-match speeches than a player of his calibre deserved.
He will be missed, but time will tell if Jones’ changing of the guard act does pay off.
The conventional thinking is that the All Blacks will run into England at some stage, but of course they created perhaps the biggest story of all this week when Owen Farrell’s shoulder and the RFU’s lawyers combined to set one of the biggest (although not unsurprising) double standards in Test rugby. Enough has been said about this in terms of just why Farrell is allowed to get away with playing like an NFL linebacker despite being a graduate of the prestigious World Rugby Tackle School™, but it should have Super Rugby bosses and refs seeing red as well.
The in-game review system stands as probably the best innovation that the game has come up with lately, a rare case of taking an idea from rugby league and improving it, not to mention one that has come from this part of the world and the Northern Hemisphere has actually admitted works.
Farrell’s tackling misadventure and Richard Smith’s crafty legal work – how did we get to a point where the lawyers’ names are common knowledge – are seriously undercutting something that’s primarily a step in the right direction. Despite the excitement over the World Cup, moves like this are in short supply in Test rugby.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Thats all he knows.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Two out of Boks, France, Ireland and Nz can conceivably be knocked here. Not "can conceivably"..... WILL....
Jacko
Roar Rookie
It is never an upset to lose vs the AB’s though. Tis when you are world champions.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Agreed! Boks have a tough pool, but will be battle hardened after a succession of tough “must win” matches. Or they will be knackered.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
To be fair if you ask an AB fan who they expect to win the WC they will pick NZ as first and SA as second and say that Ireland and France are classic peak to early for a WC and will go out in the quarters. Most probably have Oz and Arg to top their group and make the semis too. While people may say they respect Ireland and France they don't expect any non RC team to top their pool.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Much has been made of Tonga but they have been rubbish in the Pacific Cup and Fiji were shown by France to be rubbish. When you look at who France were not playing you see where Tonga are at. If Ireland, Scotland or South Africa are worried about Tonga (who have improved) they might as well book their tickets now to come home after the quarters. Show them respect but in a 3 way tie by how much they beat Tonga could matter.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Ntmack has been given more of a chance but not sure he is better than either of the other two 10s. People have debated if he is a better 12 than a 10. If Jailibert and Hastoy outside of Dupont will be just as good and will be less studied. Both have shown to be very good at test and club level.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
I know some nations have higher expectations than others but this WC cycle NZ has nearly a 50% win rate or less v Ireland, France and SA (if SA win this weekend). All 4 teams to make the quarters on that side will be glad to get through to the semis but going out in the quarters could well be going out to one of the finalists. We have yet to see if NZ can deal with teams who are aggressive at the breakdown and don't kick needlessly. SA having a player at 10 who doesn't play 10 made NZ look alot better.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Italy will be a big one for me. Not that they are likely to lose but how do NZ deal with the Italian defense at the breakdown. Italy are dogs at the breakdown and a repeat of the struggles on the field (not the scoreboard) from 2022 when if it wasn't for the maul they were in trouble. France can be hit and miss and losing it isn't the end of the World but if the lose that and need mauls/brute force to put Italy away then any of the teams coming out of Group B will deal with that all day.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
I think in NZ its 50/50 on people who know more about other nations v ones who don’t but that is always the way. It has surprised me how quickly everyone has deemed 2023 ABs A WC favourite (I think most teams like France and Ireland will say that too as it takes the pressure off them). Both Arg and SA are on a different player management to NZ and Oz as they had to work in player rests that the short rugby season of SRP does not involve. NZ beat an SA side that was playing their first game for many players and some of those players have appeared to be not as good as the players who took on Oz in Round 1. DMac was going to take the 10 shirt until he was rubbish against Oz much like he had been for the BaaBaas v English Club teams with organized defense. It remains to be seen if they have turned a corner but Wales have been rubbish as have England which were both used as reasons for improvement in Nov 2022. We will know better in a few weeks but NZ are now stuck with the problem do they play their front line players who have played since the RC finished and risk injury or do the players do in cold against France having not played for a month. Then some NZ fans think the NPC form should be good enough to get test call ups but every nation has them sadly who don’t get the difference between fully time professional players and players who get paid but don’t train year round.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Good comment. He has some skill alright. The difference I see, between him and Handre, is the running of the cutter and kicking, at this stage. He has struggled under the pump; I'd still prefer Pollard, if he can get fit...
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
What about you though, James?
Danny McGowan
Roar Rookie
Samr applies Jamie, most I know and talk to know and watch quite a bit of rugby from France and UK, and while not knowing all players , know a bloody good number.
Emery Ambrose
Roar Rookie
Yep definitely far more attention paid this year to there teams. Hard to tell on some of the games play in the NH summer series with teams changed often. But some good rugby being played. Ireland will have tough run out of there pool into the QF. ABs and FRA are a certain for QF and the ABs will take it game by game. The other 3 pools could potentially have some upsets, I like Scotland, Japan, Fiji and Georgia chances for an upset this year.
Phil Kearns Love Child
Roar Rookie
I'm confident we will make the final v FRA, and without their best 10 playing we have a good chance.
Phil Kearns Love Child
Roar Rookie
When you're leading the pack, you don't need to look behind.
Bluffboy
Roar Rookie
:laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
Bluffboy
Roar Rookie
:laughing: :laughing: :laughing: I hope so. Good luck for the tournament :thumbup:
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Richard loe
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Taking our jobs is one thing but I draw the line at touching our woman...well the thin ones anyway.