Will North Melbourne rue beating the Gold Coast Suns to gift West Coast the grand prize of pick 1 in this year’s draft?
The answer to this question will only be solved down the track when the crop of this year’s draft fully develops.
What we do know, though, is Victorian youngster Harley Reid has been praised for being the next Dustin Martin-type operator. Every team in the competition are looking for a new explosive midfielder who can go in centre bounces and move up forward.
After dominating the NAB League and under-18 championships, Reid has already played two appearances for Carlton’s and Essendon’s VFL sides. He slotted seamlessly against men, being one of the best players on the ground for Essendon with 23 disposals and seven tackles.
The 18-year-old is certainly one player AFL recruiters would dream of drafting and would definitely give anything for the type of calibre he brings to the table.
Of course, not every time does a No.1 pick become the superstar player they are expected to be. Tom Boyd, Jonathan Patton, Tom Scully and Jack Watts are perfect examples of this, where the pressure mantled on a special number affects a player’s performance.
But there are some players who thrive on the pressure and exert confidence from the moment they head into those doors. Over the years we have heard talented prospects compare themselves to elite AFL players and acquire the self-belief and confidence you need to become the next superstar.
So, was the one extra win worth it to lose a generational talent? Tanking doesn’t seem like the right word for it because when the ball is bounced nothing should be done to alter the player’s efforts.
But would it have been in the best interests of their future for just one match for North to lose, with the club already enduring a disastrous season? The difference between two or three wins for the season after losing 20 games in a row doesn’t seem astronomical.
Giving the young North players in the reserves a game for the last game of the season where not much is to gain would certainly not be the worst idea.
It would have been great for the morale of the group to finish their season on a good note, however, it is hard to believe that come March next year the group would feel good about the upcoming season due to a Round 24 win against the 15th-placed Suns.
(Photo by Steve Bell/Getty Images)
The argument against North losing the game being a bad idea is the previous history of the Melbourne Demons, who were alleged to have tanked during some games under Dean Bailey’s tenure.
In reality, their alleged strategy resulted in the club trying to get out of a hole they put themselves in for several years. The rut the Melbourne Football Club were in wasn’t helped by the poor drafting during those years of getting high draft picks, though.
Drafting Jack Watts at pick 1 and Sam Blease pick 17 as a priority pick in 2008 to the following year where they earned the No.1 pick from a priority pick, drafting Tom Scully and picking Jack Trengove for pick 2. They simply didn’t get these picks right.
North’s mediocrity can’t get any worse from a team who have been sub-AFL standard, finishing bottom four in their last four seasons. Maybe leaders like Luke Davies-Uniacke, who suffered an injury surfing during the season, need to lift their game instead. This clearly emphasises the absence of standards North Melbourne has lost over the years.
North might get their wish anyway with the Eagles interested in poaching local talent Dan Curtin for their pick 1. Either way, Harley Reid is no doubt the pick of the crop in 2023.
Harley Reid in action during the 2023 U18 Boys Championships. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
There are many draft models the AFL could adopt, including the BBL draft system where the bottom-placed side would have a 50 per cent chance of winning pick 1 but no guarantee. This would remove all the grey areas around the issue of tanking and reduce exploitation.
Will the Round 24 victory turn out to be the best thing that has ever happened for the club since ’99, or will it be a bitter pill to swallow? North Melbourne fans, hold your breath.
WestraliaForever
Roar Rookie
That’s a fair point. I think we’re differing on the importance of “mindset”. If you look at someone like Jack Watts, he was gifted player but probably never stood a chance after being told winning wasn’t everything. The sacrifice, the pain, the intensity, all comes with putting winning above most things. I see Sam Mitchell as the epitome of this mindset!
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Never tank. The footy world is filled with high draft picks who, for whatever reason, were unable to live up to expectations. Building a culture where attempting to win at any point, no matter what the situation, is worth far more than a higher draft pick
Coen
Roar Rookie
I personally agree hes not worth that but that's how the system works. Why Melbourne got pick 3 for Frawley while Hawks get 19 for Buddy.
Kevo
Roar Rookie
The number of wins is pretty much irrelevant. It's the integrity or lack of it, and motives, that will have a greater influence on the future.
Liam Cole
Roar Rookie
We will find out the importance of winning three games instead of two in years to come.
Liam Cole
Roar Rookie
Exactly Melbourne messed their picks and chose to draft runners instead of footballers. If the Tigers didn’t have Dusty they wouldn’t of been that successful.
Liam Cole
Roar Rookie
I think to compare Collingwood from a couple years ago to these two teams is not a great example. I’m just posing the question of was it really important to beat the 15th place Gold Coast suns to miss out on a generational talent.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
I know where you’re going with this but I agree. Blues had not had a spoon for 105 years which was a source of pride. Pathetic embarrassment last 20 years.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
McKay is not worth pick 3, ever. 12...?
WestraliaForever
Roar Rookie
Since 1992, Drew Banfield (WCE), Luke Hodge (Hawthorn), Des Headland (Lions) and Tom Boyd (at the bulldogs) are the only number 1s to have a premiership. It’s about the team; not one star. Dustin was “just” a very good player until the Tigers sorted themselves out via good leadership; then he became truly elite – and he was picked 3 after Tom Scully and Trengrove… sheesh!!! Joel Selwood was 6 – after Bryce Gibbs and Scott Gumbleton (who?!)
WestraliaForever
Roar Rookie
As I said in a previous article, North and Eagles made entirely the right decision. Tanking is not acceptable for any team that wants to get off the bottom; it devastates mindset. Losing is never acceptable. And as Clarko observed, how many number 1s have ever played in a premiership? Three or four in last 30? Most top teams are peppered with a couple of elite players, a couple of very good players and then a strong bunch of role players. North is developing that group now & should feel confidence. North and Eagles were improving at the back end. Everyone goes through phases - weren’t the pies third bottom a few years ago? Geelong won a premiership and just lost it this year (old and tired and need a refresh), but they’ll be back. My Eagles messed up a lot of decisions over the last few years & we’re now paying the price. But the club and coach will be fine. North too. I’d rather get smacked every week than ever have my club tell its players to lose!
nics
Roar Rookie
I agree – we should bring that rule in once every team has hit an arbitrary amount- let’s say 5 spoons to match some teams in the AFL era? Wouldn’t be fair to shut the stable door too early ????
Kevo
Roar Rookie
Tanking has been a media beat up this year, and is not really worthy of yet another article. Clubs have learnt from the disastrous results of the Dees and the Blues to see the cliff waiting at the edge of a proactive culture of failure, and know that culture is the key and trumps draft picks. North made the right call and will reap the benefits.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
What to make of the Eagles beating North, losing to Essendon by a point and beating the Dogs, all in the last five rounds? Getting players on the field,who are playing in position, have match fitness with team strength around them makes a world of :shocked: difference. The premise of tanking implies moral turpitude,and I'm not up for that. Losing close games because you've planned for it, pfft.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Yes but clubs have done it in the past.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Really dislike the automatic reward of first pick for the bottom team. Bring in a lottery for the bottom 4 to win the first pick. Last 40% chance, second last 30%, third last 20%, fourth last 10%. Just do it AFL and put an end to the temptation. Winning the wooden spoon should be an embarrassment that every club wants to avoid.
Coen
Roar Rookie
Why do we need to adopt a model of lottery picks for bottom placed sides to "remove all the grays areas around the issue of tanking and reduce exploitation" when it is evident that North and West Coast both preferred winning to tanking. The only club you could claim tanked was Geelong, which surprisingly no one seemed to care about and could've impacted the finals, yet North is under scrutiny for winning a game of footy. Pick 2, and eventually probably 3 for McKay is a damn good draft hand. Last year that was Sheezel and Wardlaw. One player does not make a club, and even if Reid is the next Martin, we've got LDU anyway, who will likely have 6 brownlow votes in the first two games before getting injured. In fact, before his injury, from the game against Collingwood in 2022 to that point, Champion Data had him as one of the most damaging, impactful players in the league. So we aren't missing that key damaging midfielder who accumulates clearances and score involvements. He's young and numbers aren't unlike Petracca at his age. A few healthy seasons and he'll be multiple all-australian. Add in a bloke who kicked 70 goals in a 3 win season with no one else around him to warrant defence, and you've got another great of the game looming. It is no coincidence that our best game of the season came with Ziebell, Hall and McDonald out of the side, who constantly turn the ball over and play poor defence. Fortunately, two of them will never play again, and this will incontrovertibly boost inside 50s and more scoring opportunities. If Ziebell doesn't receive some B&F votes from Essendon for his efforts to get them the win in the two games against us, I'll be disappointed. Tanking is never a respectable option and a winning culture, even if it's the one final game, is exponentially more impactful for players confidence. Footy is a game of momentum, and entering a season on a 21 losing streak is hardly a confidence booster. North will be alright, a couple more seasons of dwelling near the bottom and the players will begin to be in the ripe age and games played to be a threat come September.
Epochery
Roar Rookie
Disastrous season? I can't agree with you there. North made great improvements. Won one more game than 2022. Doesn't sound much but if you consider these 2 stats. In 2022 we lost 1 game by less than 10 points 2023 it was 5, 2022 we lost 17 by more than 30 points, 2022 it waa 7. Had north been able to put out their best 22 consistently it would have been even better. LDU missed around 8 games and when he played was generally our best player. Mackay, logue, comben, wardlaw, zurhaar, simpkin, CCJ, Powell all missed a varying number of games and there was not one match where north played their best team. But I guess an outsider wouldn't know that.