Well, well, fellow Roarers, it appears that the Land Down Under may need a bit of a chin-up after our fresh-faced, rosy-cheeked youthful band of rugby heroes appear to have bowed out a wee bit earlier than anticipated.
But frette not, dear hommes et femmes, for I have devised a list of secondary activities to keep our spirits high during the remainder of this joyeux tournament.
Before proceeding, let’s acknowledge that the Wallabies still hold the record for the largest winning margin in a final – 23 pts against England in 1999. They were also part of the highest-scoring final in Cup history – the 17-34 loss to New Zealand in 2015. Australia, if they do miss the knock-out phase this year, will retain its solid 63 per cent post-pool winning record, currently only behind South Africa and New Zealand.
So it’s not all doom and gloom, mate!
All events and achievements listed below are based on previous ‘knock-out’ phase results from previous years.
Since 1987, only five countries have actually made a World Cup final.
Along with South Africa, New Zealand, Australia and England, the French have made it to the final previously – but they have the dubious honour of making it three times and always leaving with a soured baguette.
On the flip side, France has also had the most total losses (nine) in the knock-out phases of previous World Cups and has been involved in the equal lowest-scoring knockout game (8-7 against New Zealand in the 2011 final – matched only by the dour 9-6 win by England over Scotland in 1991).
France, oh la la! Let’s get behind the hosts this year as they strive to finally get the chocolats.
As a country that has always embraced the underdog, let’s not forget the lowest-ranked team to ever grace the knock-out phase: Canada in 1987.
This year we have the Samoans and the Japanese still in the mix.
And of course the flying Fijians, who are making a genuine run for a semi-final berth.
From there? Who knows!
In an area that Australia under Eddie Jones appears determined to improve, let us tip our Akubras to the teams that have managed to best diversify in World Cups past and lose to multiple different countries.
Specifically, we have Ireland and Wales, along with England and France who have all managed to lose to five different nations during previous campaigns. Look at this as a game within the game of “how many countries can we lose to?!”
Keep a keen eye out for historical oddities, much like Italy’s astounding achievement.
They hold the prestigious title of being the team with the highest average world rugby rankings since 2003 to never manage to graduate from their pool and reach the knock-out phase. Magnifico!
When your team departs – all is not lost! Jump onto a proven winner!’
Only eight countries have made it to the semi-finals in the past: South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, England, France, Argentina, Scotland, and Wales. They’re all at it again in 2023, though the Aussies are effectively out, and the Argies and Scots appear less likely to make it to the pointy end this year.
Only four countries have actually won the World Cup since its inception in 1987 – South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and England. Of these, only England has failed to do so more than once.
New Zealand boasts the most total wins in the knock-out phases (15) but South Africa have the best winning percentage at 73 per cent.
New Zealand hold the record for the biggest winning margin in the knockout stage – 49 points against… you guessed it, France in 2015. They also won the highest-scoring game to date, beating Scotland 48-30 in 1995.
This year’s number one ranked side Ireland have never won a knock-out match and historically should avoid France and Australia (no worries there mate!).
Our friends the French love and hate the Kiwis (they’re French) and should also avoid England.
South Africa historically pick on England a lot but can struggle against New Zealand and Australia.
New Zealand like losing most to Australia and France while they love beating Scotland and… France. Go figure.
Whoever you choose, switching to any of the proven achievers – other than Australia – will greatly improve your enjoyment of the latter stages of the tournament.
So, who’s most likely to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand will be ensuring that only two of their number survive the quarter-finals to stagger into the semis this year.
On the other side of the draw, England, Fiji and maybe now the Welsh appear strong contenders.
Mix into this the rapidly burgeoning injury tolls and it might be wise to expect the unexpected. Historically in the semi-finals, upsets are less likely; though nobody told the French in ’87 or again in ’99, or Stirling Mortlock in 2003.
After all, in the current world of rugby union with ample assistance from our comprehensive rulebook and the ever-increasing scrutiny of both on-field and off-field officials, anything can happen!
And it increasingly often does, often with a lovely touch of absurdity.
My prediction for 2023?
France. They’ve earned it.
Sentimental pick? Ireland.
My dream? Fiji.
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Wow… Fiji all but brought the Wallabies back into the tournament. That would have been a travesty. Now all of us Australian residents/citizens/ rugby tragics must officially make the jump or wallow in Eddie’s debacle. As a dual citizen, I must support NZ first and Southern hemipshere second. With Argentina and South Africa I have no issues. How good would Michael Cheika be feeling now? As for the Fijians – I hope they can drop the shackles and pressures of pool favouritism and channel their inner seven’s spirit and ROUT the Poms. But I fear that might not be how it transpires. Curious to hear who other Wallaby-tragics will be supporting?
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
And so it is now down to Argentina or Japan (I've gotta favour the Argies). And Fiji or Australia.... let's face it - barring the unthinkable it's Fiji. As for the two decided quarter finals - I think both could be decided on cards/TMO calls. I'm riding the AB's to dust Ireland on the back of history, and the Bokkies to dust the French in a penalty-fest. Either way, the winners of these quarter's will battle out the final. You have got to say this is in many ways the most "open" World Cup we have had! Cheers and good luck to all.... And may the the best, most disciplined, most experienced under pressure (yes Eddie... it counts a lot in World Cups) take the chocolats!
pm
Roar Rookie
Robbed by the ref against Wales, convincing winners against us, recent victors over England, world class players at several positions. More importantly, givers of a great players to other countries and clubs. Time for them to be receivers. Go Fiji. Semi-final looking very plausible. Hopefully more.
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Just wanted to see if a table would format .... failed.
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Team Played Won % Lost % Argentina 6 2 33% 4 67% Australia 19 12 63% 7 37% Canada 1 0 0% 1 100% England 17 10 59% 7 41% Fiji 2 0 0% 2 100% France 18 9 50% 9 50% Ireland 7 0 0% 7 100% Japan 1 0 0% 1 100% NZ 21 15 71% 6 29% Samoa 2 0 0% 2 100% Scotland 8 1 13% 7 88% South Africa 15 11 73% 4 27% Wales 9 3 33% 6 67% Table 1: Post pool play results 1987-2019 – probably most surprising is Ireland’s lack of success to date – with the quarter final draw, they are not getting any favours this year!
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Cheers to the editors for updating the title! and spelling it correctly! :laughing: :laughing:
piru
Roar Rookie
If I start supporting league there are bigger problems in my life
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Only if you were "dual world cup supporter Piru" - not if you revert to being "All Blacks supporter Piru". - hence non-binary. Of course if you support League you would be "indeterminate". ???? :silly:
piru
Roar Rookie
Wouldn't being dual make me binary?
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
So you are non-binary?
piru
Roar Rookie
See this is the advantage in being a dual citizen. Now that Aussie is out, I guess I will have to revert to "stereotypical All Blacks fan piru"
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Excellent choice Geoff !! - the quarter final will be a humdinger....
Geoff K
Roar Rookie
I'll be going for South Africa as i have many friends from there.
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Cheers Mz. So much angst at the moment... it's nice to remember that for some countries this year could be a watershed... The times they are a changin'? Here's hoping we get a cracker of a knockout phase....
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
Nice article, JotS. After Ireland, I will be wanting Fiji to do well. Easily the best of the three PN sides. Feel sorry for Tonga, who came with some hopes and have been hammered so far by the more powerful sides. Hope Japan get to the quarters. I think if France really open up their game they will be hard to beat. Ireland the most likely to roll them,I feel. The Irish coaching unit is very smart.
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Bula vinaka!
Hoy
Roar Guru
Bula.
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
Given the state of the Anzac's in the current tournament Rocky, having a Plan B appears to be a wise move. Still so much to enjoy...
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
One day Virgil, one day. Dare to dream...
JohnnyOnTheSpot
Roar Rookie
“Your complete guide to picking another RWC team to ride now the Wallabies are flambéd.” Perhaps a more appropriate article title? “Flambé” – a cooking procedure in which alcohol is added to a hot pan to create a burst of flames. Similar in so many ways to what is happening with Australian rugby supporters, journalists, and administrators this week. Cheers.