The incredible streak Collingwood must break to claim a Grand Final win

Many will ask whether Brisbane can stop Collingwood in the Grand Final on Saturday, but given the Lions have beaten the Pies six times in a row, perhaps it should be the other way around?

Four of those Brisbane wins between 2020-23 have been at the Gabba, yes, but two of them have come in Melbourne, in 2021 by a point with Zac Bailey kicking a goal after the siren, and this year by four goals in a high scoring Round 23 affair.

However, those wins were at Marvel Stadium. The last time these two teams clashed at the MCG was in 2017, when Brisbane finished last on the ladder with just five wins, and Collingwood five spots above them. 10 players from the Pies will line-up on Saturday, and seven from the Lions, with Daniel McStay having swapped sides in the meantime but sidelined through injury.

Daniel McStay and Nick Daicos. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Brisbane have somewhat famously only won one of their last 15 games there, dating back to 2015. Is their MCG hoodoo a real thing? Most likely it is nonsense.

For a start, between 2015-18, they only won 17 games anywhere, so their record at every venue was pathetic. That accounts for the first six of those losses.

They also play teams like Richmond and Melbourne there, who between them have four premierships and eight top four finishes during the time that the Lions have found it hard to win at the ‘G. Even still, they beat the Demons there in a semi-final just last year – if you’re going to break a hoodoo, what better place to do so than a final.

There is very little between the two teams when it comes to kicking goals and defending them. Brisbane ranked second in points for during the home and away rounds, with Collingwood fourth. The Pies had the stouter defence, ranked third to the Lions sixth. Last year, Brisbane was ranked 10th in points conceded. It had long been a glaring weakness, and a key reason why they couldn’t progress beyond the preliminary final stage.

Ultimately though, measuring points for and against, there is only two points a game separating the two teams. They both play an attacking brand of football and will get their chances to score.

The Brisbane key forwards in Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood have been judged as notoriously fickle in front of goal, while Jamie Elliott and Brody Mihocek have given the impression of being more accurate. Funnily enough, this year at least, Hipwood and Elliott have kicked goals at the same accuracy rate, while Daniher and Mihocek have been better than both.

The Lions do have more avenues to goal if the key players get shut down, which is often the case in a grand final. Tyson Stengle and Isaac Smith kicked four and three respectively for the Cats last year. It was Dustin Martin with four, rather than Riewoldt or Lynch, that won Richmond the 2020 grand final. Jack Graham kicked three for the Tigers in 2017 against Adelaide, and Liam Picken three for the Dogs in 2016.

Conor McKenna celebrates a goal. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Keep an eye out for the likes of Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Josh Daicos and Will Hoskin-Elliott to pop up. We saw Jasper Fletcher pop up with three for the Lions in the qualifying final against Port.

Sometimes a winning run going into a big final can be a disadvantage, and it’s not uncommon for the result from the previous meeting to be reversed. In the last two grand finals, Geelong and Melbourne beat Sydney and the Western Bulldogs respectively, despite having lost to them in their previous home and away encounter.

The winning team thinks they can just repeat what they did the first time, and it will be enough. Whereas the losing team knows they have to either change or refine things, or apply more focus to certain areas. A modification here, a fix there, a positional adjustment perhaps. All of a sudden, the dynamics change.

Grand finals should always be tough affairs, but this promises to be the most open one we have seen for a while. Both sides never shy away from taking the ball through the corridor if half an opportunity presents, and the team that executes their daring ball movement the best will control the momentum of the game.

Brisbane have been knocking on the door for a while now, with their fifth finals series in a row. They know how hard it is to even get to the grand final stage, let alone win it. Will that hunger be enough? It might just be.

Brisbane will be my tip, with the half backs Conor McKenna or Keidean Coleman to take out the Norm Smith after setting up scoring opportunities via their kicking and dash.