With the Wallabies done but for a miracle, the numbers in the three first games are illustrative of why the campaign failed.
The Experience Gap
Wales ran on the pristine pitch at Lyon with eleven players having Rugby World Cup knockout experience. All of those had won a knockout. Six of them played in do-or-die Lions matches. Fiji beat Australia with a team sporting eight prior World Cup participants. The Wallabies had six RWC veterans in this campaign; five by the time of the big contests.
Even the French, the team Eddie Jones’ apologists cite as a model, have more Cup experience than the Wallabies; South Africa has over fifteen, Argentina thirteen, England and New Zealand eleven. Scotland has nine RWC returners. Experience matters in life and in rugby’s biggest challenge.
What the Wallabies Did
Through the first three rounds, there was only one team that played wider than second receiver less than the Wallabies (3.6%): Romania (2.2%). Ireland did it six times more than Australia, New Zealand four times; even the pragmatic Springboks got it to Jesse Kriel twice as much as Jordan Petaia got it. Indeed, the Boks played wider than ten metres 59.1% of the time; the Wallabies ten percent less. Eddie Jones’ team was among the six tightest teams (they only went wide 6.6% of the time) along with Wales and Argentina.
The Wallabies have finished 26.6% of line breaks in a try, compared to leaders France (51.6%), Ireland (50%) and South Africa (49.9%). Even England, who by 2022 had lost the ability to score tries against anyone except Italy, have finished 45.9% of breaks with a try. Part of that is a low tackle evasion rate (20.9%), again in the bottom six teams with Namibia and Uruguay.
Instead, gainline was the focus with the Wallabies going into contact and winning 55% of collisions (top five, along with the All Blacks, Ireland, the Boks, and Italy). It was what happened next, after the second phase, which did not work. The Wallaby lineout, one horror show excluded, has functioned at 88.4% (top five, ahead of South Africa and England), but steered away from the middle (only 23.2% of throws went to the heart of the lineout; only Tonga and Uruguay were lower).
The Wallaby scrum has been serviceable: 94.5% success (top five) and a 22.2% penalty win rate (top four); better than the Boks. The maul has only harvested 14 metres a game (England’s won 26 a match; Wales 24). Tackling was poor, with the Wallabies’ success only better than Namibia, Romania, Tonga, Samoa, and Fiji. Exits were top five (92.6%) with 58% kicked and 42% carried out.
Who Did What?
Rob Valetini, Marika Koroibete, Tom Hooper and Mark Nawaqanitawase played all 240 minutes of the first three rounds. Two of them, Valetini and Nawaqanitawase, led the carry count (30) along with Samu Kerevi. Valetini carried 29 of 30 times into contact; Kerevi 28. They were the ruck setters, the targets; with Angus Bell (23 of 23 carries into contact). Nawaqanitawase was the most elusive heavy carrier (evading contact 7 times); Ben Donaldson was far less busy as a carrier but also was evasive (62.5% of the time he was not tackled with the ball).
LYON, FRANCE – SEPTEMBER 24: Mark Nawaqanitawase, Ben Donaldson and Marika Koroibete of Australia line up during the National Anthems prior to the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between Wales and Australia at Parc Olympique on September 24, 2023 in Lyon, France. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Jordan Petaia was the best of the Wallabies with ten or more carries at winning the gainline (93.8% of the time). Next best was Fraser McReight (83.3%). Richie Arnold attended 56 rucks but was ineffective 16% of the time: the only Wallabies less effective were three backs (Andrew Kellaway, Suli Vunivalu, and Kerevi).
Will Skelton got to 15 rucks before he was injured; effective at all 15. Most effective for volume: McReight (49 rucks; 96% effective). In the forwards, Nick Frost was particularly ineffective as a carrier (making the gainline only 42.9% of the time) and Koroibete suffered from not having a playmaking thirteen next to him, making the gainline less than half the time.
Tom Hooper attempted the most tackles (32) but was not convincing in force or success at this level. He likely needs more dynamism and learn to accelerate into contact. McReight and Valetini were the best busy tacklers (both well over 90%), with the big Brumby number eight dominant in 25.9% of his tackles. McReight worked hard, but had the same number of steals as Skelton in far more minutes.
Koroibete, Carter Gordon, and Petaia all missed far too many tackles; Hooper and Gordon were passive in their tackles (only 7 and 6 percent “dominant”). All of this led to just six pool table points and an early exit unless some shock saves the Wallabies.
With thirteen Tests on offer before the Lions visit, likely coaching changes, and a murderous trio of opponents in half of those Tests, there is little time to fix the issues, but the time to start is now.
Thank you to @OptaJonny of OptaAnalyst for the statistics in this article
Guzzle
Roar Rookie
Harry mate the Wallabies have been powderpuffs at the breakdown for at least 8 years.The only time they had a red hot go was when they played SA in Australia 3 times. They are weak. They are lazy. They are fearful. They do not want to get down and dirty at the BD. They all want to run with the ball mate.
Guzzle
Roar Rookie
And Poido who was 32.
Harry Jones
Expert
No worries! :happy:
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
Cheers! I re-read my comment and it read poorly - I really didn’t want to come across negatively. I appreciate how difficult it is collecting meaningful data with rugby (and business fwiw) and do think you’re going further than most. I’m 100% certain that keen analysts like yourself will soon have access to technology that will enable big leaps in the understanding of what is actually happening out there. Hopefully you’ll be gracious enough to pass these insights on to the Wallabies’ coaches, who are mostly still learning the sport of rugby, as well as the basics of how to use a laptop.
Harry Jones
Expert
With these stats in mind, I watched the Portugal match, and it was a bit grim.
sheek
Roar Guru
Thanks Harry Jones, I guess it's semantics. The Wallabies have "some" talent, but not enough to be successful on a consistent basis. And they certainly don't have the 6-7 world class players that make the difference between winning a major tournament or not.
sheek
Roar Guru
Savant, We're all peeing in the breeze. I hold out little hope RA has the wherewithal to solve its many issues. It's obvious what needs to be done. But as always, idealogy & self-interest will reign supreme. RA is a ship of fools heading for a reef. Or perhaps they've already found the reef, & are jumping into lifeboats!
crumbfingers
Roar Rookie
Interesting. Stats match the eye test for me. Richie Arnold hit rucks like waves breaking against rocks and both he and Frost lack that punch of test lock. Frost a perfect foil for Skelton and I guess Arnold in theory was too but it was a weird selection given the performances of Holloway/Neville and dare i say it Swain in the previous cycle. Tom Hooper excellent workrate and a big body but very rarely seems to have a big impact (save for his try in Dunedin). Attack looked exactly like the stats described - give it to Valentini, Kerevi then hit Bell or Nawaqanitawase coming back the other way and hope for the best. Well put together summary here Harry. Sadly i see there’s already an article proclaiming the need to sign Nathan Cleary (albeit on the back of a god-like performance in the premiership final) not sure how that addresses the lack of effective carriers, tacklers or attacking rucks from forwards, selections or the overall attacking and defensive strategies from coaching…
Harry Jones
Expert
No offence taken. I think these are valid approximations of rugby
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
Individual etric that I think may matter: - Time in tackle - Time on the ground - Linespeed - Kick chase Speed - % of occasions when player was in their designated position in defence/attack - Pass accuracy - Kick accuracy - Unforced errors - Ruck accuracy/effectiveness But I guess it mostly comes down to the plan/tactics - any metric how well a team is executing what is required would be ideal. I’m actually really keen on learning more about the data the good teams (not Australian obviously) use for their analysis.
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
Is it though? Does a stat like that explain much at all? Without context, a metric like your example, is more of an outcome than an insight, not unlike ‘linebreaks’ or ‘tries scored’. What really matters are metrics that explain the ‘why’ - what was happening that meant a team didn’t attack the ‘x’ channel? I’m pretty sure Ben Darwin stated exactly this on the Roar podcast. I don’t mean to be rude - I find your efforts to understand the game far better than 99% of the pack.
Guess
Roar Rookie
Mike88
Roar Rookie
Eddie must be incandescent that world rugby teams have not played as he has dictated rugby is now played. So much negativity boys running the ball. Eddie will need to wash all this running rugby off him. So, if I'm right, we did ok in early phase play but then lacked the inside backs to set it alight. Something that Quade Cooper just mightve provided. But, I'm delighted those numbers are going to change in our favour for the next four years leading to our huge success in 2027. I'm certain players have gained so much from this awful, negative experience and we will turn it into success just by willing it.
savant
Roar Rookie
Agreed. He’s gonna be a star. He’s only a kid starting out. He has a big future when he puts some meat on those big bones.
Guess
Roar Rookie
Exactly. Even when England was winning against wallabies I was glad wallabies don't play as ugly as them.. yet from all the coaches that stupid and incompetent McLennan had chosen a coach who suits Australian style the least
Guess
Roar Rookie
The score :silly:
Guess
Roar Rookie
They're trying to save their ss at this point. Any decent coach and chairman would've already resigned. They showed their true colours: just two self serving rats
Guess
Roar Rookie
I'm telling ya he is insane. We all waste time discussing stats and actions of insane person
Guess
Roar Rookie
Yeah people say this cause they don't want to admit to themselves they were being fooled by the clown :laughing:
Guess
Roar Rookie
It wasn’t a tactic it was lolesio. Foley was able to play 1st receiver just fine