Amid all the criticism that has been directed at the Australian selectors, one question hasn’t been raised too much – what if they’re right?
Their reluctance to end David Warner’s career early and their disregard for concerns about the ageing nature of the current team haven’t backfired as yet.
They managed to retain the Ashes despite Warner again failing to fire and even if the veteran opener struggles in the three-Test contest with Pakistan, it’s hard to see Australia not sweeping the series.
The selectors were lambasted for picking a World Cup squad containing just one frontline spinner in India, an extra batter after Ashton Agar was injured, ejecting Alex Carey early and sticking with a nucleus of multi-format players who looked tired early in the tournament after the Ashes. But they won it all.
No one in the Test team that will line up at Perth’s Optus Stadium on Thursday will be under 29, which raises questions about when fresh legs will be brought in to replenish the ranks.
With Steve Smith and Usman Khawaja saying they have no plans to retire, Nathan Lyon publicly declaring he wants to tour England again in 2027 and the pace trio of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc declaring that Tests will be the last format they give up, it could be extremely hard for fringe players to get an extended chance to cement a spot.
Not knowing exactly when the 30-something stars are planning to ride off into the sunset makes it hard for selectors to look too far down the track.
Position by position, looking at each of the 11 spots and how they could play out over the next five years, there could be as little as four or five spots up for grabs in that timeframe, apart from fill-in roles here and there that Scott Boland, Todd Murphy and Michael Neser have occupied in recent times.
There’s a possibility that when Warner retires, Marnus Labuschagne will be bumped up to opener so Cameron Green returns to the middle order. No new player required there.
Khawaja will play on until at least the end of next summer’s five-match homestand against India. By that stage, it would likely be too late for Marcus Harris or Cameron Bancroft to get a recall so the younger option of Matt Renshaw or Will Pucovski, if he has rebuilt his career sufficiently at first-class level, would be favoured to establish a rare long-term role.
Labuschagne and Travis Head, both 29, have built up enough credits to ink them in as mainstays for the next five years barring a dramatic drop in form.
Travis Head bats. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Smith is 34 and his likely dream farewell would be two summers from now in a home Ashes series, although after the vitriol that has been directed at Warner for stating he wants an SCG send-off months in advance, don’t expect his Blues buddy to say anything of the sort.
Green is considered an integral middle-order building block while Mitchell Marsh’s time as the first-choice all-rounder in the Test team is unlikely to go any longer than a couple of summers given the 32-year-old’s history with injuries and red-ball form.
That eventually leaves a spot or two for the likes of Aaron Hardie, Nathan McSweeney, Teague Wyllie, Campbell Kelleway and Ollie Davies to fight over.
There are very few young middle-order batters in the Shield ranks who appear on course for the Test arena, which underlines why the selectors will have no qualms if Smith and Marsh keep filling that role for a few more summers.
The wicketkeeping slot is crucial and a lot will depend on how Alex Carey bounces back this summer after the Ashes dramas and World Cup axing damaged his confidence.
At 32, the super-fit South Australian has the potential to retain the gloves long term but with Josh Inglis rising in estimations and four years younger, the Western Australian gloveman could get a chance sooner rather than later.
Alex Carey. (Photo by Sarah Reed/Getty Images)
Former Australian keeper Brad Haddin has repeatedly said he believes the Test format is Inglis’ strength. But the job is Carey’s for as long as he keeps performing as he’s seen as a key member of this current group which has been together for several years.
In the bowling department, Lyon is more than capable of churning out his arcing off breaks over and over for the next few years as he targets unfinished Ashes business on the next UK tour.
Murphy is the heir apparent and the recent investment in Tanveer Sangha’s development is bad news for the chances of Mitchell Swepson and Matt Kuhnemann adding to their handful of Test caps.
And then there’s the Big Three.
After the T20 World Cup next June, Starc and Hazlewood in particular will start to be more open about their plans for dropping a format or two at international level.
The blueprint laid out by Stuart Broad and James Anderson of eschewing the white-ball workload to extend their Test longevity is one that is likely to be followed by Australia’s fearsome threesome.
And that’s all but certain to mean Boland, 34, and Neser, 33, are going to be battling to get many more chances.
Even young express quick Lance Morris and his Western Australian comrade Jhye Richardson aren’t guaranteed to get much more than deputising duties over the next few years.
Jhye Richardson. (Photo by Mark Brake – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)
Starc is 34 next month and Hazlewood hits 33 while Cummins is 30 but has reduced miles in his legs (and back) after plenty of time out of the game early in his career when he went nearly six years between his first and second Test appearances.
Apart from an 18-month stretch when side strains sidelined Hazlewood, the incumbent trio have been durable despite the demands of bowling fast across three formats and if their workload is reduced to just Test duty, they may not roll into the retirement lounge until close to the end of this decade.
Looking at the team over a long-term view, the selectors may indeed be right that there’s no need to rush in new blood because the drop-off in incumbent players could end up being a very lengthy process.
Nearly as drawn-out as the saga surrounding Warner’s controversial exit.
Steele
Roar Rookie
Yes Barb, Except his bowling numbers are just plain ordinary. There’s no hiding from it. Don argues, it’s because he hasn’t bowled enough. He also says he’s been elite at shield level. The numbers say otherwise. The numbers in F/C cricket suggest what I’ve been saying, he’s a batting all rounder. The test numbers are middling in both. He’s very handy when you consider his batting and fielding talents, but he isn’t a true all rounder yet.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
No one else was given a chance. Boland, Murphy and Green just fielded. Cummins and Hazlewood did the stock work while Starc leaked runs. He is no longer in our best 5 quicks in red ball cricket. :stoked:
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You're constantly confused by cricket conversation. Read it again and you'll see it was a conversation about stats. Not everything gives you an opportunity to troll.
JamesH
Roar Guru
You didn't explain anything. As usual - and as you've just done again - you've made a few sweeping statements with absolutely nothing to back it up, then told us all how a Western Australian would have been a better option. Starc was pivotal in the win at Lords and then almost single-handedly bowled us to victory in the second innings at Headingley, when no one else looked remotely threatening. With a bit of support he could have taken us to a 3-0 lead with 2 tests to play. This is such an absurd argument.
Barb Dwyer
Roar Rookie
But Don, I'm confused? You've consistently stated that stats / numbers mean nothing? But when it comes to Green, suddenly the numbers are important? Intriguing ...
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Taking wickets is not the issue. Any of our candidates can/will do that. It's what he doesn't do when he should...when it's not easy...that he lets the side down. I just explained that to you. You responded with something totally unrelated.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
#6 Gilly! The first player in my World XI. Not because l think he's better than orher candidates but because you base your team around the wicky. Scorpio, oftentimes you'd see nothing to give away that the ball was about to be belted to stratospheres unknown. Known for ambushes Scorpio can sting most ferociously and without much foretelling. He had Mercury (Intelligence), Venus (Desire), Jupiter (Luck, blessing) and Neptune (Dreams aspirations) in the fiery light on your feet Sagittarius; the luckiest of signs. He also had Moon (emotions), Pluto (generational context and 'fit') and Uranus (individuality, coincidence) in the balance sign of Libra. Here's where his fairness and 'walking' came from. Uranus tgere means he individuated withjn the realms of Libra; balance, fairness, judgement. Remember the ball he got in Adelaide where he deemed his career over. His retirement had grace written all over it. It's shame that some Scorpios don't know how to retire. His Sun being in the 12th House indicated that he was like the Zeitgeist, the lightening rod, of his generation. --------- #Spinner: Clarrie! Who else would l pick? Capricorn. They rule time. The natives are baby faced when young and look young when old (Ita Buttrose, Zooey Deschanel, Susanna Hoffs). In men they take on the craggy look of wisdom and cone into their as they get older. It's why l say that Head will most likely, given all things equal, that he'll bat to at least 35/36 or more being a multi Capricorn. Spinners are quite often Earth Signs (Taurus, Virgo or Capricorn). (Earth as in the balls major action is of the 'earth' whereas the quicks rely on the "fire" of the bowler or thru the "air".) The bowler's here are: Shane Warne, Clarrie Grimmett, Ravi Ashwin, Bruce Yardley, Abdul Qadir, Erapalli Prasanna, Hugh Trumble or Water (Cancer Scorpio esp, (not so much Pisces) as the former two have 'manipulating' claws): Nathan Lyon, Ashley Mallet, Harbajhan Singh. Back to Grumm, he had a lot of energy in Capricorn, Scorpio, Virgo, Cancer and Taurus; all the signs indicated above. He had determination and durability: Cancer / Capricorn axis and stubborness in Taurus / Scorpio axis. He was an extremely hardworker as his career point, the MC, was in Taurus- the Bull. ------- Four Quicks # Jeff Thomson: had the Sun conjunct Pluto which is explosive power and in undeniable fire of Leo # Michael Holding # Dale Steyn # Wasim Akram I'll finish tomorrow
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Thank you
Gharner
Roar Rookie
They've been pretty much spot on except for Warner in Tests. We lost the series in India in the games he played, and we didn't win the Ashes.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
He is elite at both, as we've seen at Shield level. Strange segue when referring to Starc. Nothing poor about Green's numbers. He was our tightest bowler in the last series he played for the country; the World Cup. That's numbers.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Ah, here we go with the arbitrary and factually incorrect claims. I've already had this argument a while ago with someone on the Roar, where I went back through 12-24 months of Starc's then-recent stats to demonstrate that he actually took a higher percentage of top 7 wickets than Cummins and Hazlewood in that period. But let's go again, specific to his most recent test series: in his four Ashes tests, this is how often he dismissed English batters in each position: 1 - 0 2 - 3 3 - 3 4 - 1 5 - 4 6 - 3 7 - 2 8 - 3 9 - 0 10 - 2 11 - 0 All in all, it's an even spread. Only 5 of his 21 wickets were tailenders (and just 2 of those weren't Woakes at 8), while only 7 of them were top 4. The numbers actually say he was most likely to dismiss batters in the 5-8 range. Funnily enough, that's a pretty strong indication that he took wickets in the middle overs, where for some strange reason you seem to think he went missing.
Gamechanger
Roar Rookie
What a shocker of an attempt at catch
Lawrence
Roar Rookie
Bancroft, Green, Morris, Marsh, Inglis, Richardson has a nice ring to it next summer. Our spinners pretty handy too.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Openers: This is not exhaustive but I'd go with an Earth Sign and Fire Sign in tandem. Earth for a 'grounding influence' and Fire for the get up n go factor. But the power can be through a simpatico understanding and not necessarily one element over another. Simpson / Lawry were both Aquarius. Hayden / Langer are both Scorpio. See how this works? -------- #3 Ponting has Sun and Mercury exact degree; about 27° Sagittarius (360° is used a la geometry) and Mars / Neptune in the happy go lucky sign of Sagittarius. I think Ricky relied a lot on the bonhomie of the team. Mercury is not 'happy' in Sagittarius and l think that manifested in him being poor as a tactician. Mercury is our thinking and intelligence realm and Sagittarius doesnt want to be bogged down by details. Think Keith Miller, Kerry Packer, et al. Nonetheless Ponting had the Sun conjunct Mercury so he was lucky in love so to speak. Mars (male energy of drive and ambition) conjunct Neptune(dreams and aspirations) manifest in Sagittarius the character that bestrode the sport in like a once in a while generation. He dreamt of it as boy and was probably insufferable in his march to world domination. From all accounts he slept with his bat, dreamed of going big from an early age. As l said: Mars / Neptune= boyhood dreams. ------- #4 Greg Chappell had the Sun conjunct Pluto in Leo. The Lion was born to rule in great power and this was manifest in his throne. His throne you say? In his case it was "the crease"; has anyone looked more in their rulership of the crease more than GSC? He produced, others marvelled. Like Ponting he had Mars conjunct Neptune but in Libra. This is where his majestic strokeplay is indicated. Ponting was more dynamic (Sagittarius) wheras there was a magnificent fluidity with Greg. Libra is the Male sign ruled by Venus. There's always something "nancy-boy" with Mars in Libra. They love the view they get in the mirror (Richie and Ian are Libran Suns). I think this is why Greg could couldn't put himself through the ardure of overseas touring. With a lot of Male planetary placements its a lot about himself. ------- #5 Allan Border had three really strong signs; Cancer, Leo & Scorpio. Leo and Scorpio are energies "Square" and are difficult energies to be overcome; one part of the reason he was grumpy. The second was his Moon (emotions) and Saturn (discipline) are conjunct. Moon Saturn people are grumps. (You should meet my Sister). Anyone with a strong Moon / Saturn configuration can be quite dour and serious and in Scorpio posesses a sharp tongue. The 3rd indicator of that grumpiness was that Mercury, Venus (desire) and Uranus (our individuality) were in the sign of Cancer= the Crab, 'crabby', get it? Venus and Uranus don't really go well together. Unusual bedfellows, to say the least, and oftentimes associated with quite jarring manifestations. His determination and success were built on the Moon / Saturn in Scorpio being favourably placed with the 3 Planets in Cancer. Both these signs love a fight, they'll defend the realm and not backdown. And to top it off his Leo Sun was conjunct his MC: the Career Point. He was born to rule. This is his demanding fealty energy but also you earnt his benevolence if you came through ------ #6-11 later
Steele
Roar Rookie
Actually, tail end bowling is a unique skill set. One I’d argue Starc has perfected. I like Green, but at what stage do you entertain the idea that his stats are poor, because he hasn’t bowled that well as opposed to him not bowling enough? He looks like a batting all rounder to me.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
The next team is the team to get us to #1, not this team. This team is not even the #1 team in Australia (some of them would be in it, but not all of them).
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I haven't got the guts to do that.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
That's hilarious. There's no way l could pass that up. But I've been known to disregard convention. ------- About 20 years ago me n Ric Charlesworth fixed up Aussie Cricket, Australian Football, Hockey and Tennis. I probably wondered about what he wondered about coming across me.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
I don't mind those calls but Renshaw would have got an easy ride, given his Shield inconsistency.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Most of his wickets are bowling to the tail. He goes missing so often in middle overs and just leaks massive amounts of runs at times when they need to dry up. Staggering the number of times they went to Starc when it was obvious they needed Green, not just in the Ashes. So many other quicks can get wickets with the new ball and against the tail but they also perform in the middle. With a captain who refused to use Boland, Green and Murphy, Starc going missing was so costly.