ANALYSIS: Good teams win when they're not at their best - but the Brumbies have a lot to fix to challenge in Super Rugby

So far in 2024 the ACT Brumbies have managed to close out tight wins despite not being at their best.

This ability to eke out wins when things are not going their way is almost their superpower, and the instability on the field is due to significant changes behind the scenes.

While their playing roster is almost unchanged the exit of scrum guru Dan Palmer as well as the ‘Lord’ of breakdown and defence Laurie Fisher have noticeably impacted the men from the capital.

The departure of two of the most experienced assistant coaches in Australian is not only a loss in IP but a significant change in personalities.

These two things combined may be the reason the Brumbies are not firing like they have been in years gone by.

“We got the win last week, but we weren’t happy with our physicality and breakdown, and I think even the first 20 minutes here we were still a little bit, uh, lazy in that area,” Brumbies captain Ryan Lonergan said in post-match commentary after the Highlanders win.

Lonergan is not wrong when criticising his team’s physicality and breakdown, they have the second worst defensive percentage, most missed tackles and are sitting tenth for turnovers conceded in the competition.

“You have to fully commit to new things to see if they work and I think we are still in the early stages of that,” Lonergan continued.

“We are starting to see some positive results on the end of it, as long as we all keep believing in it, fully committing to it, I’ll think we will be in good stead come the end of the season.”

Corey Toole managed to get on the outside of the Highlanders’ defence after some smart work from Andy Muirhead at Forsyth Barr Stadium, on March 16, 2024, in Dunedin. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

Overseeing this change in defence and at breakdown is former Wallaby Ben Mowen.

Mowen is inexperienced at coaching at Super level and has a varied and important remit, looking after defence, breakdown, and lineout.

So far, he has been unable to imbue this side with the steel and organisation at breakdown like his predecessor.

Similarly, the defensive aspects of the game are below competition averages.

Neither of these issues appear to warrant alarm bells for head coach Stephen Larkham.

“It’s a long season… for us we certainly are looking at the bigger picture and longer term, making sure we’re getting better every week as opposed to [focusing on] results,” Larkham said.

To put the figures in context, the Brumbies managed only 75 per cent tackle success against the Highlanders, which is their tied best percentage so far.

The common understanding is teams must be tackling at around 85 per cent or northwards to be competitive in Super Rugby Pacific.

Ben Mowen has some work in front of him to get the Brumbies’ defence, breakdown and lineout areas up to scratch. Photo: Brumbies Media

Their most disappointing effort came against the Rebels where they tackled at 70 per cent.

The Brumbies are missing an average of 34 tackles per game.

While defence and breakdown are not firing as the team would like, their changing attacking structure is also experiencing some teething problems.

The Brumbies are playing a direct and conservative approach in their first three phases.

In contrast to the Queensland Reds, who like to go from side to side and attack in the 15m channels, the Brumbies play between the 15m lines.

This direct running means they are not stretching teams early in the phase count and puts a focus on winning blunt collisions.

This strategy could explain why they are sitting last for defenders beaten, and ninth for line breaks.

In Dunedin, a lot of the attack in the first 60 minutes of the game came off the halfback.

These sped-up clips show how tight the Brumbies keep their phases, often this is requiring the same runners to make two or three carries per attack.

Playing off the nine means they don’t get as much width in the attack.

Ironically, the Brumbies look the most dangerous and have scored most of their tries when attacking in those 15m channels.

The above clips shows that the Brumbies managed to get outside the Highlanders rush defence in the second half.

Lolesio was at his best during this period, getting the ball out the back of pods with a fatiguing rush d-line which allowed him to pick better passes.

Throughout the game, the Brumbies struggled with their depth in attack, they were either too deep, running moves way behind the ad-line or the forward runners were too flat off Lolesio.

This meant, the Brums often went backwards for two or three phases before regaining forward momentum.

The Highlanders’ higher energy levels in the first half meant they caught the Brumbies regularly behind the gainline, as the deception wasn’t there in their strike plays.

Despite keeping the play tight and uncomplicated, the Brumbies are managing to get the job done and have won three of their opening four matches. Importantly, though, they have only played one of the top four teams on the table.

The thumping win over the Melbourne Rebels in round 1 painted over the cracks and anyone looking at the figures after that game would have been less surprised by the 46 points to 12 demolition they suffered a week later at the hands of the Chiefs in Super Round.

Since then, the Brumbies have been a mixed bag, with their next three games being Moana Pasifika, Reds and Waratahs.

While Moana and the Waratahs don’t pose as much of a threat in attack, the Reds are a side that could leave the Brumbies battered and bruised with an ugly scoreline unless the defensive deficiencies are plugged.

Players and coaches are acknowledging there is work to be done and hearing that Larkham is more concerned with the detail than results is perhaps a good place to be so early in the season.

The Brumbies’ DNA of the basics; set-piece, breakdown, defence are undergoing a mass shake-up under the guidance of a new coaching cohort, but if they can commit to their new systems, they have the talent in their squad to be competing with the best at the backend of the season.