Almost every year there’s a finals bolter. Remember North Melbourne’s ten-rung rise between 2006 and 2007?
Or the Saint’s climb from fortunate, long-distant fourth 2008 preliminary finalist to all but undefeated in 2009?
The rise of West Coast into the four in 2011 after taking the spoon the year before had plenty blinking. Port Adelaide was 2013’s surprise packet.
Every season plenty of us take a stab at guessing who this year’s version might be.
Ahead of season 2014, I sense a surge from the Queensland team of whom few expect much.
A decade ago the Brisbane Lions were saddling up for a tilt at a fourth consecutive flag.
Since then the cupboard has not only remained bare, it’s been hanging by a loose screw. Add to this the reality that a brash new AFL lovechild has been strategically planted an hour down the M1, and things become especially bleak.
Still, despite being underskilled, underpaced, undercoached and underappreciated in recent times the Lions have retained a reputation as a tough, hard opponent.
Visiting the Gabba is always a tough slog for opposition teams. The Lions retain their physical edge. But has enough changed elsewhere?
Indeed it has. And for the better. Considerably so.
In Justin Leppitsch, there’s a new coach for starters (Enter Brisbane Lions’ fans collective sigh of relief here).
Just like James Hird, Matthew Knights and Brett Ratten – players who served with such distinction during more or less the same era – coaching was a bridge too far for the now deposed Michael Voss.
Perhaps awestruck, the Lions’ administration went with the Voss flow from the get go. In a very real way, they were guiltier than he. One should never expect the aqueduct from a first year plumbing apprentice. Nor should their advice be taken as anything more than a suggestion. Wooing Brendan Fevola at all costs is almost up there with hiring a CV-less Stephen Dank in the culpability stakes.
Voss had far too much say for someone so unready. A single finals appearance during his tenure says it all. A price has been well and truly paid.
But what do the Lions now have in ‘Leppa’?
In many ways, Justin Leppitsch is the Voss antithesis. He’s a fresh and keen graduate of the system, for starters. He arrives at the Lions with a reputation for communicativeness, empathy and strategic nous and brings little in the way of puff-chested bluster. Three years as an essential and respected assistant at Richmond will hold him in good stead.
And already we see some positive signs.
A Lions reserves side was utterly trounced by last year’s Premier Hawthorn in the club’s first NAB Challenge hit-out, but its frenzied work in a strong win in Townsville against the improving Suns in a subsequent trial told a far greater tale. Plenty of stoppages. Plenty of grunt.
Near enough to 90 tackles in sweltering conditions. A patient possession-focused game. Hard-earned shots on goal. And, importantly, far less mistakes.
The Lions in 2014 won’t die wondering. Brisbane will stick to their guns in close, and ply their trade tirelessly.
It may not be attractive football, but it will keep plenty of games tight and if you’re close enough at the death you just never know what might happen.
All in all it seems the Lions of 2014 will finally play to their strengths – work rate, size and physicality – and avoid relying on weaknesses – a lack of outside pace and panicky disposal.
This can only be good.
Trent West as a new back up to gun ruckman Matthew Leuenberger is a massive plus. West is readymade, from all reports arrives fit, and brings pedigree from as a good a footballing school as there is in Geelong. You’d hope he’d relish the opportunity to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.
And scoff at the Brisbane midfield at your peril. Despite the absence this season of retired star Simon Black, the Lions have a solid roster of strong-bodied and tough ball-winners. Rich, Rockliff, recently re-signed Redden, Hanley, Polkinghorne, Moloney and even Zorko are all more than capable of racking up strong numbers.
So will the Lions trouble enough of the top sides? I say yes. And with some confidence.
Much will need to go their way, of course. That’s almost a given for any team.
Recently arrived former Tiger Luke McGuane needs to be tireless in support of Matt Maguire, Daniel Merrett and skipper Jed Adcock, but his presence already stabilises the Lions ‘on paper’ defensive core no end. Jonathan Brown will need to stay fit and improve on last years’ 28 goals. Leuenberger’s fitness is similarly important. Daniel Rich needs to be what we know he can be, only more often.
But a stifling, stoppage-heavy, attack-on-the-turnover method will make the Lions hard to wear down, particularly at the ‘Gabbatoir’. Take advantage of it’s home ground in the way it used to and the Lions really only need to win a handful away to make an impression.
It may not secure a finals berth, but it could bring them awfully close. For a team that hasn’t finished higher than twelfth since 2009, that will mean plenty.
Want an outsider for this year’s eight? Look no further than the workmanlike Lions.
There’s much to like.
Choose your lineup of up to 17 mates for your chance to experience a Lions match from the comfort of the Gabba Members Reserve, as well as a pre-match tour of the Members Reserve. Create your team, share with your mates and you win the ultimate Memberable Moment with your mates.
Rykker
Guest
Sorry, But I personally think that the Lions are a bottom 4 side this year.
TomC
Roar Guru
You'd have to say that Leppitsch's first team as Brisbane coach is one for the future. Three players to make their debut, including Lewis Taylor who didn't even make a NAB Cup appearance. Bewick, Polkinghorne, Maguire, Raines and Lisle have all been snubbed to give a game to a debutant. That's on top of Mayes, Paparone and Clarke, each with fewer than 20 games to their name. It's the team you pick when you're rebuiliding rather than the team you pick when you're trying to win footy games. Exciting, but a little worrying.
handles
Guest
I worry about the Lions this year. I hope you are right Matt, but I suspect that it is going to be another tough year. I am really looking forward to seeing Rockliffe & Redden going, but I don't see a way to recover from the loss of Black. An injury to Luenberger or Brown and we will start to look like the side that played the Hawks a couple of weeks ago...
handles
Guest
Another word WHAT?
shezza
Guest
I think Brisbane are morals for the wooden spoon. Luey I the ruck is fine, starting 4 in the midfield are fine, not eniuenough quality with regards to midfield rotations and forward line is the weakness. I can't see the lions kicking scores in excess of 100 points per game.
TomC
Roar Guru
Yeah, 50 is a pretty high bar these days. I looked it up and Schulz kicked 49! Would love someone like him at the Lions.
TomC
Roar Guru
Also worth pointing out that Karnezis and Yeo weren't top 20 picks. Although in hindsight Yeo perhaps should've been. Incidentally, I can't see anyone from Adelaide or Western kicking 50 goals either, unless Walker returns from injury faster than expected. But I don't disagree. Whether or not you have a gun goalkicker it's good to have a settled, dependable forwardline, and Brisbane don't. And won't, at least until Staker returns from injury. Thinking about it, I suppose you're right in the sense that with the go home five plus the delisings that would be about a quarter of the squad. But SFM is right to say that only one of the first 22 has left, and hardly the most important.
josh
Roar Rookie
Forward line has been an issue for a while.
Cat
Roar Guru
Plenty of teams didn't have a 50+ goal kicker last year ... Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Bulldogs, Freo, Geelong, Suns, Melbourne, Power and Sydney did not have a 50+ goal kicker, of those 5 played in the 8. Hardly a telling statistic.
Matt Webber
Guest
See response to Tom. Agree totally re Lions mids. Strong. Arguing about specific positions among smalls is kind of futile. At various times small/medium defenders/forwards always run through the middle. It's all about having plenty of capable numbers on the midfield rotation. Be amazed if McGuane isn't used back. Seems the ideal fit to me. I guess I draw on the St Kilda example of trying out Gwilt and Fisher in forward roles… Never worked. That said he could work in tandem with Brown and having a potential swingman is a bonus. Lets see where he lines up.
David
Guest
ok - those points aside - id still like to know who will score 50+ goals
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Not to nit-pick but 5 players is not a quarter of the Lions squad. Second - the only one of those 5 players who was close to cementing a spot as a starter was Yeo the rest were still battling for a crack at the top flight on a regular basis.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
I wonder about the list analysis as well considering that Polkinghorne is in the process of shifting the defence having trained with that group all summer and McGuane will spend the majority of his time forward and only really go back in the case of emergency. The Lions re-signings signals a belief in what Leppa is bring to the Gabba. They have a great core of young talented midfielders, the forward line is the issue for me.
David
Guest
I'm baffled, how can a side which lost 5 players, all of whom were top 20 draft picks as well as Simon Black be an outside chance to make the 8?They've lost a quarter of their team guys! Dare i say it, the only teams i see finishing below the Lions are GWS, St Kilda and perhaps Melbourne. Given the evenness of teams from 6-12 spots in the 8 will be feircly contested. I just dont see the Lions as having the depth or experience to turn those close games into wins, especially taking their unconvincing pre-season form into consideration (what a 130 point drubbing teaches new players im not sure) To win games teams need to score goals - and the Lions simply don't have the avenues to kick enough goals to win 10+ games this season. Sure they have JB and Lisle but they have no forward line depth leaving them a standard JB concussion away from disaster. If we are looking for an outsider for the 8, id recommend looking closer at the Crows or Dogs.
Nick
Guest
One word TANKING
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I tend to believe we will be closer to the 8 than the spoon as some "Pundits" are picking! I still can't see us jumping in the 8! However Fantastic News seeing a few of the boys resigning last couple of days.
Ken
Guest
From the perspective of a Carlton supporter...I think the Lions future is brighter. Maybe 8th to 10th this year for both of us. Lions better in 2014...Blues worse!
Matt Webber
Guest
Hi Tom. I guess the point I was making is that there is a useful utilitarian element to the Lions make up - plenty of options if the game plan works just right. And as we know rotations through the middle are such a key element of the modern game. Further, from what I've seen so far I think Leppitsch is happy to stick with the strengths we've come to know, but work on whittling away the things that make the Lions fall to bits. Discipline with the ball is key, and the Lions simply don't have the runners to be expansive. Like I said, much needs to go right, but I reckon Leppa will be a fresh lick of paint. The nuts and bolts of a solid side have always been there. Bit of luck and rigid adherence to a plan and they'll be on their way. The Gabba MUST be the Gabbatoir again. That's the non-negotiable. Cheers mate, Matt
TomC
Roar Guru
I want to believe this article. I really do. There are points in here that I think are significant, particularly the glaring differences between Leppitsch and Voss as communicators. But there are points where I’m not entirely sure what Matt means. In particular, it seems from the outside that Voss’ gameplan was heavily focussed on work rate and physicality, hence the failure of players like Karnezis, Polec and Cornelius to get games, while Leppitsch’s style is more focussed on possession and ball movement. Matt seems to be saying the opposite, but perhaps I misunderstand. Leppitsch does seem keen to use the wings more, which is likely to create a ‘stifling, stoppage-heavy’ contest so I guess that makes sense. It also makes sense at the Gabba with its wide flanks. There are little things in here that just make me wonder how closely Matt has really examined the Lions. Citing Polkinghorne as one of the team’s better midfielders, for one. Talking about McGuane as if Leppitsch intended to play him in defence, which certainly doesn’t appear to be the case, is another. I guess I should be grateful for any analysis. It’s become just downright shameful how we’re being treated ahead of this season, with the glossing over of important signings during this week the final (hopefully) insult. Anyway, I don’t think we’ll make the finals. Sadly I think it’ll be another of those not-quite seasons. Not quite good enough for the eight, not quite bad enough for really good draft picks. I expect like last year we’ll jump up and surprise in games we’re not expected to, and then turn out poor performances in games we should win. That’s the lot of a young team with scarce depth and a weak forwardline.
Liam
Guest
I'm a long time Lions supporter, but I can't see them making the 8 this year. To make the finals, we've got to look at last year's finals, and decide who's not going to make it this time. And looking at last year's 8, there's not a lot of chaff. Hawthorne, Sydney, Freo, Geelong are surely all locked in. Port are on their way up, not down, Richmond are being touted as top 4 challengers. So there's pretty slim pickings for positions. And who else is knocking on the door for those spots? Essendon have as good a chance as any to slot back where they would have been, West Coast seem to have their stuff back together, North are on their way up, Adelaide only just missed out, and the Gold Coast are starting to look threatening. We haven't seen the Lions play a proper season game under the new coach, so anything is possible, but there's a lot of mid-table opponents they're going to need to beat, not just do well against, to make that 8.