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Almost every year there’s a finals bolter. Remember North Melbourne’s ten-rung rise between 2006 and 2007?
Or the Saint’s climb from fortunate, long-distant fourth 2008 preliminary finalist to all but undefeated in 2009?
The rise of West Coast into the four in 2011 after taking the spoon the year before had plenty blinking. Port Adelaide was 2013’s surprise packet.
Every season plenty of us take a stab at guessing who this year’s version might be.
Ahead of season 2014, I sense a surge from the Queensland team of whom few expect much.
A decade ago the Brisbane Lions were saddling up for a tilt at a fourth consecutive flag.
Since then the cupboard has not only remained bare, it’s been hanging by a loose screw. Add to this the reality that a brash new AFL lovechild has been strategically planted an hour down the M1, and things become especially bleak.
Still, despite being underskilled, underpaced, undercoached and underappreciated in recent times the Lions have retained a reputation as a tough, hard opponent.
Visiting the Gabba is always a tough slog for opposition teams. The Lions retain their physical edge. But has enough changed elsewhere?
Indeed it has. And for the better. Considerably so.
In Justin Leppitsch, there’s a new coach for starters (Enter Brisbane Lions’ fans collective sigh of relief here).
Just like James Hird, Matthew Knights and Brett Ratten – players who served with such distinction during more or less the same era – coaching was a bridge too far for the now deposed Michael Voss.
Perhaps awestruck, the Lions’ administration went with the Voss flow from the get go. In a very real way, they were guiltier than he. One should never expect the aqueduct from a first year plumbing apprentice. Nor should their advice be taken as anything more than a suggestion. Wooing Brendan Fevola at all costs is almost up there with hiring a CV-less Stephen Dank in the culpability stakes.
Voss had far too much say for someone so unready. A single finals appearance during his tenure says it all. A price has been well and truly paid.
But what do the Lions now have in ‘Leppa’?
In many ways, Justin Leppitsch is the Voss antithesis. He’s a fresh and keen graduate of the system, for starters. He arrives at the Lions with a reputation for communicativeness, empathy and strategic nous and brings little in the way of puff-chested bluster. Three years as an essential and respected assistant at Richmond will hold him in good stead.
And already we see some positive signs.
A Lions reserves side was utterly trounced by last year’s Premier Hawthorn in the club’s first NAB Challenge hit-out, but its frenzied work in a strong win in Townsville against the improving Suns in a subsequent trial told a far greater tale. Plenty of stoppages. Plenty of grunt.
Near enough to 90 tackles in sweltering conditions. A patient possession-focused game. Hard-earned shots on goal. And, importantly, far less mistakes.
The Lions in 2014 won’t die wondering. Brisbane will stick to their guns in close, and ply their trade tirelessly.
It may not be attractive football, but it will keep plenty of games tight and if you’re close enough at the death you just never know what might happen.
All in all it seems the Lions of 2014 will finally play to their strengths – work rate, size and physicality – and avoid relying on weaknesses – a lack of outside pace and panicky disposal.
This can only be good.
Trent West as a new back up to gun ruckman Matthew Leuenberger is a massive plus. West is readymade, from all reports arrives fit, and brings pedigree from as a good a footballing school as there is in Geelong. You’d hope he’d relish the opportunity to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.
And scoff at the Brisbane midfield at your peril. Despite the absence this season of retired star Simon Black, the Lions have a solid roster of strong-bodied and tough ball-winners. Rich, Rockliff, recently re-signed Redden, Hanley, Polkinghorne, Moloney and even Zorko are all more than capable of racking up strong numbers.
So will the Lions trouble enough of the top sides? I say yes. And with some confidence.
Much will need to go their way, of course. That’s almost a given for any team.
Recently arrived former Tiger Luke McGuane needs to be tireless in support of Matt Maguire, Daniel Merrett and skipper Jed Adcock, but his presence already stabilises the Lions ‘on paper’ defensive core no end. Jonathan Brown will need to stay fit and improve on last years’ 28 goals. Leuenberger’s fitness is similarly important. Daniel Rich needs to be what we know he can be, only more often.
But a stifling, stoppage-heavy, attack-on-the-turnover method will make the Lions hard to wear down, particularly at the ‘Gabbatoir’. Take advantage of it’s home ground in the way it used to and the Lions really only need to win a handful away to make an impression.
It may not secure a finals berth, but it could bring them awfully close. For a team that hasn’t finished higher than twelfth since 2009, that will mean plenty.
Want an outsider for this year’s eight? Look no further than the workmanlike Lions.
There’s much to like.
Choose your lineup of up to 17 mates for your chance to experience a Lions match from the comfort of the Gabba Members Reserve, as well as a pre-match tour of the Members Reserve. Create your team, share with your mates and you win the ultimate Memberable Moment with your mates.
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