The NRL doesn’t mind borrowing from the NFL, so what are the chances of the grand final mirroring one of the great Super Bowl upsets on Sunday?
The grand final, at least in the lead-up, reminds me a bit of the 2008 Super Bowl, when the New England Patriots started as hot favourites against the New York Giants.
The Patriots were trying to complete an unbeaten season, having won all of their 16 regular-season games plus two playoff matches.
The Giants had qualified for the playoffs as a wild card team, the NFL equivalent of finishing in the bottom half of the NRL’s top eight.
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They won three playoff games to make it to the Super Bowl, but were given little chance of upsetting an opposition that had a superstar quarterback in Tom Brady and the best coach in football in Bill Belichick.
The Giants won 17-14, the feature being an incredible play in which quarterback Eli Manning appeared certain to be sacked but somehow avoided it before throwing a 32-yard pass that David Tyree miraculously caught and held as part of the match-winning touchdown drive.
South Sydney, as we all know, aren’t unbeaten this season. They weren’t even minor premiers. But they are all the rage for the grand final after smashing Manly and Sydney Roosters in their two finals appearances.
They are at similarly prohibitive odds to the star-studded Souths team that played Balmain in the famous 1969 grand final, which, of course, the Rabbitohs lost. Souths won the two grand finals immediately before that and the two straight after.
Canterbury, like the Giants, weren’t in great form going into the finals series, but have raised the bar when it absolutely matters to score wins over Melbourne, Manly and Penrith.
They haven’t looked as good as the Rabbitohs, but are there alongside them for the last game of the season.
Like the Patriots and Giants, Souths and Canterbury played a very competitive match against each other late in the regular season.
The Rabbitohs trailed for a long time against the Bulldogs in the second-last round before scoring nine points in the last eight minutes and winning 21-14.
The Patriots came from behind in the final quarter to beat the Giants 38-35 in what was a last-round match.
It is only a matter of time before a team wins the grand final from the bottom half of the top eight.
The NRL wanted parity and it has achieved that, via the salary cap. This year’s competition was the most even of the modern era.
Canterbury finished seventh, but they were only two wins outside of the top four and they did have significant injury and suspension problems during the season.
Based on form in the finals series, they don’t look like a team that has managed to come from the bottom half of the top eight to make the grand final. They look like a top-four team.
So maybe there’s not nearly as much difference between the Rabbitohs and the Bulldogs as some people think.
When a competition is as even as this one, form can become less reliable and how well the two teams present themselves on the day can become even more important than usual.
Don’t forget that after Souths went on a five-game winning streak from rounds 19 to 23 – a run in which their smallest winning margin was 16 points and their biggest was 40 – they were right off their game the following week against North Queensland and were beaten.
No-one saw that coming.
Souths deserve to be favourites against Canterbury, but let’s not get carried away. Those who are tipping the Rabbitohs to bolt in could be in for a surprise – a contest might break out.
51ave
Guest
Will there be burning and looting on the streets of Redfern or Belmore? I'll be watching with sick fascination!
Albatross
Guest
Funnier still is the fact you mis-read Steves post.
Christian
Guest
The Greenberg Bulldogs won't let souths win. expect a huge call against the bunnies during the match that the nrl will cover with some stupid excuse.
paul
Guest
I like the rabbits but lets be fair dinkum they beat a busted manly and then a very tired roosters. They got ther usual 5 penalties in a row and momentum changed easts were on top before ref got in volved. They are the reffs darlings no question but I think will win on back of chamions ingliss and burgess
Glenn Innes
Guest
Last time I checked the betting markets money suggest a seventy percentage chance of South Sydney winning and a thirty percent chance for Canterbury. That suggests a Canterbury victory is would be a modest upset, certainly not a huge one, it's not like South's are $1.02.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
SOUTHS by 7 otherwise doggies by a point
Paul Nicholls
Roar Guru
It's funny that the feel-good factor seems to be swinging fom Souths to the Dogs. Go you doggies
Casper
Guest
Aah, the 1969 upset where a star studded South Sydney was rolled 11-2 by the Balmain no-hopers? I was only a youngster at the time but believe that Souths only beat Balmain 14-13 in the semi-final & then Balmain got up in the last few minutes 15-14 over Manly in the preliminary final to make the GF. If the tigers were only one point off the mark the first time around, it's hard to believe that complacency was the reason for the GF defeat. Those scores indicate the competition was closer than the historians portray. I think it's been built up as a classic upset over the years because of what the south sydney players became in later seasons. That was the era of 2 point field goal & Balmain scored 1 try, 2 goals & 2 field goals to 1 solitary penalty goal. Think it was a 4 tackle rule & hookers earned their money by winning ball against the feed & loose head. Reports indicate that Balmain used tactics where successive players feigned injury to slow the Souths momentum. Expect similar from Des Hasler.
fiver
Guest
It's up the Dogs to contain Souths. Souths wont worry about what the Dogs do, they will just try and run over the top of them. In saying that I think this Bulldogs side is more mentally tough than Souths and Des will no doubt have some plan to exploit Souths weaknesses.
greg prichard
Guest
Sigh...
Andy P
Guest
Mals, everyone seems to remember Manly as being favourites for the comp in '95, and yes they were for most of the season, but by GF day they weren't. The Dogs had so much momentum in that finals series that their odds kept shortening. I remember that by GF weekend most of the media pundits were tipping them.
Dr Yes
Guest
Yes, Souths deserve favouritism. But to play devil's advocate... There's a grand final still to be won. Nerves play a big part on the day. The game is usually the season's biggest arm-wrestle of battering one another. Injuries can play a part during the game (2012 prelim anyone?) Can be swung by a couple of "moments" of effort or narrow opportunity taken. The Dogs pack is big - all-time record-breaking big. What happens if the Dogs successfully target George Burgess' ribs after last week? Or someone has an unfortunate game - a la Wolfman? Or someone springs a 40-20 at a critical moment and/or taps a penalty before the defence realises what's happened?. Or the bomb brings 3 tries? Or there's a terrible case of concussion? Sunday forecast for 32 degrees - sometimes brings a storm. At kickoff in 2003, the heavens opened with a huge storm, continued all game, turned 2/3 of field to mud - and cost the Roosters. About Souths run - they've played very well in defence and attacking in opponents quarter. But their opponents played into their hands. I think all tries last week came after the Roosters allowed them a little camping in their quarter. 21 errors + penalties is pretty huge. You don't get that territory gifted in a GF. And last week was less of a cakewalk than everyone's claiming. A couple less contentious calls going their way and they could be down a try or 2, with their opponents up. Upsets of this magnitude happen every couple of rounds through the season. Any tipsters remember how the season started? Upsets more often than not for the first month or six weeks. Tipsters scoring 20 or 30%. Just think about the Bunnies' own season - 9 losses folks. Including Raiders, Tigers, Titans, Cowboys, Dogs. As I said, Souths deserve favouritism. But it's a tough day, not just an extrapolation of the last couple of games.
jacksyd
Guest
The dogs have a superior side? It explains why they are hot favorites, LOL
Cathar Treize
Roar Guru
Image at University of Sydney. The district is awash in South Sydney colours. On top of federal government funding for the new high performance & community centre, what a week for the Bunnies :) https://pbs.twimg.com/media/By_b2w-CQAA15kW.jpg
Con Scortis
Roar Guru
43 - 0 would be more poetic
Worlds Biggest
Guest
I don't care if it's 4-0, as long as the win the damn thing !
Rabbits
Guest
Souths win 44-0. You heard it here first. Feel the power!
Parrafan
Guest
Barry they have to say that. All PR rubbish, but it is monumental. Getting that first premiership in a long time is a big hurdle.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Souths players have continually said that the 43 years means nothing to them.
Peter
Guest
Nah, Souths are locks.