Have the Tigers roared into premiership contention off the back of dismantling the Hawks on Friday night?
Their recent record against the current top four demands they be taken seriously, but weight of history suggests otherwise. Which to believe?
Richmond have raised eyebrows against the best sides this season, defeating both Fremantle and Sydney interstate earlier in the year, and pushing West Coast all the way in their meeting.
In the last two weeks they have infamously thrown away certain victory against the Dockers once more, before recording their most impressive win of the year against the ‘unbeatable’ Hawks.
As enigmatic as the Tigers always are, if we look at the last three years, Richmond actually has a positive combined win-loss record against Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast.
Since the start of 2013, they are 2-1 against both the Hawks and Eagles, 2-2 against the Swans, with a 2-3 record against the Dockers the only team of these four they’re in the negative against. And two of those losses to Freo have been by four points or less, with the Dockers securing last-gasp victory each time, seconds only remaining on the clock.
It’s an unavoidable fact that the Tigers match-up well against these sides, better than their station suggests they should.
Beating any three of them in a row in order to claim a flag is, of course, a different story. But this is what they’ll have to do, with a top-four finish unlikely. Richmond can win all of their remaining games and would still likely fall short of claiming the coveted double chance.
The biggest historical challenge the Tigers have to overcome is something that has happened only once in the last 17 years – winning the premiership without winning a final the year before.
The only team to do it in that time is Geelong in 2007, when they came from outside the top eight to dominate all competition on the way to a storied flag. However, that Cats outfit had won finals in 2004 and 2005, not to mention finishing three games clear on top of the ladder as the clear best team in the competition.
Neither of those factors apply to Richmond, who haven’t won a final since 2001, and will be forced to make their charge from a fifth or sixth placed finish.
There is a little ray of light for how far the Tiges can go though – five grand finalists in the last 17 years have made it to the big day without winning a final the previous year, the most recent also coming in 2007 when Port joined Geelong on the last Saturday in September having missed the eight the previous year.
Again though, Port had won finals in 2004 (including the flag) and 2005, so had plenty of winning September experience to call on.
Richmond will be looking to Adelaide of 1997, a club that missed the finals in 1996. The Crows finished fourth with only 13 wins in ’97, the same amount as West Coast in fifth. They then proceeded to win all four finals, knocking off the top three sides on the ladder on their way to an inaugural premiership.
The Tigers are going to have to do something similar in order to go all the way. Beating the top four is within their capability.
Richmond’s elimination final could be the biggest impasse of all. Despite their impressive record against the current top four, they don’t match up well at all against the other likely finalists.
The Tigers have lost their last two against the Western Bulldogs, haven’t beaten Geelong since 2006, and have only beaten North once in their last eight encounters. This is a cause for concern for all in the yellow and black army, desperately hoping to avoid a third year in a row of not making it past week one of the finals.
There is a new-found resilience at Tigerland though, sown in the seeds of losses to Melbourne, the Dogs, Geelong and North earlier in the season.
Can Richmond go all the way this year? It’s an extremely unlikely scenario, but they’ll be the club none of the top four wants to play at the business end.
Get on them to win a final this year, but 2016 will be their year of contention.
Gecko
Guest
Cam I agree Houli has been rebounding well but he also seems a panicker in pressure moments, comparable to Shaw and Rohan in last year's grand final. He needs to be running into space to be at his best, and I'm surprised the Hawks didn't apply more pressure to him in their two meetings this year. Maybe you're right about Vlastuin but I'm surprised opposition sides aren't focusing more on forcing Grimes, Chaplin and Batchelor to kick more often, rather than allowing them to handball. As an overall unit, the Tigers' defence lacks class and may need Martin or Deledio to spend more time at half back in the next few weeks so they have a plan B come finals time.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
I look forward to seeing how Richmond respond next year to the added pressure that a successful 2015 will bring. The Tigers have not traditionally responded well to high expectations and were lucky to make the finals last year after finishing 5th in 2013. They could learn a lot from Port Adelaide's experience this year and won't want to follow their path.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
The true highs and lows of life that you only experience as a Richmond fan... Cam, I recall an article of yours in April lamenting the Tiges and how they're stuffed for the foreseeable future, now they're a contender! That's not a dig by the way Cam, just an observation. For me, I think there have been a few things go their way later in the season such as Rance committing which I'm sure was a weight earlier on. Its a funny paradox how they can rally for big games like you've pointed out but then fail in the more level contests... almost like the opposite of a flat track bully... but if they get through the elimination final and they face a top 4 in the SF I think they'd back themselves.
Josh
Expert
True, they're playing more physical footy lately and if that holds up in finals it should get them across the line - especially if they finish fifth and get to play a straggler in eighth. My only concern would be if they come up against Geelong that they might find it tough against a more finals-experienced side, but I reckon they would still probably win that (especially given Geelong have lost five of their last six finals appearances). Finally have a finals win under their belts would definitely give them a lot of confidence heading into 2016 and I agree, they have the potential to contend then if all goes well.
Don Freo
Guest
6 out of 8 would be a momentum pattern common to most teams that are in contention. Nothing special there.
Matthew Pittard
Guest
I watched West Coast get belted around by Gold Coast. GOLD COAST. Without Gary Ablett. 'Keeping Winning' dosnt always seem to work. Id love the Tiges to get a lack of media attention and just coast in then get the cherries when they need to.
Deep Thinker
Guest
If the Cats make the finals, nobody will want to play them. They will have some serious momentum under their belt - by then, they would have won about 6 out of the last 8 and would really fancy their chances against the Tigers.
Redb
Roar Guru
Richmond are still fragile mentally. I can't see them winning more than one final.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Some decent points Gecko. Houli has been rebounding well, and Vlastuin is a composed user of the ball. Shane Edwards may well have been leading the B&F when he went down, and he offers something that others don't, but apart from that Richmond's best players have played almost every game, you're right.
Cameron Rose
Expert
As a Richmond man myself, I'd be happy to play Geelong. I think they're finished, and it's time for the Tigers to end that losing streak against them. North is definitely a problem. I don't think the Tiges have peaked too soon, I think the build has been pretty steady, but it's definitely a point worth considering.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It's a tough road to hoe for us, I'll agree Matthew. The answer to that = keep winning!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Some reasonable points there Michael, and both the Hawks and Dockers were certainly "due" for a loss. There's definitely something to that. I think the common link to both of those victories though was a distinct playing style in each first quarter, which the opposition had no immediate answer for. Credit to the Richmond coaching staff for throwing the opposition completely off-kilter. Both times, the opposition came back hard (Hawthorn were in front at half time, Freo cut the deficit from 48 points to less than three goals), and the Tigers were able to respond and kick away. That's maturity.
Cameron Rose
Expert
The Tiges leave themselves open to those accusations WIG, when they have the history they do. It's up to them to change it.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I think we're seeing a bit more steel over the last few months Josh. But you're right, it is all for nothing if they can't win a final this year. As my history shows above, at least then they take another step to being a legitimate contender for 2016.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I'll sign up for it Dingo!
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I seriously want to consider them a contender.....But every time I start to let them get close.....They break me!!!!! Nah seriously to all the Richmond supporters out there I really do hope you guys can take the next Step. I couldn't imagine a better Grand Final then Hawthorn and Richmond for the die hard Victorian Derby! Would be an absolute cracker!!!!
WhereIsGene
Guest
Guys, this is Richmond remember. They look like a million dollars in a home & away game or two each and every year, then crumble in a heap at the business end when there's something to play for. The entire club is allergic to pressure, incapable of handling expectations and masterful at teasing its' fans. This year like every year for the last 30 will be no different.
Josh
Expert
For mine Friday night doesn't do much to change my perception of Richmond. It's not the first time they've beaten a premiership favourite during the season and it won't be the last. What I want to see is them stand up in finals footy - until they do that I don't know if they're any further along than they were in 2012 or 2013. Here's hoping they do it this year (so long as it's not against North!).
Michael Huston
Guest
I agree on that last note. But I've always said, an upset takes two things: One team playing above their usual standards, and another playing below their usual standards. Very, very rarely is it because one team was better than the better team's best. But just because I don't rate them, doesn't mean they can't win the flag, right? Given the way Fremantle and Sydney have spluttered and looked remarkably unconvincing for almost the whole season, Richmond have just as good a chance as them, which nullifies the top four advantage to those two teams. But if Fremantle and Sydney magically get their s*** together and actually bring their best? Oh dear...
Neil from Warrandyte
Guest
I would have thought Hawthorn had a lot to play for last Friday- a top 2 spot on offer and the chance to avoid a trip to Perth in the finals. Maybe, just maybe the tigers had a better game plan and outplayed the hawks on the night.