No one was a bigger North Melbourne booster than me in 2015. At their best, the Roos are an irresistible offensive force. At their worst they can be blown out by bottom-four finishers.
Which North Melbourne should we expect in 2016?
Brent Harvey is so old that he should be an established AFL commentator by now. But here he is, in 2016, ready to play a critical role in the third year of North’s push to their first flag this side of the new millennium.
If Harvey plays in the first Saturday in October – I told you we were going to have to get used to calling it that – he will become the eighth oldest player in the 100-plus year history of top level Australian rules football. Harvey is already second on the all-time games played tally, and if all goes well he will equal Michael Tuck’s record of 426 games played in Round 17 against Port Adelaide.
Just quietly, the AFL appear to have done North Melbourne a solid. Harvey could miss one, two, three, four or six games and still equal Tuck’s record in a game played in his native Victoria. There will be no whining about the game being played in Brisbane to be had this year.
The diminutive running machine remains an influential player. Harvey was one goal away from making it seven straight seasons with 20 disposals and a maximum per game, a feat just six other players completed in one season across the entire league in 2015. The 20/1 line is a marker that, for better or worse, is seen as important for attacking midfielders. That goal column was a black mark on Chris Judd’s middle and later years. Though that Harvey has done it in six of his eight seasons since turning 30 speaks volumes.
Last season’s AFL top 50 had him inside the top 30 players – I had him inside the top 20, which may have been a bit high in retrospect. Also, he is old enough to have plied his trade at the same time that the fathers of this year’s father-son crop of draftees were running around.
His team have made it to the second-last week of the season two years in a row despite finishing sixth and eighth in those years, respectively. The Roos, more than any other team, are built to win here and now, a fact that should suit the 400-game veteran nicely in his 21st year as a top-level professional footballer.
Age disgracefully
In the past few years, North Melbourne have hit the free agency market more than any other team. Their best 22 from 2015 contained no fewer than four players that have joined via the fancy new system: Nick Dal Santo, Jarrad Waite, Shaun Higgins and Robin Nahas (perhaps he’s a fringe player, but he suited up in 18 games including a final). That’s four free agents – one per year – which is behind Melbourne for the most free agents hoovered up since 2012 (yes, Melbourne).
All of these players, by the nature of their free agency status, are veterans of the game. They’re the key reason North enter the season as both the oldest and most experienced list in the competition. Before the year is out, the Roos will have nine players aged 30 years or over. Some of this is to do with Harvey’s longevity – if he’s excluded, they drop to third on the age ladder, but remain number one on experience – but a lot of it isn’t.
On the 30-plus list are Harvey, Dal Santo, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito, Daniel Wells, Waite, Farren Ray, Scott Thompson and Sam Gibson.
The Roos have four important 29-year-olds, too: Andrew Swallow, Lindsay Thomas, Higgins and Nahas.
For the most part, these players are in the best 22, and play important roles individually. That’s fine for this year, but in the years ahead it will be a problem. If Hawthorn’s middle tier of players is as good as it gets in the AFL, then North Melbourne’s is, well, it’s something.
As a reminder, I call the ‘middle’ part of the list players aged 24-28 who have played fewer than 200 games:
Todd Goldstein
Lachlan Hansen
Jack Ziebell
Ben Cunnington
Sam Wright
Jamie Macmillan
Ben Jacobs
Robbie Tarrant
Aaron Mullett
Aaron Black
Majak Daw
Joel Tippett
There’s some honest footballers in that list. There’s also some outright duds. There is also Todd Goldstein, who moonlights as an AFL footballer on the days and nights he’s not fighting crime and saving kittens with his bare hands.
North have been in the premiership frame for the past two seasons, even if they slipped out of it at various points. 2016 could be their best shot yet, now the free agent additions have been with the club for some time, Goldstein has emerged as a planet destroyer, and the schemes of Brad Scott have had some time to marinade.
It could also be their last chance.
The good, the bad and the ugly
North Melbourne were one of three top-eight teams that suffered two blowout losses last season, the other two being Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs. Those two losses came early in the year, with a 77-point capitulation against Adelaide in Round 1, and a poleaxing at the hands of Fremantle in Round 8.
Those were in addition to an even ten-goal loss to Hawthorn in Round 5, and a perplexing 55-point loss to Gold Coast in Round 14.
When North were off, they looked ugly – perhaps the ugliest of the sides that played finals last year. There was one key reason for that in the early part of the season – they lacked any genuine stopping power, both by virtue of talent and scheme. They look a one-on-one defender short, and still do coming into this year.
When I checked in on North’s prospects after ten rounds, I still felt as though they had enough by way of attacking talent to make up for their defensive deficiencies.
And so it proved. Defensively, the Roos made up for their lack of genuine stoppers by stacking the back line, and using Drew Petrie – one of the more underrated Swiss army knives in the game – as a spare defender in a pinch. It saw North’s opponent scoring rate per inside 50 drop from just shy of 50 per cent – i.e. the opposition would score every second inside 50 entry – to 45 per cent between the first and second half of the year.
But it wasn’t all about improved defensive prowess. North’s second-half strength was much more to do with their ability to score and score well.
From Round 11 onwards, and excluding the Restapalooza Round 23, North were the league’s fourth-best offence, putting up an Offensive Efficiency Rating of +18.9 in a line up of games played against the middling sides of last season. When they were good, the Roos were very good, pummelling sides into submission with brute force at the clinches and pushing the ball forward with the lethality of Ben Brown’s curling iron.
Their forward line – made up of free agents, uber-veterans and a couple of rough diamonds – projects as one of the best in the league. At its peak, the Roos forward group are among the best in the competition, perhaps on par with the emerging group at Adelaide, who sit a notch below the amorphous beast at Hawthorn and more traditional West Coast Eagles unit.
The Roos put up nine scores in triple digits last season, the equal fourth-most in the league. However, the manner they did so was unique when compared against the other offensive powerhouses.
Most sides tend to score on the basis of territory; more inside 50s equals more scoring opportunities, equals higher scores. Not North Melbourne. The average inside 50 count of teams that scored 100 points or more was 56.5 – North averaged 54, second lowest in the competition behind Port Adelaide. The Roos only cracked 60 inside 50s in two games last season, and still managed to be as potent as Adelaide (eight times), Hawthorn (seven) and West Coast (seven). More on that in a moment.
Much of the attention paid, though, centres on their midfield. The Roos have a reputation of being tough, workmanlike, hard to play against. But herein lies the rub for the win-now team. They have the forward line, and at face value have built a scheme on defence that will hold up against all but the most attacking sides.
North’s prospects might just come down to one question: can their elite inside midfield group make it happen on a more sustained basis?
Inside strength
The starting six midfielders will probably look like this:
Higgins, Swallow, Dal Santo
Goldstein, Cunnington, Ziebell
That’s a very good core, capable of winning the ball in the clinches with aplomb. The Roos were +1.9 in clearances over the course of the 2015 season, ranked fourth, and were +3.1 in contested possessions, ranked sixth. It’s a clear strength. But if there was a sure-fire way to beat them in 2015, it was to take this inside dominance away from them.
North won the clearances in ten games last season, and went on to win nine of those games, the lone loss coming against the inside meat grinder known as the Sydney Swans. In those 12 games were the Roos lost the clearance battle, they won just four and lost the remaining eight.
Their winning percentage when winning the clearance battle of 90 per cent was the highest in the AFL, while their winning percentage when losing the clearance battle of 33 per cent was ranked 11th. However, the gap between the two, -57 percentage points, was clearly the largest for North – the next largest gap on the clearance win tally was West Coast at -35 percentage points.
This makes a ton of sense. It helps explain their efficiency forward of the ball, as well as their relative deficiency behind it. Simply, North need the ball to win – they can’t expect to make the most of their excellent forward line set, and their defence can’t survive if the opposition is getting first use.
A concern on this front is who the Roos won, and lost, the clearance battle against last year. Losses came against sides that were around the same finishing mark: Fremantle twice, Richmond twice, Adelaide, Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide (among others). Victories were, strangely, against Hawthorn (well, that was a break even), West Coast and Sydney, in addition to most of the bottom part of the ladder.
Outside concerns
Despite their ability to win the ball on the inside – until they don’t – North Melbourne are very much around the middle of the pack on the outside. A full season uncontested possession differential of just +2.5 puts them at 11th on the ladder, and they only took 75 field marks per game, ranked 14th. Hawthorn, the outside kings, took 88 per game.
That’s a measure of the skill deficiency which has emerged at North as the team built their premiership list. They are a fantastic inside midfield team, but the role of spread offence is concentrated in the hands of a few elite kickers.
Champion Data’s 2016 AFL Prospectus pegs North as the sixth-best kicking team in the league, but I don’t buy it. That’s a measure of the cream at the top, rather than the side as a whole: Higgins, Harvey, Dal Santo and Daniel Wells (when he plays, which hopefully he will this year) are elite kicks, but outside of that the quality through the middle drops away quickly.
North instead prefers to attack with abandon, content to use pace and space; more often than not, this comes in the form of slingshots from half back. Harvey, and his 37-year-old legs, and more specifically his right leg, are central to this. It’s a risky strategy, but when it comes off the Roos project as a contender.
When it doesn’t, though, North can be made to look second rate. For much of 2015, that looked like it was this team’s destiny: not quite good enough to make it to the top. Is that the ceiling? With a very agreeable first half of the year, we’ll know if they are premiership material by June.
The Roos are a contender in 2016. But right now, that’s about the level of confidence we can hold with this group.
Khan
Roar Rookie
The NM Hall of Shame must be running out of space. In 2013 they suffered SIX single point losses. IN 2014 they lost to Brisbane, Carlton, GC and Essendon. Last years opening game against Adelaide and the infamous 55 point loss to GC (to make a hattrick of losses from their last three clashes) were crushingly half hearted efforts from start to finish. The R9 loss to Collingwood after leading by 33 at half time was devastating. Yes their best is great but how do you minimise the mediocrity? Tough question. I'd suggest more brief demotions like the richly deserved one handed out to Lindsay Thomas. Highly variable effort levels need to be addressed somehow. They have a lot of squad depth so use it. Majak Daw hardly ever makes the team and is atrocious when he does. Case closed.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
that's a cracking write up Ryan.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
You are quite correct! I've copped a little bit of stick elsewhere for not mentioning the drafting of North Melbourne in recent years. That wasn't the intent of this article, it was to point out that North's best 22 age profile points to a premiership tilt. Tom you might actually be surprised how many clubs have ~ half of their list aged 25 or younger once rookies are included. I'd hazard that the majority are like that.
TomC
Roar Guru
It's not non-contextual; it's just a different context to that which you'd like to apply. I don't think there was anyone who believed the Giants' ladder position at that point was a fair reflection of where they sat against other teams. Certainly no one could credibly argue that it's a better reflection than their position at the end of the year. I actually live blogged that Geelong game - http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/07/11/north-melbourne-kangaroos-vs-geelong-cats-2015-afl-live-scores-blog/. North were good, but Geelong weren't. It's true that in 2015 the Roos started to win the games they should do, which was a contrast to 2014, but that was true of the first half of the year at least as much as the second. I feel like I'm on pretty solid ground in saying that the supposed improvement had as much to do with the quality of the opposition as anything else. Although I should acknowledge that, with their depth and experience, North tend to deal with the rigors of a long season better than most.
TomC
Roar Guru
Apparently North have split their intraclub today into over and under 25s, so that'll be an interesting contest for the sake of this discussion. I doubt most clubs could field 18 over 25s!
Perry Bridge
Guest
#TomC You're dismissal of the rounds 12-20 'streak' is a little non-contextual. For example: The Round 12 game against the Giants up there - heading into this game the Giants were sitting 5th (7 wins from 11) and playing at home. North were 12th (5 from 11). leading into the Round 15 match against Geelong - Geelong where a game ahead of North (10th v 11th) - granted the Rnd 14 Geel match had been cancelled (the Adel Phil Walsh week) - and North had lost to Gold Coast. Those 2 wins are full of merit and the let down was the loss to last placed Gold Coast (although proved to be G.Abletts best game of the year). In Rnd 16 North did what they had to do over Essendon, and the key was to put away and dominate lowly teams rather than just do enough - this was a vital turn around - as my North fan hat criticism of the Roos is that they didn't know their own game - which meant they were reactive - which allows North to go toe to toe with top teams but they didn't know how to bury bottom teams and this made them vulnerable to drop games they should win. So - a 72 pt win over Brisbane, 64 over Carlton and a tougher fight to get over Melbourne by 38 and ironically a come from behind 37 pt win over StKilda were significant wins - especially as to get into finals contention there were not just must wins but % had to be restored. To bookend that phase - a home ground 11 pt win over top team Fremantle. That's the thing - it's easy to dismiss based on end of season positions - but this was the phase during which North went from 12th and season slipping right away to North almost booking a finals spot (guaranteed pretty well Fri of Rnd 22 when Geelong went down). North clearly eased off last 2 weeks with a finals focus - and then did a job on Richmond, and undermanned Sydney and were right in it against the Eagles over there (with some reasonable gripes about umpiring at key moments). Key for North is to transfer that self discovery of Rounds 12-21 into a more consistent season 2016 especially a more stable start. By ROund 9 North must be targeting at least 6-3 compared to 2015's 4-5.
andrew
Guest
I think a lot of people like to 'hate' north, and don’t want to see them do well. I think this is because they have recruited 'some' aged players* This creates the perception they are gunning for a flag, and thus think they have the nucleas to do it. I think a lot of people think that north over-estimate this nucleaus and thus think they are kidding themselves, and thus want to see them fail, in order to prove their own theory right, about their nucleaus not being good enough. I can appreciate the psychology to this, even though it’s a bit childish, its natural enough. The unfair part about it though is, that each year there is 1 winner and 17 losers. As such, its far easier to pick a loser, than it is a winner. So, people who want to see north lose, are most likely to going end up considering themselves as being right. You give me a field of 18 horses, and tell me to find some reasons why the 4th or 5th favourite wont win and its easy pickings. However, the owners of that 4th to 5th favourite and entitled to go into the race with optimism and 'hope' (something that sells a lot of memberships and something that a lot of clubs struggle to deliver). I ultimately think north wont win a flag in the next 2 years, but I think the approach scott has undertaken in his tenure is correct, and I support 90% of his strategic decisions. *although I think the extent of this is grossly over-stated and mis-understood in terms age, rookies, price bracket, and what we have sacrifeced to achieve this. salary cap matters aside (some relevance with greenwood) we have effectively we have given up our final pick in the national draft a few times for waite and Higgins. Delaney for dal santo. And nahas and ray as rookies. Its not like we have traded out a good player or high draft pick.
Anonymous
Roar Pro
It been touched on a bit by others but to elaborate. North’s list is different to many others who have been in a similar situation regarding age profile. The difference being free agency. Where in the past teams have had to give up picks to get older more experienced players (i.e. ‘top up their list’) for a premiership tilt North haven’t had to do this. Dal Santo, Waite and Higgins have all come through free agency. North have taken all their early round picks into the draft every year under Brad Scott. This is distinctly different from teams in similar situations in the past, and certainly different to what Geelong did last year. While they are built for the now, when it comes time for the older players to hang up the boots the core youth is already there. Whether they can step up and lead the team towards another premiership tilt is anyone’s guy. Time will tell.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
That's a pretty old list and really hasn't done much. They are pretty much going to go into the Saint's & Doggies bracket, solid Prelim finalists but won't get the Chocolates in the end. The margin of error is very small. They won't be the last side to miss it.
Don Freo
Guest
I would call him your best player...by a long way...and he will make a big difference this year if he's back to fitness.
Don Freo
Guest
I be onto Harley Bennell...but I would love it if Big Ben found his way to Freo.
Joe
Guest
i think people get carried away about north being all in this year. I've listed the 30 plus year olds below: - Harvey - might be his last year, but North don't rely on him like they used to. He's a half forward or half back, not a 30 possession on baller anymore. - Dal Santo - quality, may be his last year. Was injured for most of last year anyway. May go on for 2017. - Petrie - rock up forward. Still kicked 42 goals last year, 2017 may be his last year. - Firrito - very replaceable. Will be his last year. Hopefully won't be playing much this year. - Wells - has barely played in the last 2 years, North don't rely on him. The injuries may have freshened him up to allow him to finish end of 2018. - Waite - probably his last year. Black, Brown and Wood will be able to fill the void when he goes. - Ray - a rookie anyway, brought in as insurance. Not needed, hopefully won't be playing. - Thompson - is only 30, got drafted late, has another 3 plus years in him anyway. - Gibson - very replaceable, butchers the ball by foot. May struggle to hold his spot this year. So out of those above, it seems that many of those are replaceable and not key to North Melbourne success. Hopefully Waite, Gibson and Firrito go at the end of this year, with Harvey and Petrie to go out together end of 2017. Players such as Jed Anderson, Higgins, Jacobs, Cunnington, Atley, Ziebell, Thomas, Dumont, Wright, Goldstein, McDonald, Garner, Macmillan, Brown all have 5 years at least in them. Those players will carry the roos forward when the 30 year olds retire. NMFC has drafted 17 players total from the last 4 years. So it is not like they have abandoned youth in search of immediate success. I listed 14 players above who are all very good players, and with 8 players drafted in the last 2 years who are yet to debut, more youngsters will be coming through. Overall I think it is a bit of a cop-out to look at the ages and say it is all or nothing this year. Geelong abandoned the whole 2015 draft, with their first selection coming at pick 59, and second at 69. North had already picked 5 kids by then. There is plenty of youth coming through, and players aged 24-28 which will carry the burden when the oldies retire. I think North are going to be contenders this year, but the toughest draw out of all 18 clubs may hurt them though.
Jess
Guest
There's one stark differences between North now and the Saints of '10. The Saints traded draft picks to get experience, North have used at least their first 3 picks in every drafts since Scott has been there. The list has youth, the majority just haven't been subject to the AFL level yet. Whether or not they can all make it at that level remains to be seen, but this cliff everyone's talking about is ridiculous in my opinion.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Good article - personally think ageing players, ordinary draw (relative to some others such as StKilda) and lack of top line youth means this team has already done its dash. I would predict them to fall out of the 8 altogether. I will say though with teams in this mid 6 bracket - north was in that vicinity last year and are about that good this year - a lot more is down to luck in terms of when they play teams and how injured oppositions are when they come up against them. It's a bit unsatisfying I suppose to give a fence sitting oinion but it really is harder to predict the fortunes of teams around this mid bracket who beat top teams one day and lose to cellar dwellers the next. If I had to be definitive I'll try and be bold and say I think north will not play finals.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Just saw this tweet from NMFC: Great news ... we've just broken through 30,000 members in record time: http://bitly.com/1PkdvUz #NMFC
TomC
Roar Guru
I’ve been trying to get to write something on this article all day. Now I’ve finally got a chance, everything has probably already been said in the above comments I haven’t read yet. Oh well. Anyway, I think there’s a touch of glass-half-full in this article. Their impressive offensive record from round 11 onwards surely has more to do with their extraordinary fixture from round 12-20, where they played eight of last year’s bottom nine in eight consecutive games, than any sort of upward trend. Ryan makes a compelling case on why North need first use of the ball to win games. I’m not sure what that really means for 2016; will they drop away if Goldstein fails to replicate his extraordinary season, or does it give them an obvious avenue for improvement? The age profile of this squad makes me a bit worried – they have to find offsets for the declining output of Petrie, Harvey and Dal Santo – but they seem to be doing a good job of getting the most out of younger players who on the face of it seem a bit limited, like Wright and Jacobs. But what I don’t see is much scope for the kind of significant, sustained improvement that they’d need to make up the gap on the other favourites. I agree they’re a contender, but only really if things don’t go quite right for any of Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle or West Coast. Geelong, Port Adelaide and Richmond round out the rest of the pack, in my opinion, and they all (you could quibble about Richmond) have a rather more compelling case for a big leap up. So if North can pinch the flag I suspect it’ll be because the 2016 season becomes a war of attrition. They are well placed to win a war of attrition. They have excellent depth and they seem to manage the pointy end of the season better than others – although I think their finals record is somewhat flattering.
Josh
Expert
While the Swans don't play at ANZ as often as they do the SCG, they still have the advantages of hometown support and not needing to travel interstate to the ground. The SCG is definitely the preferable ground however.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Probably not that relevant - but do you think the memory of the 2013 season lingers on at all? North seemed to find new ways to lose every week - between Nic Nat's mark after the siren, and Adelaide's 5 goals in 5 minutes, they looked absolutely shattered and shellshocked. Could be one of the reasons as to why such an experienced group can be so mentally fragile.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
No doubting that they're at their peak insofar as what they're good at and their identity; the question is whether they can maintain the rage for a full year, and innovate a little to be a bit better on the outside. I'm not game enough to write them off for the flag, but I'd think this has to be the year for them.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
This is going to sound strange, but they're probably closest to the 2011 Cats side. Everyone thought that the Cats were passed it, too old, too reliant on one or two tactical schemes, and everyone was enamored in other rising clubs. While North aren't in the same league talent wise, the narrative is similar. Most other recent premiership teams are Hawthorn, and North Melbourne don't have the all around game of Hawthorn. 2012 Sydney was a build that peaked at the right time, 2010 Collingwood was the same, 2007 & 2009 Cats were a killing machine, and the 2008 Hawks was a Port Adelaide-esque rise before time combined with some innovation. Yeah, so I'd go with the 2011 Cats.