AFL preview series: Hawthorn Hawks

We all know about Hawthorn. And let’s face it, we’re sick of them.

Three premierships in a row. Four in eight years. The most successful side since, well, the Hawks in the 80s.

Hawthorn have won their three most recent flags in different styles, which has only added to their credibility and aura. A low-scoring scrap against Fremantle in 2013. A free-rolling example of footballing perfection against Sydney in 2014.

Read the rest of Cam’s AFL season previews here.

Last year they played within themselves against an underwhelming West Coast, led by a virtuoso performance from Cyril Rioli.

So, they keep getting the job done in the last match of the year, but are they slipping over the course of the season? It’s not an easy question to answer.

In 2013, the Hawks won 19 games, had a percentage of 135.7, and finished first on the ladder.

In 2014, it was 17 wins, a percentage of 140.8, and second.

In 2015, they tallied 16 wins, a percentage of 158.7, and ended up third.

In absolute broad terms, it seems they’re having more bad days, but their best, and their ability to pulverise opposition sides, is getting better. Anecdotally, this stands up.

Last year Hawthorn accounted for fellow top-four finishers by some big margins. An 89-point demolition of Sydney. A 72-thumping of Fremantle. A 46-point defeat of West Coast on the biggest stage.

This was coupled with a 70-point drubbing of the Western Bulldogs early in the season, and a 74-point rout of Adelaide in the second week of finals.

But for the first time in a Clarkson premiership year they lost a final.” Two losses to Port, a side that couldn’t make the eight. GWS and Essendon, also non-finalists, beat them too. Broken concentration is understandable when you’ve been up for so long.

Let’s look at the side that Hawthorn will attempt to become ‘Fourthorn’ with.

There’s a lot of familiar names to look at there, to borrow from an Alastair Clarkson phrase, they do keep losing soldiers.

Brian Lake, David Hale and Matthew Suckling are no longer at the club after last year’s grand final side, but the Hawks been through something similar before. From their 2013 premiership side, they lost Lance Franklin, Brad Sewell, Brent Guerra, Max Bailey and Jonathon Simpkin but were able to cover these players more than adequately.

Hawthorn can cover those that have left again, but their depth is starting to look on the thin side, as always happens with teams that spend a long time at the top. But within the best 22 itself, it’s very deep.

The backline is a mix of experience, skill and versatility.

Josh Gibson is the director of operations in the back half when Luke Hodge or Sam Mitchell aren’t deployed there, and may have to play taller this year as a genuine key position player, more than he has done in the past.

James Frawley will be the cornerstone full-back, and has a premiership medal to accompany him to sleep, to ward off the nightmares of his Melbourne years. He’s a good player that had a great finals series, stepping up specifically when required.

Ben Stratton can play tall or small, and will need to do both at various stages this season. Grant Birchall will run the flanks, setting up many a forward thrust with his precise disposal. Taylor Duryea is a good mark, neat user, and plays with a toughness that belies his frame. Good player.

Shaun Burgoyne is the other general of the Hawk defence. He’ll do as he always does, exuding calm, control and poise. He and Sam Mitchell are peerless when it comes to decision-making and execution. A big-game player, watch for him to stifle a yawn in matches against lesser sides.

In reserve, Matt Spangher was part of the 2014 flag, and will push for selection if he can get his body right. Angus Litherland has looked good when he’s had his chances. Daniel Howe has impressed in the pre-season and looks likely to get a crack from Round 1.

The Hawk midfield has a core group of inside players that all link up for big amounts of uncontested possession too, when the Hawthorn machine is rolling.

Sam Mitchell has the quickest football mind we may have ever seen, and because of being highly skilled on both sides of his body, he is impossible to corner. Like Burgoyne above, he looks as if he could play until he is 50.

Luke Hodge has had enough superlatives written about every aspect of him that there doesn’t need any more added here. Drink-driving is obviously extremely irresponsible and dangerous, but it was refreshing in this era of overkill professionalism and sports science smothering to see that he can have a few beers on the eve of finals, knowing he’ll still deliver as he does.

Jordan Lewis is the third member of the experienced triumvirate, coming off a disappointing season where his stats were OK, but his influence was minimal. He was often unclean in and around the contest.

Brad Hill, Isaac Smith and Billy Hartung will run the wings, where their speed and running capacity can be used to full effect when the Hawks are on their full offensive spread. How do they get so free, we always seem to ask.

These guys complement the clearance work of Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis and Liam Shiels. The latter averaged over seven tackles a match last season too, to always ensure that if his team wasn’t winning the ball, the opposition would find it difficult to make a clean getaway.

Ben McEvoy and Jonathon Ceglar will share ruck and forward duties, probably in that order. They’re both capable enough ruckmen, and will compete enough to give their midfield a chance at stoppages. Given Jarryd Roughead’s absence for an unknown amount of time this season, they’ll also be crucial when resting inside 50.

The dynamic of the Hawthorn forward-line without Roughead will be one of the interesting observation points through the first half of the year. Their all ground system enables so many players to be free in space, that they should be able to cover him adequately. He wasn’t in their top three for contested marks last season.

Ryan Shoenmakers played forward to good effect through most of 2015, and it was too his credit that his three best matches of the year were the finals he played. Through the regular season he averaged 11 disposals and 3.5 marks a game. In September, he lifted those numbers to 18 and 8. That should give him the confidence to take his game to the next level.

Jack Gunston keeps getting better and better each year, having more impact, becoming more consistent and improving himself as an all-round footballer. Luke Breust is Gunston’s major partner-in-crime down there, and has become a perennial 50 goals a year player.

Cyril Rioli has by far-and-away his best season yet in 2015, topping off his work with a Norm Smith medal. I wrote about him as part of our Roar Top 50 last week, where he slotted into a mid-20s position.

Paul Puopolo has forged a magnificent career for himself as a pressure and harassment specialist, and has three premiership medals as an important member of the side. He improved his goals, goal assists and tackles year on year over 2014 and 2015, and will be looking to raise those numbers again.

James Sicily looked good against weak opposition at times last year, and will get his chance to play a smaller type lead-up role with his sure hands. Tim O’Brien may see daylight in his fourth year on the list. Jack Fitzpatrick has a few strings to his bow, and can play a role if asked.

Hawthorn’s seamless ball movement is based on the running patterns of the most cohesive on-field unit in the history of the game. It’s easy to see, hard to identify a way to stop it, and damn near impossible to prevent on a consistent basis.

Alastair Clarkson is the best in the business by a margin, and the evidence is mounting that he might just be the greatest coach of all time. If he delivers another flag this year, then it’s beyond dispute.

In our lives, we’ve only ever known a world that includes sliced bread, penicillin and television. There are times when it feels like the Hawks being premiers is a part of that group.

The end will come for their day of constant contention, but it won’t be this year.

Predicted ladder spread: first – fourth

Predicted finish: third

Best and fairest: Sam Mitchell

Leading goalkicker: Jack Gunston

All-Australian potential: Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Grant Birchall, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Jack Gunston

Rising Star candidates: Daniel Howe

Current ladder
3. Hawthorn
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Sydney
8. GWS
9. Collingwood
10. Adelaide
11. North Melbourne
12. Melbourne
13. Gold Coast
14. Port Adelaide
15. St Kilda
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Essendon