This week I came across an article penned by NRL.com writers announcing that the only side to make the eight from a 0-5 position were the Brisbane Broncos in 1999, where they limped in thanks to 14 straight wins mid-season.
There are only three other sides to have made the finals from such a perilous position, and they were all in the 50s and 60s.
I believe that this Sydney Roosters side has the ability and personnel to become the not only just the fifth side to make finals from a ‘zero and five’ or whatever the number gets up to, but to press for the Premiership.
I seem to find that already the Roosters seem to have been written off by many pundits as any chance of being able to conjure up a season worthy of being a challenger. This is a side that has secured three straight minor premierships previous to this season, as well as being the title holders just three seasons ago.
And last I checked, it’s only Round 6 of a 26-round season. Remember the Titans sitting atop the ladder last year after six rounds and everyone thinking they were a genuine chance to play finals? Oh, how we laugh now. The fact of the matter is, the season is a long hard slog, and many twists and turns happen before September hits.
Admittedly, the chooks have lost some firepower from their previous years. James Maloney, Michael Jennings and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck are all representative players, play key positions, and by all reports, are decent young men.
A tough trio to lose at the best of time but decisions had to be made for the future and betterment of the club and these three all commanded too much money when the rest of the squad was taken into consideration.
To combat these losses, the Roosters recruited exciting young prospects in Jayden Nikorima and English international Joe Burgess as well as promoting youth player Latrell Mitchell.
These youngsters have taken longer than anticipated to find their feet in the NRL, with Burgess having been dropped twice, Nikorima benched sporadically and Mitchell changing positions.
To compact this, the inexperience of fellow developed players such as Jackson Hastings, Kane Evans and Dale Copley haven’t fired despite their season or so more of experience. Add to this the injuries of key players Jared Warea-Hargreaves and Boyd Corder, as well as the now-infamous Mitchell Pearce scandal and subsequent suspension, it was almost like the perfect storm hit the Roosters before they knew what happened.
Luckily for the Bondi boys, it is only Round 6. They still have the same general core of hard-working, reliable and effective players such as Mitch Aubusson, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Aiden Guerra and Club Captain Jake Friend.
With any luck the Roosters should have their strongest side together for Round 11, potentially against Canterbury. Warea-Hargreaves and Cordner are due back from injury around that time, and Pearce should be playing his third match back.
The pressure on the youngsters should then subside substantially as the pack inherits a fair bit more go-forward, something the Roosters have severely lacked, as well as the leading of an experienced half-back around the field.
Origin will then hit, with rep regulars Guerra and Cordner likely to again get picked. Blake Ferguson is every change for a NSW wing spot, while Pearce will more than likely get over-looked due to the lack of game-time. Not ideal, but the bye schedule is favourable and will play twice before Origin, once against the Warriors and then against an equally diminished Parramatta.
Following the commencement of Origin at Round 13, the Roosters then play five bottom eight sides from last year as well as understrength Storm twice directly after Origin games.
Looking at the ladder standings from last season gives you a fair indication of what the points you might need to qualify for finals. 28 points was enough to get St.George-Illawarra through to the eighth spot, with 12 wins and two byes.
Budgeting for a similar scenario for the Roosters means they need to win at least five matches before Round 13 at least if they are to win the seven games that they are expected to after it.
Penrith, St.George-Illawarra, Newcastle, Gold Coast and Canterbury reads the five matches the Roosters have after facing South Sydney at ANZ on Friday night. Doesn’t seem so farfetched now does it?
The strongest Roosters 17 will have in total 10 internationals, six Origin Representatives and a myriad of Junior Kangaroos and Kiwis members, a coach with a 70 per cent win ratio and the basis of a team who, barring injury, could have taken it all the way last season, and we are writing them off?
Imagine the experience Mitchell, Nikorima, Hastings, Burgess, Evans et al are getting at the moment. Sure, they are losing games, but apart from the embarrassment of North Queensland and the ambush in Round 1 from the Bunnies, the Roosters have lost by one point to Canberra, two points to Manly and in golden point to the Warriors.
That’s three close losses to teams that are sure to be contenders for finals, all with a side that is still finding its feet and missing arguably its three best players.
I haven’t even mentioned the ‘worst-kept secret’ about Nick Politis chasing Jarryd Hayne tooth and nail should be fail in his second bid in the NFL, or the fact that Sonny-Bill is almost a dead cert to return once his Olympic Dream is decided, be that before June 30 or next season.
The fact of the matter is, records are meant to be broken. The Roosters have the side to buck all trends and become the first side in history to win from a 0-5 start, and hell they could even do it from eighth spot.
Does anyone remember the 11 straight wins last year that only ended at semi-final time? Does anyone remember that JWH and Pearce were both out for a significant time of this? Momentum is an amazing thing to gain in sport and a bloody hard thing to stop once it gets going.
Just ask the Cowboys of 2015. Until the Roosters are mathematically out of the Top eight race, I’m still giving them every chance.
Last look on the TAB had them $41 to win the Comp, value if I’ve ever seen it.
Jarrod Free
Roar Rookie
At this point there is almost no chance of that happening. The young players are still too raw. Bucketloads of potential and ability, certainly, but not yet good enough at NRL level to pull the Roosters out of their hole. They will fill the hole a little bit, but only enough to poke their head out the top, not enough to climb out all the way.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
He who laughs last.......................
peeeko
Roar Guru
i think you are the one that needs to check http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/sydney-roosters/warriors-sign-sydney-roosters-fullback-roger-tuivasasheck-and-release-sam-tomkins-20150407-1mg6hr.html
Kulturtrager
Guest
Easts will have one of those inconsistent seasons that they are so good at. They've lost so many creative players that they simply won't be able to get past the best teams.
James Dean ( seriously )
Guest
And the stench is from their breath , with a mouth fulla teeth that look like they've been chewin on rocks .
James Dean ( seriously )
Guest
Raiders from 4th in 89 .
The EYE-BALL Opinion
Roar Pro
Cannot argue with your logic or data - perhaps I have rated reputations and players too generously ... but we'll see who has the better grip as the season develops. Tigers win 2 games at home and then lose 2 away and home game and already the 'badlands' loom large. Most likely teams to make the finals in addition to the three previously mentioned seem to be - [no particular order] Canberra, Cronulla, Souths, Bulldogs, and Parramatta.
up in the north
Roar Rookie
Steveng. Mate you've got selective texting. At this time of every season the good clubs try out combinations and moves. Don't be confused with scorelines at this early stage. As my ol' grandma's advice says, the proof of a pudding is in the eating. After the Origin period when injuries sort the teams out we'll see a bit more clearly. Until then just watch how the elite sides play on another level.
steveng
Roar Rookie
I disagree with what you predict and classify as the top 3 and your statement of “but then for mine there are only three teams that look likely at the moment and one of them [Storm] is yet to play a ranked team. The other two ‘Broncos and Cowboys’ are jog trotting in the lead at the moment with very little pressure bubbling forth” jog trotting??? Who have the Broncos played; Eels, Warriors, Panthers (lost and never looked like winning) Cowboys (just won) Titans (who gave them a run for their money and they will beat then next time) and the poor scoreless Dragons, who have the Cowboys played; Sharks, Eels (lost and never looked like winning) Roosters, Broncos (lost and they were the better side) Dragons and who have the Storm played; Dragons (just won) Titans, Warriors and lastly the Knights which they beat by 2 points 18-14 so if you look at these so called top 3 that you predict they haven’t really played the other top contenders like the Bulldogs, Rabbitohs Raiders and Wests Tigers and some of the rest that will come up through the ranks once they get their injured players back and the suspended players back. For mine the Broncos look the most susceptible as they have had a near full side for the 6 rounds and in their last 2 games have looked very ordinary and the Cows are the same as are the Storm.
Wascally Wabbit
Guest
Josh, records can be broken, but it won't be the Roosters this year. JWH and Cordner are not due back for another 6 weeks What will the Chooks win/loss be by then? Bye bye Birdies !
James Dean ( seriously )
Guest
Obviously , 3 hats on 3 supremely intelligent heads . Remove tongue ...... Now .
The EYE-BALL Opinion
Roar Pro
Enjoyed the article - a fan based comment full of optimism is always full of insight. I ask - how do you compare Napa's and Guerra form this season? For me Guerra. Napa, Moa, Evans, and Klemmer and a few other Bulldog forwards, all struggling with their go-forward. They look pedestrian when taking up the ball - a far cry from last season when they hit the line with gusto. This season they look battered and bruised and limp at the line. Now - I'm not sure if this is the short turn arounds, the 8 man interchange, or the defence line getting up a lot quicker. As you said it is only 5 completed rounds and very early in the season. No doubt Cordner and WHG will have an impact but, forwards like Moa who I rate highly, and the rest of the Roosters pack rank well down on stats this season when compared with other forward packs. For mine Hastings is the problem - poor kick choices, inferior passing game, worse than Pearce when it comes to attacking 22 options, and he has no real command of the game plan. Robinson is a rated coach, and with this sides roster, even without the 3 players who will make a difference [Pearce, Cordner, and WHG], the pack is turning up and trying to compete. I believe they have bigger issues happening - why did they let Jennings go? Why did they not keep Maloney and get rid of Pearce? I understand RTS's move given the backup in LM - but he is hardly up to the mark at the moment behind a contained side. When one measures the current Roosters forwards - SM, JF, DN, MA, SST and AG, with KE on the bench, they should be performing better than they are ... and then the weaker back line - where is Tupou, hardly anywhere near his best form, same as Ferguson, the only player performing in that backline is SKD, and he is so far in front of the next player you would need glasses to see them in the distance. No - they are not at their best and all the history you espoused as a reason why they will still make the eight, I can't agree ... but then for mine there are only three teams that look likely at the moment and one of them [Storm] is yet to play a ranked team. The other two 'Broncos and Cowboys' are jog trotting in the lead at the moment with very little pressure bubbling forth, perhaps that is what will help you in your dream.
steveng
Roar Rookie
First before anything else they will have to overcome the Rabbits tonight, that is all I can say lol and after we beat the Chooks that will be another hurdle that they will have to overcome towards their hurdles of 'Why the Roosters will make the finals and can still win it all'???
up in the north
Roar Rookie
Bring back the OIKSTER
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Terry, Lamb of God, you take a away the sins of Josh Reynolds...and so on..
eagleJack
Roar Guru
There is only one oikee
Con Scortis
Roar Guru
Every club has their own version of Oikee. 3 Hats is South's very own Oikee.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I THINK your caps LOCK might be ON the BLINK...
The Barry
Roar Guru
Dogs had Terry Lamb though. Baa could do anything.
3 Hats
Guest
NO, not EVERYONE would know about it at all as 99% of people are too lazy to even do the research. I am NOT! How many would know that 2 of the 4 clubs mentioned were not 0 and 5 as the article suggests but 1 draw and 4 losses? NOT many at all (The So called Professional Journalist didn't even know this.) It was the TOP 4 back then, not Top 5 mate and I didn't get lost in the article at all. The TOP 5 started in 1973. YOU are making out that the 99 Broncos were this supreme team, the be all and end all, THEY WERE NOT. The Souths of 1957 was much better. 1957 Souths team winning percentage is 63.2% 1999 Broncos is 52% The Roosters have as much chance of making the Top 8 as I have of flying to the MOON. BUCKLEYS!