Given that hardly anything separates first to sixth on the AFL ladder (and seventh to eighth are snapping at the heels), I thought it would be interesting to do some star-gazing with a view to predict how the AFL ladder would pan out at the end season 2016.
I will admit from the outset there is not a lot of science behind this – very much a cursory look at home ground advantage, current ladder position and how each team has been trending over the last few weeks.
I have also assumed that the top eight is now set – Port and Melbourne have to play too much catch-up from here on. Richmond, as I have written previously, have ninth for the taking.
From the analysis below, it would appear I have been very hard on North Melbourne (as have many this year). Many will also argue I have also been overly kind to Fremantle, banking on them to defeat Geelong (their only loss on my radar heading into the finals), Sydney, and the Bulldogs at Subi – three big upsets.
So here is the win-loss column, and also each team’s final tally.
| Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | FINAL |
| Geel | Win (STk) | Bye | Win (Syd) | Loss (Fre) | Win (Adel) | Win (WB) | Win (Ess) | Win (Rich) | Win (Bris) | Win (Melb) | |
| 40 | 44 | 44 | 48 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 68 | 72 | 72 |
| Syd | Bye | Win (WB) | Loss (Gee) | Win (Haw) | Win (Carl) | Loss (Fre) | Win (Port) | Win (StK) | Win (North) | Win (Rich) | |
| 40 | 40 | 44 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 68 | 68 |
| North M | Loss (Adel) | Bye | Loss (WCE) | Win (Port) | Win (Coll) | Win (StK) | Loss (WB) | Loss (Haw) | Loss (Syd) | Win (GWS) | |
| 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 56 | 56 |
| Haw | Win (GC) | Bye | Win (Port) | Loss (Syd) | Win (Rich) | Win (Carl) | Win (Melb) | Win (NM) | Loss (WC) | Win (Coll) | |
| 40 | 44 | 44 | 48 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 64 | 68 | 68 |
| GWS | Win (Carl) | Bye | Win (Coll) | Win (Bris) | Win (Port) | Win (Rich) | Win (G.C) | Win (W.C) | Win (Fre) | Loss (North) | |
| 36 | 40 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 68 | 68 | 68 |
| W.B. | Bye | Loss (Syd) | Win (Rich) | Win (G.C) | Win (StK) | Loss (Gee) | Win (NM) | Win (Coll) | Win (Ess) | Loss (Fre) | |
| 36 | 36 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| W.C | Bye | Win (Ess) | Win (NM) | Win (Carl) | Win (Melb) | Win (Coll) | Win (Freo) | Loss (GWS) | Win (Haw) | Loss (Ade) | |
| 32 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 56 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Adel | Win (NM) | Win (Melb) | Win (Carl) | Win (Coll) | Loss (Gee) | Win (Ess) | Win (Bris) | Win (Fre) | Win (Port) | Win (WC) | |
| 32 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 68 | 68 |
There are a few things to take away.
• Over the back-half of the season, GWS and Adelaide have a great chance to climb into the top four. GWS do not play a top eight team until Round 21.
• There may never have been a greater emphasis on percentage than this season – I have GWS ahead of Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn (poor comparably) in this respect.
• While improving Fremantle won’t feature as finalists in 2016, they have four huge home games against Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs – this will have a significant bearing on the top four and a role for them to be party-poopers.
• Round 23 has three cracking games – Fremantle (the emotion of Matthew Pavlich’s last match) versus the Bulldogs, GWS versus North Melbourne, and Adelaide versus West Coast.
• North Melbourne play the Bulldogs, Sydney, Hawthorn and GWS in the last four rounds. The Swans versus Kangaroos match in Tasmania in Round 22 is arguably the top-four circuit breaker for the red and white.
• With the volume of clutch games in the last couple of rounds, we may not be hearing much of the dreaded ‘R’ (resting) word this year.
Over to you, Roarers to pick the final positions in the eight, with my eight below. My attempt sees a tantalising first round of finals matches come September, including a big brother-little brother clash in Sydney at Spotless.
Ladder
Geelong – 72
GWS – 68
Sydney – 68
Adelaide – 68
Hawthorn – 68
West Coast – 60
Western Bulldogs – 60
North Melbourne – 56
It is going to be an absorbing race home.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Different proposition at home. Don't forget - on Friday night Freo were off a 6 day break, had to travel and play Collingwood fresh off their bye. It's funny - 2 years ago Chris Scott was publicly saying the 6 day break issue was a furphy - but on Friday night on SEN he admitted that it is an issue especially in the North scenario of 2 6 day breaks culminating in a travel to take on a side fresh off their bye. (this is Chris - not Brad - saying this). Well - Freo was a 7 and 6 day break and travelling taking on a team off their bye - - so, I'm willing to cut them some slack.
Perry Bridge
Guest
I do see North Melbourne as the key player in the run home. A little luck with injuries last couple of weeks (or better kicking against Hawks) and they'd still be top 2. North get a decent break now. The health of their list is crucial - to be able to reabsorb Higgins/Jacobs/Wright in the run home. North will go into the Eagles in Perth (sans Naitanui) giving themselves a big chance - especially if Goldstein is rested and rejuvenated. Facing up to Hawthorn will not hold any fears for North now - they know what to do to rattle and conquer the Hawks - just gotta kick straighter. And the Swans (Tippett back by then or not?) in Hobart will be a very interesting game before hosting the Giants at Etihad. These are winnable games. Luck still comes into it - avoid 1st quarter injuries!! Fremantle at Domain will surprise a few before seasons end - at Domain they play Geelong, Swans, Eagles, Adelaide and Doggies and take on the Giants at Spotless. Will the Dockers have a say in the shaping of the top 8 and top 4. Very likely. When is Sandilands back? StKilda managed to blow out the assumptions of this predictive table - first cab off the rank for the predicted top team. Geelong have an issue - they aren't actually that good but who is this year. So - the StKilda factor - they should've got Hawthorn in Tassie and a late surge gave North a real fright. In the run home the Saints take on Doggies, North and Swans at Etihad. For Sydney in particular this will be a danger game. Port too - get to host the Hawks and the Giants, plus a showdown with the Crows on the home track this year - do we assume they'll pluck one of those as an 'upset'. I just love the run home predictions - especially in this case - when that top left hand first prediction is the first one to go wrong.
Peppsy
Roar Guru
Not even a full round and already this is wrong. What is with this season.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Definitely a looong way to go, but my point being is they did more than just struggle to get past them and did better than most sides (and I don't know if they've been getting worse as the season's gone on, Essendon just pushed GWS to the dying stages, while Brisbane weren't disgraced by the Saints the week before the Dockers, in fact there were a few who had tipped both Essendon and Brisbane against Freo). Also keeping in mind last night they had to use just about all of their available squad to be able to name some emergencies, somaybe they don't even need to wait for development to get better this season as some of their key players return from injury.
Cat
Roar Guru
They beat 17th and 18th on the ladder, with both of those sides getting far worse the longer the season drags on. While I don't expect Freo to be as bad as they were last night, they have a long, long way to go.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
They're playing a heap of inexperienced young players at the moment, so they're going to have their ups and downs. They didn't just fall over the line against Brisbane and Essendon, but beat them with totals and margins that most other sides haven't been able to do against them. They're trying to build something. They were crud last night but hopefully that's a just one of those one step back as they kick on with a few more forward ones.
Rocko
Roar Guru
AB and Rob - ha ha I thought exactly that last night watching them. But I needed to throw an L in there somewhere, and the away game at Subi was the easiest one to justify. Otherwise teams almost go through completely undefeated which collectively is unrealistic.
rob
Guest
All im gunna say is theres a fair chance freo wont win another game this season let alone shape the top 4 with anything other than a % booster for the sides they play. Admittedly you may not have seen them play collingwood when you wrote this article but they were at under 18 level. Collingwood not really that far ahead. Freo this year have beaten Essendon, Brisbane and a flaky Port (play the game again and I m betting port win). Living in WA i have the misfortune of seeing both them and the eagles on a regular basis and trust me - Freo wont beat Sydney or Geelong.
AB
Guest
Based on last night's performance, the prospect of Freo beating any of the top eight sides this year seems very unlikely.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Still not discounting Hawthorn - as a Swans fan myself still haunted!
Rocko
Roar Guru
Tom cheers - some teams have relatively light runs home and it does seem too easy! Amazing how tight 1-8 is and great for the competition
Swannies
Guest
A Geelong Sydney GF looks most likely...can't see either team dropping more than 2 games for the remainder of the season. At 1 and 2 they will be impossible to beat at home in the finals.
TomC
Roar Guru
It's a good bit of work. Cheers to the writer. As others have said, not every team will take advantage of a favourable draw, if they have one. There aren't really any teams this year that seem so far ahead of the rest of the pack that they can be relied on to win eight of their remaining nine games. So obviously it'll turn out differently, probably quite a bit differently, and it'll be interesting to look back and see who couldn't quite live up to the expectations we had at this point.
Freo As
Guest
Big Sandi should be back in the closing stages, which will add a whole new degree of difficulty playing us.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Pope - agree it is hard to pick the upset loss and you could well argue some plain sailing there in the wins and losses. However, I think North look very sick to make the top 4. Their matches against West Coast and Bulldogs will be huge in the next few weeks.
I hate pies
Guest
This is pretty much what I came up with, although from what I saw from GWS last week against Essendon they're still very vulnerable away from home, and I reckon they'll drop at least one against a middling team away from home. I reckon the dogs will come back from the brink after the bye; they'll get 3 or 4 important players back (particularly in their backline) and will be refreshed. The game against Sydney will pretty much seal their top 4 chances - if they win they're in, if they lose they're 6th or 7th. I'm hoping that Sydney will struggle without Tippet. I also think Freo will do some damage in the second half of the year. North aren't up to it, just like everyone except their supporters said.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Sammy - you nailed my biggest dilemma - order of the top 4 without a formula to work out %. The Crows are definitely looking very good.
I hate pies
Guest
Yep Drew's had it. Can't run, can't turn.
Cat
Roar Guru
As a Cats fan I have struggled with it too. Each individual game I can't see us losing but add them all together and it just becomes less likely. A twelve game winning steak heading into finals, if we don't drop a game. Not sure that is optimal. I certainly never want to lose a game but sometimes its a good reality check. Currently the game that worries me most is the Sydney game. I'm not worried about being able to outplay Sydney, especially in Geelong, however, games after byes are 50/50 no matter who you play. I just hope we don't come out too lackadaisical after a week off. Freo is a game we could drop also, definitely a team we have no played our best against in several years, and it's in Perth.
Wilson
Roar Guru
North have given us some good players over the Year but you did get one of our best young players last year.